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  #241  
Old 06-20-2017, 11:22 AM
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Mary Pat Campbell
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[boop] fixed
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  #242  
Old 07-09-2017, 09:45 AM
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http://retractionwatch.com/2017/06/2...it-draws-fire/

I don't remember whether the original study about a maximum/limiting age for human lifespan was mentioned in this thread, but this article pokes some holes in it. Anyway the debate goes on.
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  #243  
Old 08-06-2017, 09:48 PM
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Fascinating paper on how Saddam Hussein manipulated reported child mortality rates in the 1990s:

http://gh.bmj.com/content/2/2/e000311
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  #244  
Old 09-19-2017, 08:21 AM
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UNITED KINGDOM

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeands...ars-in-britain
Quote:
How death has changed over 100 years in Britain
Childhood was once perilous and adult lives were often cut short – but life expectancy now tops 80 years
Nice little animation from 1915 - 2015, which shows not only mortality rates but some interesting population effects in numbers. The 1975 curve has too lumps at older ages, dips surrounding 80.

I think that dip in the age-80s represents all the men who died during WWI (and everybody who died from Spanish flu) and weren't around in 1975 to die. Not just brits, but also people who moved to the UK post-WWII.
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  #245  
Old 09-22-2017, 06:18 PM
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https://www.vox.com/science-and-heal...ife-expectancy

Quote:
America’s opioid epidemic is so bad it’s causing average life expectancy to drop
A new study looks at the numbers — and they’re fairly grim.

The typical American was expected to die a little earlier in 2015 than 2014 — and a dramatic rise in drug overdose deaths is largely to blame, according to a new study in JAMA.

The study examined changes in life expectancy between 2000 and 2015. It found that, overall, life expectancy at birth increased by about two years in that time span.

But drug overdose deaths made that number significantly lower than it would have been otherwise — by more than three months. And opioid overdoses in particular shaved about two and a half months from life expectancy at birth.

In total, the researchers said decreased death rates related to heart disease, cancer, cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes, influenza and pneumonia, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and kidney disease contributed to a gain of about two years and three months in life expectancy from 2000 to 2015. But increases in drug overdoses, suicide, chronic liver disease and cirrhosis, and alcohol poisonings pushed down the overall gains.


Quote:
The numbers show the deep impact of America’s ongoing opioid epidemic, which is the deadliest drug overdose crisis in history. We already knew, based on federal data, that US life expectancy saw its first major drop since 1993 in 2015 — from about 78.9 years in 2014 to 78.8 in 2015. Now we know that drug overdoses, especially opioid overdoses, played a big part in that drop.

This is likely to get worse. Preliminary data suggests that drug overdoses climbed even further in 2016, from more than 52,000 in 2015 to about 64,000 in 2016. And a forecast by STAT estimated that as many as 650,000 people — more than the entire population of Baltimore — could die from opioid overdoses alone in the next decade. Based on this new study, that could push US life expectancy down even further.
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  #246  
Old 09-22-2017, 06:34 PM
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https://twitter.com/ZachWahls/status/910882544345853953

Spoiler:



from this paper:
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content...xtsp17bpea.pdf

Might help to indicate how many people have less than BA by birth cohort.

has some stats:
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/C...-WP2016-04.pdf
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  #247  
Old 09-25-2017, 06:23 PM
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HOMICIDES

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ear/699161001/

Quote:
FBI: Violent crime increases for second straight year

WASHINGTON – Violent crime in the U.S. ticked up in 2016 for the second consecutive year, according to the FBI. It's the first time a two-year increase was recorded in more than a decade.

The FBI's annual report on violent crime statistics released Monday tracked a growing priority of the Trump administration, which has offered ominous warnings since Inauguration Day of a growing crime problem in America and a re-emergence of violent criminal gangs.
.....
Overall violent crime was up 4.1% last year, while murder increased by 8.6%, according to new FBI statistics. Last year, the FBI reported violent crime rose by 3.9% in 2015, while murder jumped by 10.8%.

The surges appeared to be driven by increases in murders in Chicago, Baltimore and some other large cities where violence persisted even as neighboring communities reported declines.

An analysis by the the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law found that overall crime in the U.S. had dropped due to sustained declines in property-related offenses. Burglary, vehicle theft and larceny has declined for 14 straight years. But murder increases were driven by violence in many of the country's 30-largest cities.

"Chicago accounted for more than 20% of the nationwide murder increase in 2016, despite being home to less than 1% of the U.S. population," the center concluded.


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  #248  
Old 12-07-2017, 02:27 PM
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UNITED KINGDOM

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...ance-says-ons/

Quote:
Life expectancy has dropped because of antibiotic resistance, says ONS


Spoiler:

Antibiotic resistance has caused a fall in life expectancy for the first time, the Office for National Statistics has said.

Life expectancy in future years has been revised down after the statistics authority said that "less optimistic views" about the future had to be taken into account.

Opinions on "improvements in medical science" had declined, it said, and fears of the "re-emergence of existing diseases and increases in anti-microbial resistance" meant people would not live as long as was previously expected.


