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  #1701  
Old 03-15-2019, 03:44 PM
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1695814 1695814 is offline
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I don't think this deserves its own thread, so I'm going to post it in here...

From my phone news:
Quote:
Fed to raise interest rates once more in third quarter, then done: Reuters poll
Reuters

The U.S. Federal Reserve will remain patient for a little longer than thought just last month, waiting until the third quarter before raising rates once more, and then stay on the sidelines, a Reuters poll of economists showed. Read the full story
...but if I'm reading the cbot futures correctly, they don't expect any change in the overnight rate for the rest of 2019, and, in fact, the next move is going to be a cut.

So, who's right? The polled-economists or the futures-traders?
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  #1702  
Old 03-15-2019, 07:44 PM
A Student A Student is offline
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Originally Posted by 1695814 View Post

So, who's right? The polled-economists or the futures-traders?
Go with the people who have money on the line...
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  #1703  
Old 03-29-2019, 06:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LifeIsAPoissonProcess View Post
What kind of odds are you giving?
Given that the preliminary report of one of the crashes is out and it blames the MCAS system......50%?
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  #1704  
Old 03-29-2019, 07:48 PM
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...ICareBecauseYouDo ...ICareBecauseYouDo is offline
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Apparently the yield curve uninverted itself.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/...-TVC%3AUS03MY/
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  #1705  
Old 04-04-2019, 01:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A Student View Post
Go with the people who have money on the line...
Good advice.

Here's from today's wsj (https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-ha...-11554397235):

Quote:
Fed’s Harker Sees at Most One Rate Rise in 2019, Another In 2020

Leader of Philadelphia Fed remains in ‘wait-and-see’ mode as he judges economy

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said Thursday he still believes it’s likely the central bank has some rate increases ahead of it.


“I continue to be in wait-and-see mode” with expectations of “at most, one hike for 2019 and one for 2020,” Mr. Harker said in the text of a speech in Philadelphia. Mr. Harker, who doesn’t currently hold a voting role on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, has held to this interest rate view for some time.

...
Again, CBOT futures haven't moved...still showing that the next move will be a decrease. Of course, that can all change quickly blah blah blah.
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  #1706  
Old 04-16-2019, 03:49 PM
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QCOM and AAPL settled finally. closed all positions in it today.

made out well. 69.25 up 25.9 % (15% after tax return)

whats his name that took out the short position in QCOM got his faced ripped off today.

i'm now 95% cash 5% long dated SPX put that is now not nearly OTM as when i bought it.

I'm better this summer will be bumpy and lots of good opportunities will present themselves
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  #1707  
Old 04-16-2019, 04:29 PM
lulzEMH lulzEMH is online now
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Originally Posted by MathGeek92 View Post
QCOM and AAPL settled finally. closed all positions in it today.

made out well. 69.25 up 25.9 % (15% after tax return)

whats his name that took out the short position in QCOM got his faced ripped off today.

i'm now 95% cash 5% long dated SPX put that is now not nearly OTM as when i bought it.

I'm better this summer will be bumpy and lots of good opportunities will present themselves
Congrats on the trade! And that one was publicly stated in advance so double credit.

Oh, was that Kerrisdale? It was much easier when there were about 50 chinese reverse merger frauds he could document with SAIC filings.
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  #1708  
Old 04-18-2019, 08:18 AM
MathGeek92 MathGeek92 is offline
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Originally Posted by lulzEMH View Post
Congrats on the trade! And that one was publicly stated in advance so double credit.

Oh, was that Kerrisdale? It was much easier when there were about 50 chinese reverse merger frauds he could document with SAIC filings.
Thanks. When I was getting crap about it, I posted my active positions.

Yeah. I forgot the dudes name. I just remember some guy came out with a large short call. I've said a hundred times to folks (here and elsewhere) that QCOM chips are BY FAR the best in the industry. INTL just pulled their 5g chip line up because QCOM is BACK. The royalty fee AAPL had to pay to QCOM for their chips was roughly the equivalent of the cost of an AAPL charger. AAPl was going to cave. It was just grand standing and they were trying to be bullies.

