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View Poll Results: Will self driving autos kill car insurance?
Of course 42 16.28%
Maybe but not for a long time 187 72.48%
I'm a luddite... 29 11.24%
Voters: 258. You may not vote on this poll

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  #2061  
Old 07-10-2018, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by campbell View Post
there are some body languages that even humans can't read. like the girl glued to her cell phone when the light changes. then it's a poisson process of when she realizes at time t that the light changed and steps right into the intersection without even looking
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  #2062  
Old 07-12-2018, 10:37 AM
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They're going to need a lot more information to do that. Seems like video would be the natural choice. I wonder how much computing power would be needed to process the video in real time and make a decisions based on it?

It would also be great for military drones to anticipate peoples reactions. Terminator anybody?
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  #2063  
Old 07-12-2018, 11:34 AM
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Alternatively we could teach cars to think like Boston Cabbies. They don't need to read "body-language".
Instead they just run you the f*** over if you don't get out of the f***ing way, you f***!!!
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  #2064  
Old 07-12-2018, 01:50 PM
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Wow. Thanks for the additional information and yeah... I'm feeling pretty good about all of my "over" bets.
Decided to compile all of my "over" bets. Here's what I've found so far. Bottom one has already come & gone & I was right on that one:

2018
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Originally Posted by twig93 View Post
I will take the "over" on GM mass-producing a steering-wheel-less car in 2019.

Let's define "mass produce" as meaning that at least 5,000 units have rolled off the assembly line by midnight on 12/31/2019. Reasonable?

ETA: I should add the additional caveat that these cars have to actually be reasonably safe to operate on regular roads. I mean, if GM makes them but they don't work... that doesn't count.
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Originally Posted by twig93 View Post
I was referring to Level V, which is supposedly going to be available sometime next year. (I'll believe it when I see it, but that's what the link earlier in this thread says.)
Aren't AV cars already safer than humans?
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In their current state? I don't think so. I'm not even sure that data exists to support or contradict this claim given that most are either relying on a human backup or are only being used in an extremely limited set of circumstances.

In 100 years? Almost certainly.

In 2 years? I doubt it.
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Originally Posted by twig93 View Post
All right, for the purposes of my "I'll take the over" statement, I'm going to define "mass produced and in service" as meaning that there are at least 1,500 cars produced and at least 1,000 in service by 12/31/2019, capable of traveling wherever a passenger wants to travel in the metro area where deployed at approximately the same speed a human-operated taxi would travel.

That seems like a pretty modest definition of "mass produced". I read recently that Honda's factory in Ohio is producing 1,800 cars PER DAY, so this is less than one day's production.

Edited to add blue section to further clarify what "in service" means.
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Amending my "over/under" to clarify that "in service" means "in service as a taxicab capable of going wherever the passenger wants to go (within reason) at approximately the same speed a human-operated taxi would travel." I think low-speed driverless shuttles that only go on a short predetermined route are already a thing in Las Vegas.
2017
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Audi... "promises to bring fully autonomous vehicles to market in 2020."

I'm going to go ahead & counter-predict that they will not have a fully autonomous vehicle on the road before 1/1/2021. Fully autonomous means that it can go anywhere it's owner wants it to (that can currently be accessed by a regular human-driven vehicle) without a driver prepared to take over (like a human being isn't even in the vehicle, or is drunk, or too young to drive or blind or whatever).
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Originally Posted by twig93 View Post
If it's legal to use on public roads and few people actually buy it, that would still count as Ford "offering" the car. I assume it will be cost-prohibitive and not sell very well. My basis for taking the "over" is that I don't think that such a car will be feasible to actually use in any real sense by 2021.

I am definitely not talking about some prototype that basically works on a closed course. That might exist by 2021... heck it might already exist. I am saying that when I go to buy a car in 2021 that I will use to commute to work and drive to church and the grocery store and friends' homes and take to the beach once a year and to visit my family at Christmas once a year... a car with no steering wheel or gas or brake pedal is not going to be an option for me in 2021... at any price.
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I would say self-driving Uber taxis with no emergency human backup driver. On regular roads with regular drivers in a medium to large city (some place most of us have heard of).

I'd bet money that won't happen in 2017.
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  #2065  
Old 07-12-2018, 02:47 PM
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Originally Posted by twig93 View Post
Decided to compile all of my "over" bets. Here's what I've found so far. Bottom one has already come & gone & I was right on that one:
Sure. But nobody took you up on that bet, so it's not much of a 'bet' really. Some of your other bets are more meaningful.

