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View Poll Results: Will self driving autos kill car insurance?
Of course 42 16.60%
Maybe but not for a long time 182 71.94%
I'm a luddite... 29 11.46%
Voters: 253. You may not vote on this poll

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  #2071  
Old 07-12-2018, 04:00 PM
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Originally Posted by twig93 View Post
I think a guy with an emergency stop button counts as an "emergency human backup driver". I certainly meant no Uber/Waymo employee in the car at all.
Sure. I wouldn't say you lost the bet-- just that I didn't accept it.

Quote:
If you think that's going to happen by the end of 2018 (you said one more year than 2017, right?) then again, I will take the "over".
It's on!


Some more details:
IMO:
By the end of 2018 there will be cars that have no employees in them at all. They will operate in a couple suburbs on a limited set of roads in places like Arizona. And maybe some highways. They will be barely useful-- eg. some people will sign up for daily commutes.

By the end of 2019 there will be thousands of driver-less taxis. They will operate on more roads, and more cities, but not in every city or on every road in a given city. When paired with a ride-sharing App, they will be actually useful.

By the end of 2021 there will be a driverless car, that you Twig can buy, that will automatically take you to the mall, the park, the beach, to work, and to home. But still might not take you every single place. Either it will have a steering wheel, or some remote operation option for the places it can't go.
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Last edited by Sredni Vashtar; 07-12-2018 at 04:20 PM..
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  #2072  
Old 07-12-2018, 04:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar View Post
Sure. I wouldn't say you lost the bet-- just that I didn't accept it.


It's on!


Some more details:
IMO:
By the end of 2018 there will be cars that have no employees in them at all. They will operate in a couple suburbs on a limited set of roads in places like Arizona. And maybe some highways. They will be barely useful-- eg. some people will sign up for daily commutes.
I did say a medium to large city that most of us have heard of. Something that is limited to a suburb or three of a medium to large city doesn't count IMO.

Quote:
By the end of 2019 there will be thousands of driver-less taxis. They will operate on more roads, and more cities, but not in every city or on every road in a given city. When paired with a ride-sharing App, they will be actually useful.
I'll take/reiterate that I still take the over.

Quote:
By the end of 2021 there will be a driverless car, that you Twig can buy, that will automatically take you to the mall, the park, the beach, to work, and to home. But still might not take you every single place. Either it will have a steering wheel, or some remote operation option for the places it can't go.
I'll take/reiterate that I still take the over.
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  #2073  
Old 07-12-2018, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar View Post
Perhaps I should have said, "if we can agree to a definition of success".
simple definition: level 5 autonomy is achieved
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  #2074  
Old 07-12-2018, 04:41 PM
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I did say a medium to large city that most of us have heard of. Something that is limited to a suburb or three of a medium to large city doesn't count IMO.
Fair enough. I can't say. Even if they have the tech, they may not want to drive around a city this year.
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  #2075  
Old 07-12-2018, 08:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Sredni Vashtar View Post
PFWIW, Tesla absolutely does not have the technology, and neither does Uber.

However at the end of 2017 Waymo had cars on public streets with non-employee passengers, and a safety guy sitting in the backseat, with nothing but an "emergency stop-button." That would fit my own less dramatic definition of a success.
You call that a success? I don't.
And how long until the next news headlines about Waymo accidents, possibly fatal?
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  #2076  
Old 07-16-2018, 01:11 PM
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You call that a success? I don't.
Sure. It implies a high degree of confidence in the technology. Waymo is not Uber/Tesla. They can't afford mistakes.

Quote:
And how long until the next news headlines about Waymo accidents, possibly fatal?
These days, Waymo logs about a million miles a month, so probably someone is crashing into a Waymo car every week.

In the near future, they plan to scale up their operation exponentially. I agree it's going to be hard to keep a perfect record, when you're driving billions and billions of miles.
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His enemies called for peace, but he brought them death.
Sredni Vashtar the Beautiful.

Last edited by Sredni Vashtar; 07-16-2018 at 01:17 PM..
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