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Old 06-12-2018, 11:34 PM
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Default Retention model performance

For those who have designed a binary retention model before, what kind of AUC (or any other measurement) should be considered respectable? I'm sure there will be plenty of variation by company and line of business, but any general targets would be helpful in determining if I'm heading in the right direction. Thanks
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Old 06-12-2018, 11:53 PM
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What's the AUC of your current model?
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Old 06-13-2018, 12:05 AM
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What's the AUC of your current model?
Currently ~0.74
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Old 06-13-2018, 12:12 AM
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Currently ~0.74
A respectable AUC of a new model is > 0.74.
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Old 06-13-2018, 02:27 AM
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A respectable AUC of a new model is > 0.74.
well done
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Old 06-13-2018, 11:00 AM
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One might also argue that an AUC in the neighborhood of the current model could also be "reasonable" (or respectable) since there might be other benefits of the new model (e.g., greater interpretability) that is not captured by AUC.

Put another way, don't put all of your proverbial eggs in one basket.
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Old 06-13-2018, 12:33 PM
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One might also argue that an AUC in the neighborhood of the current model could also be "reasonable" (or respectable) since there might be other benefits of the new model (e.g., greater interpretability) that is not captured by AUC.

Put another way, don't put all of your proverbial eggs in one basket.
Well the previous model had AUC ~ 0.71, so at least it is an improvement in that regard.
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Old 06-13-2018, 02:48 PM
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Well the previous model had AUC ~ 0.71, so at least it is an improvement in that regard.
A significant improvement, though?

Improvement in one measure isn't enough to say that one model is "better" (overall) than another. It can be evidence to support such a claim, but isn't enough by itself.

That would be like saying that the taller person is a better basketball player.
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Old 06-22-2018, 01:36 AM
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Can you guys give any insight why the retention models of most personal auto insurers seem to think I as a consumer would renew at a +15-25% rate increase every renewal? It's like every single time. I shop every time. I manage to get a more reasonable rate increase with the new carrier, and then a term or two later, I'm back with the original carrier at a similar rate that I had with them originally.
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Old 06-22-2018, 02:07 AM
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Has this only been happening recently? You might be catching carriers between rate filings as the whole industry has been chasing its tail for the past few years.
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