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Old 06-29-2018, 01:18 AM
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Default Question about recent SOA Guaranteed Issue Mortality Study

Is anyone familiar with the recent 2017 Guaranteed Issue Mortality Study?

The thing I'm confused about is this:

"The mortality ratio based on the 2008 Valuation Basic Table for Limited Underwriting (“VBTLU”) Ultimate Table was 172.7% based on units and 166.4% by count, and the average size was 7.252 units."

Despite it saying this, if I take the Present Value of the qx rates in the "unloaded" mortality tables in Appendices A and B, the qx rates are clearly nowhere near ~170% of the 2008 VBTLU qx rates (they are more like 130% I think). From reading section 2, it would seem that this table is mostly based on the study they did, but looking at these rates I don't think that's the case. Can anyone think of what adjustments might have caused the rates to be lower than what the study results would indicate? And why would they have adjusted them down so much?

I will admit, I don't fully understand everything they're saying in sections 2.3 and 2.4, which talk about adjustments, but it doesn't seem like these adjustments should result in such a large decrease in the rates. If anyone knows what's going on here and can put it in simpler terms I would really appreciate it.
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Old 07-01-2018, 04:45 PM
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Carol Marler
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It's not clear to me why you are taking Present Values. Shouldn't you look at the ratio of qx from the original and new table for a given age?
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