CA to split?

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Originally Posted by twig93

From a practical standpoint I could not disagree more.

I mean to determine the GOP/DEM-ness of each proposed state. Not to actually propose splitting CA into three that way.
Just saying that the county votes might not line up.
And especially not to use Trump = GOP from that last Presidential election. I mean, this is about giving the GOP more power in the Senate.

[JMO]

Originally Posted by twig93

I'm sorry to be so blunt, but your husband is wrong. (To be fair, I had the same initial impression as he did, but the facts simply do not support it.) NoCal was only *very* slightly less Democratic than NewCal. The entire Bay area plus Sacramento are pretty heavily Democratic.

Yes, North or East of that it's all Republican, but no one lives there.

If I remove San Francisco County from NoCal and leave the rest, it barely moves the needle because the surrounding counties and Sacramento are so heavily Democratic too.

Well, if he's wrong, does that mean a Republican-heavy congress won't support the split? I'd be happy enough with that.

[Vorian Atreides]

Originally Posted by twig93

All academic because it's never going to happen, of course.

And a guy like Trump will never be elected President.

[twig93]

Originally Posted by Dr T Non-Fan

I mean to determine the GOP/DEM-ness of each proposed state. Not to actually propose splitting CA into three that way.
Just saying that the county votes might not line up.
And especially not to use Trump = GOP from that last Presidential election. I mean, this is about giving the GOP more power in the Senate.

Gotcha.

I agree that the 2016 POTUS election is not exactly representative, which is why I also looked at the 2012 POTUS election. I would have preferred to use Senate election results, but with California's "open primary" system, the last Senate race was between 2 Democrats only.

And using the results of the Senate primary seemed more problematic than the 2012 POTUS election.

I just realized that in 2014 the Governor's race was between a Republican and a Democrat. Jerry Brown (D) won pretty handily, but I do have a county-by-county vote total for that race. Stay tuned...

[twig93]

Originally Posted by JMO

Well, if he's wrong, does that mean a Republican-heavy congress won't support the split? I'd be happy enough with that.

Correct; I don't believe that the Republicans in congress will consider it.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

Originally Posted by Vorian Atreides

And a guy like Trump will never be elected President.

And the Congress won't ever turn Democratic in both chambers.

I mean, if the proposition passes (and here's the real, and really high, hurdle that will be encountered), AND one day the Dems take over House and Senate, why wouldn't they consider it? There is probably no time limit in the Proposition, though I haven't read it.

[twig93]

Originally Posted by Dr T Non-Fan

And the Congress won't ever turn Democratic in both chambers.

I mean, if the proposition passes (and here's the real, and really high, hurdle that will be encountered), AND one day the Dems take over House and Senate, why wouldn't they consider it? There is probably no time limit in the Proposition, though I haven't read it.

Oh Congress will certainly be controlled by the Dems at some point in the future... only a matter of time.

I doubt they'd change the rules to allow a simple majority for admission of new states, as that would potentially open the floodgates. What's to stop the Dakotas from breaking into 10 states when the Republicans are back in charge? Or any other state... I'm hoping that congress critters aren't *THAT* dumb.

I hope that my hope is not misplaced. It was in November 2016, that's for sure.

[twig93]

OK, so in looking for the 2014 gubernatorial numbers I discovered that Politico's vote totals are wrong. Like really wrong. That was my source for the 2012 & 2016 POTUS outcomes.

They are *way* lower than the numbers in Dave Leip's Election Atlas. I'm assuming that this must be because they stopped updating their numbers at some point as precincts continued to count absentee ballots and provisional ballots and whatnot and that Leip's numbers are the accurate ones.

So updated and new results (% of Dem-GOP vote won by Dems) based on Dave Leip's numbers:

2012 POTUS election
NewCal: 68.7% (was 67.3%)
NoCal: 66.5% (was 66.1%)
SoCal: 50.3% (was 49.0%)

2014 Gubernatorial election
NewCal: 64.5%
NoCal: 67.4%
SoCal: 46.9%

2016 POTUS election
NewCal: 73.5% (was 72.4%)
NoCal: 69.9% (was 70.0%)
SoCal: 55.2% (was 54.2%)

Still sticking with my story that SoCal is a swing state, not a red state. And NoCal and NewCal are obviously both very very blue.

[Dr T Non-Fan]

"PoCal," please.

[tometom]

No offense guys, but I put this thread in P&C because it would have P&C issues. if you want to get into the political side of it, why not start a thread over in political?