The ONS uses predictions about how medicine and science will improve to model how life expectancy will change.

Under the projection made in 2010, a baby girl born in 2016 could expect to live 83.7 years. This has now been revised down to 82.9.

Life expectancy for babies born in 2060, the latest year which appears in both models, is now two years shorter than it was in the 2010 data.

Baby girls born in that year were previously expected to live to 90.1 - this has now fallen to 88.3.

Baby boys are also set to live less long, with children born in 2016 expected to live to 79.2, instead of 79.9, and those born in 2060 expected to live to 85.7 instead of 86.8.

The expectancies have been revised down before but this is the first time the ONS has said it believes resistance plays a part.

Experts have repeatedly warned of the dangers of antibiotic resistance, which could cause hundreds of diseases which are currently easily curable to become killers.

Anti-microbial resistance also includes the issue of viruses and funguses becoming resistance to antiviral and antifungal medication.

An increasing number of people with HIV have a version of the condition which is resistant to antiretroviral medication.

The NHS has previously warned that too many people are taking antibiotics for inappropriate conditions such as viruses, leading to greater resistance.

The World Health Organisation has said that the phenomenon is "one of the biggest threats to global health".

Earlier this month it told farmers and the food industry to stop giving the medicines to healthy animals.

It is also asking farmers to avoid using the varieties which are seen as the "last line of defence" because they are among the few medicines which treat certain diseases in humans.

According to a paper published earlier this month by the European Consumer Organisation, antibiotic resistance is set to become a bigger killer than cancer by 2050, and routine infections could become deadly in as little as 20 years.

This "cohort" life expectancy measure is seen as the best measure of life expectancy as it takes into account expected future medical advances and changes in society.

The ONS said it had also reduced "period" life expectancy - which assumes that the current conditions remain the same - because more people than expected died in the past two years.

Sophie Sanders, of its population statistics division, said: “Improvements in life expectancy in the 2016-based projections are slightly lower than those projected in the 2014-based projections.

"This has been driven by higher mortality rates in 2015 and 2016 than were projected in the 2014-based projections and lower rates of mortality improvement at older ages over the first 25 years of the projections.”


They've got a nice life expectancy interactive on the page, from here:
https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy/
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  #249  
Old 12-13-2017, 12:27 PM
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UNITED STATES

http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2017/12/...paign=12122017

Quote:
U.S. Premature Death Impact Climbs for Third Straight Year
UnitedHealth crunches government health data
Spoiler:
Analysts at a UnitedHealth Group Inc. foundation have found evidence that U.S. health is moving in the wrong direction: the U.S. premature death rate has risen for the third year in a row.

The premature death measure reflects the number years of potential life lost, before age 75, per 100,000 U.S. residents.

That measure increased to 7,214 per 100,000 U.S. residents in the foundation's 2017 annual U.S. health rankings report.

The 2017 premature death rate measure has increased from 7,054 in 2016, and from 6,997 in 2015.

The latest figure is the highest the UnitedHealth foundation analysts have recorded since 2012.

The analysts used data from government surveys and other sources to create the report.

The "2017 figures" for the public health measures reflect the latest available survey results. In many cases, the latest numbers are several years old. The premature death rate numbers, for example, come from U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data from 2015.

UnitedHealth foundation analysts speculated in 2015 and 2016, when the U.S. death premature rate also rose, that the increase might be mostly due to the opioid epidemic.

The overall U.S. drug death rate has been climbing rapidly most years since at least 2007.

The "drug death rate" reflects the age-adjusted number of deaths due to drug-related injury per 100,000 U.S. residents. The rate has increased to 11.9 in the 2017 foundation report, from 9.7 in 2007.

But the UnitedHealth foundation analysts found that two other major mortality measures also rose.

One of the measures is the cardiovascular death rate. That's the age-adjusted number of deaths due to all cardiovascular diseases, including heart disease and stroke, per 100,000 people.

That measure jumped to 254.6 per 100,000 people in 2017, from 251.7 in 2016.

Another measure that spiked is an occupational fatality measure. That's the number of fatal occupational injuries in construction, manufacturing, trade, transportation, utilities, and professional and business services.

That measure climbed to 4.3 per 100,000 people in 2017, from 3.7 in 2016.

The number of infant deaths before age 1 year held steady at 5.9 deaths per 1,000 live births.

The age-adjusted number of cancer deaths per 100,000 people continued to hover around 190 per 100,000 people.
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  #250  
Old 12-21-2017, 03:24 PM
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UNITED STATES

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1EF1TF

Quote:
U.S. life expectancy fell in 2016 as opioid overdoses surged: CDC
Spoiler:
NEW YORK/CHICAGO (Reuters) - Life expectancy among Americans has fallen for the second year in a row as the opioid crisis continues to drive up overall death rates in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Thursday.

A total of 63,000 people died from drug overdoses in 2016, up 21 percent from 2015, according to the CDC report. Opioid-related overdoses surged 28 percent, killing 42,249 people, mostly in the 25-to-54 age group.