-I bet there will be several thousand driverless cars in service next year. (Admittedly your definition of "in-service" may be broader than the working business model.)

-I bet (with less certainty) in 2021 that you will be able to buy a driverless car that takes you the places you listed.
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Last edited by Sredni Vashtar; 07-12-2018 at 02:54 PM..
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  #2066  
Old 07-12-2018, 02:56 PM
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Sure. But nobody took you up on that bet, so it's not much of a 'bet' really.
You said that there would be a "success" in 2017 if someone could define what success meant. I defined what it meant, and it didn't happen.

If you want to retroactively back down on your earlier claim, fine.
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  #2067  
Old 07-12-2018, 03:14 PM
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Originally Posted by twig93 View Post
You said that there would be a "success" in 2017 if someone could define what success meant. I defined what it meant, and it didn't happen.

If you want to retroactively back down on your earlier claim, fine.
The gung ho folks keep saying it's just around the corner. But actual experience (and horrible accidents) are really not helping the perception of the general public that autonomous is a good idea. Even if it really is safer, which I doubt, why hasn't the NTSB created safety standards and consistent, transparent reporting of problems as they arise? So far, the only thing I have seen that really makes sense is Toyota moving to use the various technologies to make driving better and safer for actual human beings. I think this needs to come first before science fiction can come true.

Twig and I have both pooh-poohed a lot of target dates, and those dates have NOT been met. Have any "successes" been recorded that fulfilled the ever-optimistic predictions?
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  #2068  
Old 07-12-2018, 03:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar View Post
-I bet (with less certainty) in 2021 that you will be able to buy a driverless car that takes you the places you listed.
I'd say no to this, at least in the US. Audi can't even bring it's Level 3 features or fancy headlights to the US yet because of regulatory hurdles. As fast as it seems some states are moving, the government is slow.

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Originally Posted by JMO View Post
The gung ho folks keep saying it's just around the corner. But actual experience (and horrible accidents) are really not helping the perception of the general public that autonomous is a good idea. Even if it really is safer, which I doubt, why hasn't the NTSB created safety standards and consistent, transparent reporting of problems as they arise? So far, the only thing I have seen that really makes sense is Toyota moving to use the various technologies to make driving better and safer for actual human beings. I think this needs to come first before science fiction can come true.

Twig and I have both pooh-poohed a lot of target dates, and those dates have NOT been met. Have any "successes" been recorded that fulfilled the ever-optimistic predictions?
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  #2069  
Old 07-12-2018, 04:33 PM
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Originally Posted by twig93 View Post
You said that there would be a "success" in 2017 if someone could define what success meant. I defined what it meant, and it didn't happen.

If you want to retroactively back down on your earlier claim, fine.
Perhaps I should have said, "if we can agree to a definition of success".

Obviously I'm not about to make a bet before agreeing to the terms.

Quote:
Originally Posted by twig93 View Post
I would say self-driving Uber taxis with no emergency human backup driver. On regular roads with regular drivers in a medium to large city (some place most of us have heard of).

I'd bet money that won't happen in 2017.
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Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar View Post
Yeah, I'm not going to go that far. I think Tesla will have the technology. I do not know if Uber will, or if state and federal and local regulators will clear the way.

Give it another year and I'd take that bet.
FWIW, Tesla absolutely does not have the technology, and neither does Uber.

However at the end of 2017 Waymo had cars on public streets with non-employee passengers, and a safety guy sitting in the backseat, with nothing but an "emergency stop-button." That would fit my own less dramatic definition of a success.
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His enemies called for peace, but he brought them death.
Sredni Vashtar the Beautiful.

Last edited by Sredni Vashtar; 07-12-2018 at 04:45 PM..
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  #2070  
Old 07-12-2018, 04:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar View Post
Perhaps I should have said, "if we can agree to a definition of success".

Obviously I'm not about to make a bet before agreeing to the terms.



FWIW, Tesla absolutely does not have the technology, and neither does Uber.

However at the end of 2017 Waymo had cars on public streets with non-employee passengers, and a safety guy sitting in the backseat, with nothing but an "emergency stop-button." That would fit my own less dramatic definition of a success.
I think a guy with an emergency stop button counts as an "emergency human backup driver". I certainly meant no Uber/Waymo employee in the car at all. If you think that's going to happen by the end of 2018 (you said one more year than 2017, right?) then again, I will take the "over".
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