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 Probability Old Exam P Forum

#11
05-18-2009, 06:36 AM
 sophie Member Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 87

Quote:
 Originally Posted by daaaave 3. (Based on #10 from 1999 practice exam for the old syllabus, modified to avoid an ambiguity in the problem.) An insurance policy covers the two employees of ABC Company. The policy will reimburse ABC for no more than one loss per employee in a year. It reimburses the full amount of the loss up to an annual company-wide maximum of 8000. The probability of an employee incurring a loss in a year is 40%. The probability that an employee incurs a loss is independent of the other employee’s losses. The amount of each loss is uniformly distributed on [1000, 5000]. Given that at least one of the employees has incurred a loss in excess of 2000, determine the probability that losses will exceed reimbursements. Answer: Spoiler: 2/51 Video Solutions are available at The Infinite Actuary We've changed the URL from previous weeks and also added QuickTime versions of the videos.

hi dave! i saw exactly the same question in my Actex 2005 Edition Study Manual, but you have different answers. at first i was confused, because i remembered seeing exacty the same question in your video solutions, and i solved the problem using the same approach as yours, but i did not find the answer in any of the options.

the text says that the final answer is 1/15. i attached the solution to this post.

thanks!!!
Attached Files
 actex question.doc (23.0 KB, 966 views)
#12
05-19-2009, 02:54 AM
 daaaave David Revelle Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 3,012

The reason why I say "based on" is that the original question had a subtly different phrasing that I felt could be interpreted in two different ways. I changed the phrasing to remove the ambiguity and be consistent with one interpretation. I suspect that the Actex manual uses the old language and the other interpretation but don't have a copy to check.
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#13
06-15-2009, 02:36 PM
 daaaave David Revelle Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 3,012

We have recently decided to make our current sample exams for 1/P available for free. Anyone can access the first one at http://www.theinfiniteactuary.com/?page=exams&id=50 For the other 3 exams, you need to register (still for free) with a valid e-mail address. For information about how to register for the other 3, see http://www.theinfiniteactuary.com/?page=joint_1p
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#14
07-21-2009, 11:15 AM
 daaaave David Revelle Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 3,012

To expand a bit on the practice exams, we currently have 4 free practice exams (as described above) and the online seminar contains 3 more, for a total of 7, as well as over 200 other practice problems that come with video solutions. A number of former students have said that they found the video solutions to be the best part of the seminar as ultimately the exam is about solving problems, and part of why we are currently giving away the first few practice exams is to give you a better sample of the solutions.
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#15
07-21-2009, 11:24 AM
 daaaave David Revelle Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 3,012

I keep on wanting to link to a single thread with a number of reviews of my seminar, but since 1/P is given every 2 months it seems to be more common to have a number of short threads. One of the longer threads that I can find is http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actu...d.php?t=156532 and there is also a discussion of various study manuals and seminars in http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actu...d.php?t=152951

Finally, here is a short thread about the first 4 practice exams http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actu...d.php?t=143828 and a couple of quick threads from people who passed http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actu...d.php?t=143814 http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actu...d.php?t=143740
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#16
08-11-2009, 01:04 AM
 vealodev1 Join Date: Jul 2009 College: University of the Philippines Posts: 1
How to register?

I can't find the link to register to Infinite actuary...

Quote:
 Originally Posted by daaaave We have recently decided to make our current sample exams for 1/P available for free. Anyone can access the first one at http://www.theinfiniteactuary.com/?page=exams&id=50 For the other 3 exams, you need to register (still for free) with a valid e-mail address. For information about how to register for the other 3, see http://www.theinfiniteactuary.com/?page=joint_1p
#17
08-11-2009, 08:01 AM
 campbell Mary Pat Campbell SOA AAA Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: NY Studying for duolingo and coursera Favorite beer: Murphy's Irish Stout Posts: 86,078 Blog Entries: 6

To register for the free 1/P exams, go here:
http://www.theinfiniteactuary.com/?page=joint_1p

Go to the area marked "Sample Exams......FREE" and there's an "Add to Cart" button.

Follow the directions on the next page to complete registration. It will take a couple days for your account to be processed.
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It's STUMP

#18
03-25-2010, 02:47 AM
 shoaib Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 10

i can't open sample exams # 2,3 and 4 because don't show the icon plz help me
#19
03-25-2010, 09:22 AM
 daaaave David Revelle Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 3,012

Quote:
 Originally Posted by shoaib i can't open sample exams # 2,3 and 4 because don't show the icon plz help me
You need to be logged in to view sample exams 2-4. If you haven't yet created an account, or added the exams to it, the first thing that you need to do is to add sample exams 2-4 to your shopping cart by clicking the link near the bottom of http://www.theinfiniteactuary.com/?page=joint_1p Once you are registered for the sample exams, you can view 2-4 by logging in and then the icons will become available.
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#20
07-31-2010, 08:11 PM
 actscience Member Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 70

i have a question on 1st exam #22

I do understand how you converted 2 ( summation of all i>j of cov (i, j) ) by (summation of i not equal to j ) and getting rid of 2....

my question is then while writing the formula for var (S) why did u multiply by 2 to covarience in the end.?

you have Var S = 100 * 100 + (-1) (100 C 2) * 2 .. (i dont understand the last 2) what is that for??

THanks..!!

 Tags the infinite actuary, tia