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Short-Term Actuarial Math Old Exam C Forum

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  #61  
Old 01-14-2020, 09:04 PM
tcnjmathmajor97 tcnjmathmajor97 is offline
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I got through the SOA problems and thought that those reserving/ratemaking questions were much easier and more straightforward than the higher-level ADAPT problems I’ve been struggling with. I also did the free sample Mahler exam online and thought it was a good resource because it touched on some less common topics. Back to ADAPT tomorrow - I think I’ll just stick to level 5/6 until the exam.
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  #62  
Old 01-19-2020, 12:55 PM
whatdoactuariesevendo whatdoactuariesevendo is offline
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I think that many of the 5/6 level problems are doable. What's disheartening is when I get a level 0-1 question wrong! How is that even happening?!?!
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  #63  
Old 01-19-2020, 04:03 PM
ubhutto ubhutto is offline
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I'm getting a lot of the buhlmann and bayesian questions wrong, any tips. I'm having a hard time understanding the posterior / prior distribution part.
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  #64  
Old 01-19-2020, 09:14 PM
whatdoactuariesevendo whatdoactuariesevendo is offline
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What really helped me is to understand what they are modeling. There's 4 distributions going on.
1. Model is X given parameter.
2. Prior is distribution of that parameter
Then we get some data(experience)
3. Posterior: Now, we can make the distribution for the parameter given the data
4. Predictive: now we can get the distribution of what we're modelling(losses, number of claims, etc.) Given the data
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  #65  
Old 01-20-2020, 01:14 PM
vbbrake84 vbbrake84 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whatdoactuariesevendo View Post
What really helped me is to understand what they are modeling. There's 4 distributions going on.
1. Model is X given parameter.
2. Prior is distribution of that parameter
Then we get some data(experience)
3. Posterior: Now, we can make the distribution for the parameter given the data
4. Predictive: now we can get the distribution of what we're modelling(losses, number of claims, etc.) Given the data
yea, this right here. also i'd add that a discrete prior helps me to organize it better in my mind. may just be personal preference, but doing the tabular method on a discrete prior and seeing how the prior is re-weighted based on the data really helped.
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  #66  
Old 01-21-2020, 12:31 AM
ubhutto ubhutto is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vbbrake84 View Post
yea, this right here. also i'd add that a discrete prior helps me to organize it better in my mind. may just be personal preference, but doing the tabular method on a discrete prior and seeing how the prior is re-weighted based on the data really helped.
yea i can understand discrete prior (bayesian) but have a hard time grasping 2 continuous or a discrete and continuous. But will try that suggestion. Thanks. Any videos / text you found helpful?
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  #67  
Old 01-22-2020, 07:44 PM
tcnjmathmajor97 tcnjmathmajor97 is offline
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I havenít seen any practice problems on Adapt or in the SOA questions regarding the chi-square test for aggregate frequency data. I remember I had a hard time with this when I was going through the material and there was only one sample problem in the CA video.
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  #68  
Old 01-22-2020, 09:59 PM
vbbrake84 vbbrake84 is offline
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if i get one more 24/35 on an adapt exam i'm going to lose my mind... 3 in a row! every single time its the construction and selection of parametric models sections. serenity now.
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  #69  
Old 01-24-2020, 02:46 AM
whatdoactuariesevendo whatdoactuariesevendo is offline
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Finally got to a level 5. Not sure what I want to do for the next two weeks before exam. Certainly at least another 2 practice tests, but how much time for reviewing and how much for more practice??? I know a level 5 is not "I'm surely going to pass" but I think it at least gives me a shot at it.
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  #70  
Old 01-24-2020, 02:49 AM
whatdoactuariesevendo whatdoactuariesevendo is offline
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I've also pretty much memorized all the formula sheet formulas and will go back to read the qualitative parts about insurance coverages. I'm still not feeling strong at all on the Ratemaking section either.
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