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#251
01-21-2018, 10:27 PM
 Beardown9755 CAS SOA Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 29

3 weeks from E-day!

I've been working through exams from TIA, ADAPT, ASM, and Mahler. I agree with the sentiment from most on the board: Mahler's exams tend to be the most difficult and test the concepts from the syllabus in deeper, more intricate ways than the other sources.

I think the TIA exams thus far (I've done two of them) also do a great job of asking tough questions that require a deeper understanding of the concepts.

ADAPT exams seem great for learning the core of the syllabus, but I feel like they never touch on the rarer topics; they all seem to be very similar in content, while the other sources' exams will have a slightly different feel each time due to diversification of topics.

I'll add my Mahler scores for reference as well:
1) 14/20
2) 12/20
3) 12/20
4) 13/20
11) 29/35
#252
01-21-2018, 10:36 PM
 Beardown9755 CAS SOA Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 29

Quote:
 Originally Posted by llkho Thank you @dkamka! Now I understood how the variance is 0.75. Although I don't get why we compute the mean by computing 1.5/3.
I work through kernel problems by viewing them as mixtures and proceeding to use properties of mixtures to find CDF, S(x), 1st and 2nd moments, etc., so I don't fully understand the method the SOA used, but it seems to me that they interpret the "kernel" in the solution as a uniform random variable relative to the original data point, that is, the kernel is Uniform(-1, 2), which has a mean of (2+(-1))/2=0.5 and a variance of 3^2/12=0.75.
#253
Yesterday, 10:45 AM
 dkamka Member SOA Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: Austin, Texas Studying for C College: Roosevelt University Alumnus '10 Favorite beer: Jawa Juice Posts: 387
Mahler#10

BRUTAL

11/20 mucho malo. That was tough as it gets so far. I think #10 is the hardest from Mahler I've seen yet.

This is good because learning from these is key to getting better.

Starting full length Mahler tonight. Looking forward to it because there may be a better chance of passing with more questions. Each exam title page says that "each question is similar to a question in the study guide". This is why I regret using ASM/TIA. If I used Mahler all along I'd be golden by now. These would be cake because they're all the same and they'd be like repeat questions. maybe not cake, but not as bad. I'm feeling Mahler puts me at game day level 100% of the time where other resources are not always there.
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Last edited by dkamka; Yesterday at 03:21 PM..
#254
Yesterday, 03:31 PM
 dkamka Member SOA Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: Austin, Texas Studying for C College: Roosevelt University Alumnus '10 Favorite beer: Jawa Juice Posts: 387

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Beardown9755 I work through kernel problems by viewing them as mixtures and proceeding to use properties of mixtures to find CDF, S(x), 1st and 2nd moments, etc., so I don't fully understand the method the SOA used, but it seems to me that they interpret the "kernel" in the solution as a uniform random variable relative to the original data point, that is, the kernel is Uniform(-1, 2), which has a mean of (2+(-1))/2=0.5 and a variance of 3^2/12=0.75.
From my last Mahler exam (#10), I got almost an identical question. This is how I understand it for uniform:

Just calculate the mean from the constraints:
E[X]=E[(y-1+y+2)/2]=E[(2y+1)/2]=Ey+1/2. --add the boundaries of y-1 & y+2 and divide by 2 as uniforms do --> (a+b)/2. When you have the Ey, that means use the empirical value from the data, so 5 and add the 1/2. This is why it says it's mean is NOT the same as the empirical estimate. The variance for each data point is uniform distribution with bandwidth of 3. So the way we calculate variance is empirical plus the uniform or (3)^2/12 + 6 where 6 you get from calculating it on the calculator and finding sigma squared. Does that make more sense?
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PM me if you’re in the Austin area
Exams: P | FM | MLC |MFE | C
VEE: Finance | Economics | Applied Statistics | Accounting

Predictive Analytics
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APC

Last edited by dkamka; Yesterday at 03:33 PM.. Reason: typo correction
#255
Yesterday, 04:17 PM
 Beardown9755 CAS SOA Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 29

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dkamka Just calculate the mean from the constraints: E[X]=E[(y-1+y+2)/2]=E[(2y+1)/2]=Ey+1/2. --add the boundaries of y-1 & y+2 and divide by 2 as uniforms do --> (a+b)/2. When you have the Ey, that means use the empirical value from the data, so 5 and add the 1/2. This is why it says it's mean is NOT the same as the empirical estimate. The variance for each data point is uniform distribution with bandwidth of 3. So the way we calculate variance is empirical plus the uniform or (3)^2/12 + 6 where 6 you get from calculating it on the calculator and finding sigma squared. Does that make more sense?
Yeah, that makes sense.

Also, the first full-length Mahler exam was a little easier than the shorter ones IMO, although it was still a tough exam.
#256
Yesterday, 04:40 PM
 Adapt and Chill SOA AAA Join Date: Sep 2017 College: Davidson College Posts: 8

Quote:
 Originally Posted by dkamka Starting full length Mahler tonight. Looking forward to it because there may be a better chance of passing with more questions. Each exam title page says that "each question is similar to a question in the study guide". This is why I regret using ASM/TIA. If I used Mahler all along I'd be golden by now. These would be cake because they're all the same and they'd be like repeat questions. maybe not cake, but not as bad. I'm feeling Mahler puts me at game day level 100% of the time where other resources are not always there.
Isn't that the point of the Mahler exams though? You're seeing a lot of questions for the first time that you don't immediately know how to do. It gives you more exposure to a variety of problem types under test-taking scenarios.

Is this your 2nd sitting? I'm using ASM and a co-worker is using TIA, and am curious about the difference between the two.
#257
Yesterday, 05:41 PM
 ngiletto CAS SOA Join Date: Oct 2017 College: Alumni - George Washington University Posts: 29

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Adapt and Chill Isn't that the point of the Mahler exams though? You're seeing a lot of questions for the first time that you don't immediately know how to do. It gives you more exposure to a variety of problem types under test-taking scenarios. Is this your 2nd sitting? I'm using ASM and a co-worker is using TIA, and am curious about the difference between the two.
This is not my first sitting, and I did not feel TIA prepared me for the twists and turns on the exams, but prepared me for the base concepts. I suggest Mahler, as I am trying it myself this sitting. So far, it does seem to have more questions that throw me for the loops the exam threw me for.
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