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#51




I'm using ASM and doing GOAL practice problems.

#52




Can anybody who has gone through Intro to Ratemaking and Loss reserving help with something in chapter 3, specifically Example 3.1?
a, How do we get Y=4.7534 + 0.1085X I tried to do it via finding slope and then b (Y=m+bx) but was not getting the same answer. b, Still example 3.1 in calculating loss cost corresponding to Sep. 1 2002 they get X=6.16 but I am not sure how  mostly about .16 part Is the above example 3.1 a type of question one can expect to see on STAM exam? Is anybody else frustrated with this book as much as I am? It is awful. I wish ASM would give an option to purchase the additional "new" material for those who have their older versions of ASM manuals. Any help is greatly appreciated. 
#53




As you are calling this Example 3.1, you are using the 3rd edition of the Intro to Ratemaking text, not the 4th edition, which is the one on the syllabus. There are some topics in Chapter 5 that are added in the 4th edition that aren't in the 3rd edition that might get 12 questions. The other main differences are Chapters 3 and 4 are swapped in the new edition, all of the examples are changed from being in terms of specific dates to being in terms of accident years (e.g., this example replaces 1996 with AY 1, 1997 with AY 2, etc.)
a. They are doing linear regression. I don't think this part of the problem is likely, as linear regression isn't explicitly on the syllabus, but you can do it on your calculator. In data mode, enter the X values (0, 1, 2, 3, 4) in L1, the Y values (4.782, etc.) in L2. Then in stats do 2var stats with xData: L1 and yData: L2, and scroll down to a=0.1085 and b=4.7534. The output is in the form Y = aX + b. b. The 0.16 is because we are projecting from 6/30/1996 to 9/1/2002. That is a difference of 6 years (to get from 1996 to 2002) and 2 months (all of July and all of August). 2 months is 2/12 = 1/6 = 0.16 of the year. The part of the calculation after they do the regression is reasonable to appear on the exam. 
#54




Quote:

#56




A Beta RV with a = b = 1 is a Uniform RV on 0 to theta.
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Jim Daniel Jim Daniel's Actuarial Seminars www.actuarialseminars.com jimdaniel@actuarialseminars.com 
#57




Maybe I'm having a brain fart, shouldn't the numerator for the first term in the derivative have a negative sign? 30e^(1000/theta) Since we are doing the derivative of 1e^(1000/theta) Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 
#58




Yes, but then the derivative of 1000/theta should have a plus sign. They just put the negative sign in an odd place.
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Jim Daniel Jim Daniel's Actuarial Seminars www.actuarialseminars.com jimdaniel@actuarialseminars.com 
#59




I just finished all of the lessons and first pass problems on TIA. How are you guys studying after finishing the lessons? I want to start cranking out practice problems, but I legit don't remember a lot from earlier sections since there is so much material and I started way back in January.
Really want to pass on the first try for once so it would be awesome if anyone can share how they are approaching the exam at this stage in the study process. Thanks! 
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