I've traded QCOM multiple times in a 18 month period. 10 to 20% returns each time. FV is in the 70 to 80 range. It will trade around for a while, but until APPL phones and ipad demand picks back up, QCOM will trade range bound. Perfect option writing premium time. IMO it comes back to valuation and understand the business of single name companies people invest in. If people aren't willing to or able to that kind of analysis and understanding, then most definitely ETF are the way to go. For those that are willing and able, you can beat broad market returns.

I like that you are betting on Telsa declines. I've hated that company from the beginning and believe it is WAY over valued, but it one of those momentum stocks thats hard for me to get my head around why its valued the way it is. The option strategy is probably the best way to go.

I still think we are topping in the market. Bond market is telling you that. I was early in my call on that and have missed out on about 2% upside, but still way ahead YTD. Wish I would have waited to put my long put on because I would have had a better price point. But the option vol premium has work in my favor. the rise in the market on a straight short is a delta of 1. When you use an ITM PUT the delta is much less than 1 and the as the delta decreases you lose less than a straight short.

Anyway... I lost my wine bet on BA Its taken more than 2 weeks and the software fix while done, there appears to be still a lot of negative sentiment. Oh well. My friend got a nice bottle of cab out of it.
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  #1709  
Old 04-18-2019, 09:00 AM
lulzEMH lulzEMH is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MathGeek92 View Post
Thanks. When I was getting crap about it, I posted my active positions.

Yeah. I forgot the dudes name. I just remember some guy came out with a large short call. I've said a hundred times to folks (here and elsewhere) that QCOM chips are BY FAR the best in the industry. INTL just pulled their 5g chip line up because QCOM is BACK. The royalty fee AAPL had to pay to QCOM for their chips was roughly the equivalent of the cost of an AAPL charger. AAPl was going to cave. It was just grand standing and they were trying to be bullies.


I like that you are betting on Telsa declines. I've hated that company from the beginning and believe it is WAY over valued, but it one of those momentum stocks thats hard for me to get my head around why its valued the way it is. The option strategy is probably the best way to go.

I still think we are topping in the market. Bond market is telling you that. I was early in my call on that and have missed out on about 2% upside, but still way ahead YTD. Wish I would have waited to put my long put on because I would have had a better price point. But the option vol premium has work in my favor. the rise in the market on a straight short is a delta of 1. When you use an ITM PUT the delta is much less than 1 and the as the delta decreases you lose less than a straight short.

Anyway... I lost my wine bet on BA Its taken more than 2 weeks and the software fix while done, there appears to be still a lot of negative sentiment. Oh well. My friend got a nice bottle of cab out of it.
Your comments about intel are interesting. I've only loosely followed it but its amazing how bad their deal with apple went, seems like they lost focus on CPU's in an attempt to provide the 4G, 5G solutions to Apple. 4G was never as good as QCOM and they couldn't even figure out how to do 5g. They are still having a ton of issues with shrinking chip sizes, sounds like falling about 1.5 shrinks behind AMD now. Was impressive when INTC went up on news that they were shutting down the 5g. When i saw reports of INTC's failings at 5g it still didnt' register that your QCOM trade was likely spot on.

I use to like Musk but thought tesla was overpriced.. the more I follow stuff the more I think Musk is a narcistic liar, but boy does hie have a massive cult following that buys all his nonsense.
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  #1710  
Old 04-18-2019, 12:58 PM
msgorman msgorman is offline
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yall too smart for me but BA still seems expensive for the risk.

With that said I did trade DAL recently and made 0-40% profit so.. "I traded QCOM and made 10-20% profits" well there is big difference long term between 10-20 thus the sarcastic 0-40 remark.

anyone follow 13Fs and do any cloning, should be coming out soon
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