Actuarial Outpost > CAS Exam 8 Fall 2017 Progress Thread
 Register Blogs Wiki FAQ Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
 FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions

 Salary Surveys Property & Casualty, Life, Health & Pension Health Actuary JobsInsurance & Consulting jobs for Students, Associates & Fellows Actuarial Recruitment Visit DW Simpson's website for more info. www.dwsimpson.com/about Casualty JobsProperty & Casualty jobs for Students, Associates & Fellows

#3241
10-14-2017, 08:57 AM
 cmoibenlepro Member CAS Join Date: May 2007 Location: Montreal Studying for Vegas Posts: 1,792

time to study
__________________
SOA: P FM M C FAP1 FA ASA
CAS: OC1 OC2 5 6C ACAS 7 8 9 FCAS
#3242
10-14-2017, 10:32 AM
 LongestRoad Member CAS Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 464

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bjc2142 got some spare time to start memorizing agg variance, risk load formulas and practice panjer. Not even gonna bother with non-poisson panjers. If first ever panjer problem on this exam is something like negative binomial, I will be so pissed
Was just wondering if I should bother with Panjer at all. Completely forgot it was even something I read about until I saw one of the 2013 questions on it
#3243
10-14-2017, 10:33 AM
 LongestRoad Member CAS Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 464

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Polak Doing Bahnemann cookbook problems and I'm confused by something about the first one (page 49). If $6810 is the average severity of claims greater than 5,000, am I crazy to think I should be able to just subtract$5000 from 6810 and say the mean excess severity above $5000 is$1810? He calculates it out to $1813, and the Bahnemann math does get that answer even if you don't round anything. It doesn't make any sense to me why I can't just reduce all the excess claims by$5000. I actually did a similar subtraction thing for all of them, without ever using 1- F(x), and got answers very close to his but not quite the same. It seems like a perfectly legitimate way to go about solving the problem. Maybe I'm just tired...
I thought the same thing, so I'd be curious as well as to why our method wouldn't be reasonable
#3244
10-14-2017, 11:42 AM
 Tacoactuary Member CAS Non-Actuary Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: Des Moines, IA College: Vanderbilt, UIUC Favorite beer: Yazoo Sue Posts: 1,129

$E[X_a] = \frac{E[X]-E[X;a]}{S_X(a)}= \frac{\int_0^\infty x dF_X(x) - \int_0^a xdF_X(x) - a\cdot S_X(x)}{S_X(a)} = \frac{\int_a^\infty x dF_X(x)}{S_X(a)} - a = \frac{E[X\cdot \mathbf{1_{X>a}}]}{S_X(a)} -a= E[X | X>a ] - a
$
__________________
ACAS 7 8 9

Last edited by Tacoactuary; 10-14-2017 at 11:49 AM..
#3245
10-14-2017, 12:51 PM
 Polak Member CAS Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,515

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Tacoactuary $E[X_a] = \frac{E[X]-E[X;a]}{S_X(a)}= \frac{\int_0^\infty x dF_X(x) - \int_0^a xdF_X(x) - a\cdot S_X(x)}{S_X(a)} = \frac{\int_a^\infty x dF_X(x)}{S_X(a)} - a = \frac{E[X\cdot \mathbf{1_{X>a}}]}{S_X(a)} -a= E[X | X>a ] - a$
I feel like this means I'm right and should be given credit for what I did.
#3246
10-14-2017, 12:53 PM
 Polak Member CAS Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,515

In other news, TIA #3 has proven definitively that I do not actually understand any of the material on this exam. Any oddly phrased questions I will have to partial credit my way through by making assumptions that make them similar to ways I've seen the information presented in the past.
#3247
10-14-2017, 12:56 PM
 Polak Member CAS Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,515

Also the prospect of being given distributions in Bahnemann instead of being told what things like E[X^2;a] equal is horrifying.

Wait, you want me to determine E[x^2;a] via integration? F***. I haven't done that since P. Next problem.
#3248
10-14-2017, 01:03 PM
 Polak Member CAS Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,515

Also the phrase "Expected aggregate losses limited to \$500" is ambiguous. Is that an occurrence limit or an aggregate limit?

Spoiler:
It's an occurrence limit...
#3249
10-14-2017, 02:46 PM
 LongestRoad Member CAS Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 464

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Polak I do not actually understand any of the material on this exam. Any oddly phrased questions I will have to partial credit my way through by making assumptions that make them similar to ways I've seen the information presented in the past.
Yeah, like, I can calculate Table L charges all day- but ask me to tell you *why* it accounts for things differently than ICRLL or Limited Table M? Yeahhh maybe, but probably just a big nope from me
#3250
10-14-2017, 03:05 PM
 LongestRoad Member CAS Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 464

Anyone have a memory trick for knowing the difference between the PAFs from rules 13B and 13C (for ISO Experience rating). I constantly get them mixed up and anytime I try to understand what they're actually doing I feel like I'm just reading the same words for both of them

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:06 PM.

 -- Default Style - Fluid Width ---- Default Style - Fixed Width ---- Old Default Style ---- Easy on the eyes ---- Smooth Darkness ---- Chestnut ---- Apple-ish Style ---- If Apples were blue ---- If Apples were green ---- If Apples were purple ---- Halloween 2007 ---- B&W ---- Halloween ---- AO Christmas Theme ---- Turkey Day Theme ---- AO 2007 beta ---- 4th Of July Contact Us - Actuarial Outpost - Archive - Privacy Statement - Top