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ShortTerm Actuarial Math Old Exam C Forum 

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#1




SOA #304
Looking at this question  are the random numbers generated for discrete random variable J given in part a) just extraneous information?

#3




This was the most convoluted question I could've imagined. Really? 2/3rds of a page when you could've just said "Determine the mean of 3 stochastic RVs"?
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#4




Quote:
You do have to describe the distribution of the random variables, and then describe how the sample values are simulated from that distribution. Admittedly the following question would be much simpler and would also test the sample mean, but the actual question has much more content, not just lots more words. Quote:

#5




In this problem we're using random numbers to select one of four distributions with means of 1.0, .75, .5 or .25, then we using other random numbers to generate a random value from the chosen distribution? At least that's what it looks like to me.
What kind of real world losses would a simulation like this one be used for? 
#6




I donīt know how much of the material you have covered. By far the most common type of multistep simulation, I suspect, would be first simulate the number of claims, then simulate the magnitude of the claims (possibly simulating the magnitude of the claims individually).
Another possibility, which may or may not ever be used, would be for a health insurer to first simulate whether it would be a mild flu season, a bad flu season, or an epidemic, and then simulate its claims cost conditional on the type of season. 
#7




Ah, interesting. Thanks for that explanation Gandalf.

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