Bad news for AI and Data Scientists

[AbedNadir]

Originally Posted by JohnLocke

The fact that needlessly complex solutions to simpler problems can be generated does not imply that there aren't more complex problems in need of more complex models.

i like your way of saying what I said in my post

[MathStatFin]

I don't think that's "AI". Predicting recidivism isn't a core aspect of human intelligence like being able to differentiate between a cat and a dog.

I don't think people understand the subtle differences between AI and just regular mathematical/statistical modeling.

Originally Posted by JMO

Apparently, complex algorithms are not necessarily better than simpler ones. Or even untrained people.
The study is here: https://www.documentcloud.org/docume...Algorithm.html

News articles about it are ubiquitous: https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&...pe=&as_rights=

Based on what I have read, there has been ongoing criticism of a certain proprietary model to predict recidivism, used by judges for setting bail and deciding on sentences. The latest study compared that algorithm with human judgement by means of "mechanical turk" (i.e., online people recruited to do various tasks). The also used a much simpler algorithm involving only age and prior convictions.

When the researchers looked at predictions from two years ago and the results since then, the proprietary algorithm was right about 2/3 of the time. So was the mechanical turk. And so was the far simpler algorithm.

[MathStatFin]

Originally Posted by Woodrow

Maybe it depends on the topic, but for a lot of AI, being "as good a untrained people" would be an amazing success.

Think about AI tasks like "recognize a picture of a cat"

good point.

[whoanonstop]

If the definition of AI for the majority is different from my definition of AI, does that mean I don't know what AI is?

I don't even know what passes as a complex model anymore.

Is it a regression with an interaction term in it?

Or a deep network mutated with some genetic algorithm scheme?

Not even sure I understand what the term "model" means by itself.

Is it a few numbers entered into Excel? Are spreadsheets alone models?

Or does it actually require something more than that?

I just don't know anymore.

-Riley

[nonlnear]

Originally Posted by whoanonstop

If the definition of AI for the majority is different from my definition of AI, does that mean I don't know what AI is?

I don't even know what passes as a complex model anymore.

Is it a regression with an interaction term in it?

Or a deep network mutated with some genetic algorithm scheme?

Not even sure I understand what the term "model" means by itself.

Is it a few numbers entered into Excel? Are spreadsheets alone models?

Or does it actually require something more than that?

I just don't know anymore.

-Riley

A model is complicated when the eyes of the person in control of the project's budget glaze over.

[Colonel Smoothie]

Originally Posted by whoanonstop

If the definition of AI for the majority is different from my definition of AI, does that mean I don't know what AI is?

I don't even know what passes as a complex model anymore.

Is it a regression with an interaction term in it?

Or a deep network mutated with some genetic algorithm scheme?

Not even sure I understand what the term "model" means by itself.

Is it a few numbers entered into Excel? Are spreadsheets alone models?

Or does it actually require something more than that?

I just don't know anymore.

-Riley

one-line-per-sentence-guy on LinkedIn imo

[rhoucag]

Bad news for AI and data scientists? It certainly is if they didn't see it coming!

[DoctorNo]

[Fracktuary]

Originally Posted by DoctorNo

Jaron Lanier wrote an interesting book on this.

He basically states that these models require absurd amounts of basic human input just to not be catastrophically bad.

All the gains from AI accrue to the model and its owner, and those who provide the input get nothing except the satisfaction of training their replacements.

[Colonel Smoothie]

Okay so I've got a question. The last time I tried clicking on random squares just to see if I could proceed, the webpage stopped me and asked me to please click on the correct squares. If these quizzes are being used to tune AI, what are my answers being compared against to determine that I am wrong?