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#3221
10-13-2017, 05:11 PM
 DoubleBrat Member CAS Join Date: Apr 2015 Studying for Vegas 2018 Posts: 1,057

Quote:
 Originally Posted by cmoibenlepro Tried 2014 exam. It was a nightmare.
The passing score was in the low 60s on that exam. You might not have done as bad as you thought.
__________________
Prelims: 1, 2, MFE, ST, LC, 4, VEEs

ACAS: 5, 6, OC1, OC2, PC

FCAS: 7, 8, 9
#3222
10-13-2017, 06:23 PM
 cmoibenlepro Member CAS Join Date: May 2007 Location: Montreal Studying for Vegas Posts: 1,792

Got 69%. Who knows if I would pass. They removed some questions.
__________________
SOA: P FM M C FAP1 FA ASA
CAS: OC1 OC2 5 6C ACAS 7 8 9 FCAS
#3223
10-13-2017, 06:24 PM
 cmoibenlepro Member CAS Join Date: May 2007 Location: Montreal Studying for Vegas Posts: 1,792

Regarding single split mods, why does Fisher says that frequency is related to parameter risk and severity to process risk? I don't get the analogy.
__________________
SOA: P FM M C FAP1 FA ASA
CAS: OC1 OC2 5 6C ACAS 7 8 9 FCAS
#3224
10-13-2017, 06:24 PM
 Polak Member CAS Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,516

Doing Bahnemann cookbook problems and I'm confused by something about the first one (page 49). If \$6810 is the average severity of claims greater than 5,000, am I crazy to think I should be able to just subtract \$5000 from 6810 and say the mean excess severity above \$5000 is \$1810? He calculates it out to \$1813, and the Bahnemann math does get that answer even if you don't round anything. It doesn't make any sense to me why I can't just reduce all the excess claims by \$5000. I actually did a similar subtraction thing for all of them, without ever using 1- F(x), and got answers very close to his but not quite the same. It seems like a perfectly legitimate way to go about solving the problem.

Maybe I'm just tired...
#3225
10-13-2017, 07:00 PM
 yerromnitsuj Member CAS Join Date: Jan 2010 Studying for 7 Posts: 382

Quote:
 Originally Posted by cmoibenlepro Regarding single split mods, why does Fisher says that frequency is related to parameter risk and severity to process risk? I don't get the analogy.
Lower layers model frequency, higher layers model severity.

Lower layers have more claims due to small losses being more frequent and they don't have as much variance as large layers. Higher layers often don't have as much data because large losses are infrequent. Parameter risk is more evident when we have sufficient data to build a credible model and process risk is more evident when we don't have much data and loss experience is driven more by what looks like randomness.

You're going to still have parameter risk in excess layers and process risk in lower layers, the main types of risk in primary and excess layers are as you describe.
#3226
10-13-2017, 07:38 PM
 GBM_ Member CAS Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 3,542

my brain is dead. tried to make it through all my notecards today. made it through sections B&C, but didn't get to A at all. Guess I'll do those this weekend after 2016.
#3227
10-13-2017, 07:38 PM
 GBM_ Member CAS Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 3,542

still need to look at case study and IQ
#3228
10-13-2017, 07:38 PM
 GBM_ Member CAS Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 3,542

plus everything else i'm bad at
#3229
10-13-2017, 07:38 PM
 GBM_ Member CAS Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 3,542

rip
#3230
10-13-2017, 07:39 PM
 GBM_ Member CAS Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 3,542

plz be easier than 2014