“The escalating growth of opioid deaths is downright frightening – and it’s getting worse,” John Auerbach, chief executive officer of the public health advocacy group Trust for America’s Health, said in a statement.

The increase largely stemmed from the continued escalation of deaths from fentanyl and other synthetic opioids, which jumped to 19,410 in 2016 from 9,580 in 2015 and 5,540 in 2014, according to a TFAH analysis of the report.

Heroin, an illegal opioid, accounted for around 15,500 deaths, and prescription painkillers were involved in about 14,500, TFAH reported.

“These are not simply numbers – these are actual lives,” said Benjamin F. Miller, chief policy officer of Well Being Trust, a non-profit foundation focused on mental health issues. “Seeing the loss of life at this dramatic rate calls for more immediate action.”

President Donald Trump in October declared the opioid crisis a public health emergency, which senior administration officials said would redirect federal resources and loosen regulations to combat abuse of the drugs. However, he stopped short of declaring a national emergency, a move he had promised months before and which would have freed up more federal money.

The surge in overdose deaths has depressed recent gains in U.S. life expectancy, which fell to an average age of 78.6, down 0.1 year from 2015 and marking the first two-year drop since 1962-1963.

Overdose rates rose in 40 states and in Washington, D.C., between 2015 and 2016, with 17 states seeing increases of 25 percent or more, according to the TFAH analysis.

“Every community has been impacted by this crisis,” Auerbach said, adding that the government was not making the investments needed to “turn the tide.”

As the opioid epidemic has worsened, many state attorneys general have sued makers of these drugs as they investigate whether manufacturers and distributors engaged in unlawful marketing behavior.

Reporting by Caroline Humer in New York and Julie Steenhuysen in Chicago; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn and Jonathan Oatis


https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/am...rdoses-n831676

Quote:
U.S. life expectancy falls for second straight year — as drug overdoses soar
Spoiler:
Life expectancy in the United States fell for the second year in a row in 2016 — and it’s clear the epidemic of drug overdoses is at least in part to blame, government researchers said Thursday.

Overall life expectancy for a baby born in 2016 fell to 78.6 years, a small decline of 0.1 percent, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) team found. At the same time, mortality from drug overdoses rose by 21 percent.

U.S. life expectancy and drug overdose deaths chart
“This was the first time life expectancy in the U.S. has declined two years in a row since declines in 1962 and 1963,” the NCHS, part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in a statement.

Related: You might be surprised at what kills us

“The new report shows the decline in life expectancy occurred despite an overall decline in U.S. mortality,” the statement added.

Life expectancy is affected by mortality rates, but life expectancy calculations are forward-looking projections, while mortality rates are based on current factors.

The number of people who died — not the rate — went up in 2016, however. More than 2.7 million people died in the U.S. in 2016, with a total of 31,618 more deaths than in 2015.

Drug overdoses accounted for a large proportion of these. The NCHS found that 63,600 people died of drug overdoses in 2016. “The majority of these overdose deaths were unintentional,” the NCHS team, led by Dr. Holly Hedegaard, wrote.

The death rate from drug overdoses rose 18 percent a year from 2014 to 2016, the team reported. In 1999, 6.1 per 100,000 people died from drug overdoses. That rate rose to 19.8 per 100,000 in 2016.

Related: U.S. death rate rises

There’s been a big increase in deaths from synthetic opioids, including fentanyl and tramadol. There’s been a somewhat smaller increase in heroin deaths, the team found.

Overdose deaths count as injuries, and unintentional injuries became the third leading cause of death in 2016, after heart disease and cancer. “Chronic lower respiratory diseases, the third leading cause in 2015, became the fourth leading cause in 2016,” the NCHS said.

Men were far more likely to die from drug overdoses than women were, but other reports have found a growing number of opiate overdoses among women.

Still, as in other countries, American men die younger than women.

Male life expectancy fell from 76.3 years in 2015 to 76.1 in 2016, while female life expectancy stayed steady at 81.1, the NCHS said.

Related: Who lives longest? Coloradans win

If you make it to age 65, you’ll likely live longer than 78 years. People who were 65 years old in 2016 can expect to live another 19 years, the NCHS team projected. It breaks down to almost 21 years more for women and 18 years more for men.

U.S. life expectancy does not stack up well compared to other rich countries. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development keeps an index of life expectancy and the U.S. falls in between Chile and Turkey in terms of average rates, and far behind Britain, France or Greece.

Iceland, Switzerland and Japan have the longest life expectancies and South Africa has the lowest.

Related: When U.S. life expectancy hit a new high

The team also looked at the infant mortality rate, which barely changed in 2016 but which also falls behind the records of other developed countries.

“The 10 leading causes of infant death in 2016 accounted for 67.5 percent of all infant deaths in the United States,” the report reads. They include congenital birth defects, low birth weight and sudden infant death syndrome.

In 2016, 23,161 babies under the age of 1 year died in the U.S, 294 fewer than in 2015.
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