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  #251  
Old 12-21-2017, 04:08 PM
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I remember reading that life expectancy in the US is bifurcating: on the low end of the socio-economic spectrum it's falling, but on the high end (aka the folks who are buying life insurance from our employers) it continues to improve.
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  #252  
Old 01-08-2018, 11:49 AM
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CANCER

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...oking-declines

Quote:
Cancer Deaths Fall to Lowest Rate in Decades
By Ivan Levingston
January 4, 2018, 10:00 AM EST
26 percent fewer Americans died of cancer in 2015 than in 1991
Disparities in death rates between races caused by wealth gaps
Spoiler:
Fewer Americans are getting cancer, and more of those who do are surviving the disease, according to a new study.

In 2015, the most recent year with available data, cancer deaths dropped to 158.6 per 100,000 people, according to a report released Thursday by the American Cancer Society. That rate is 26 percent lower than in 1991, according to the report, or about 2.4 million fewer deaths over that period.

While a number of breakthrough, high-cost drugs have improved the outlook for people with some deadly cancers, the biggest cause of the decrease in deaths is that Americans are smoking less.

“It’s the low-hanging fruit,” said Ahmedin Jemal, the cancer group’s vice president of surveillance and health services research. “We’re going to continue to see this decline because of prevention, primarily reduction in smoking prevalence.”

Jemal said that while innovative new treatments will likely affect the mortality rate, he expects preventative measures to have the strongest effect in the immediate future. The report found decreased smoking rates, and improved detection and treatment, have led to sharp declines in the rate of lung, breast, prostate and colorectal cancer deaths.

Smoking
For most of the 20th century, cancer death rates rose as tobacco usage caused an increasing number of male deaths from lung cancer. However, in the early 1990s that trend reversed, according to the report. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said last year it will take steps to bring the smoking rate down further, by cutting the amount of nicotine in cigarettes and other burnt tobacco products.

Since the cancer mortality rate peaked in 1991, it has fallen more sharply in men than in women. Lung-cancer death rates fell 45 percent among men between 1990 and 2015. For women, the death rate declined 19 percent between 2002 and 2015, according to the report.

“We can do more to accelerate the reduction in mortality rate” by cutting rates of smoking and obesity, said Jemal, the report’s senior author. Obesity is a risk factor for some malignancies, including pancreatic cancer.

Other cancers have also become less lethal. The mortality rate for female breast cancer declined 39 percent between 1989 to 2015, and prostate cancer’s death rate fell 52 percent between 1993 and 2015.

Increased detection of breast cancer at early stages through mammography and improved treatment are behind the drop in breast cancer, Jemal said.

Death rates from other cancers have increased in recent years, including uterine cancers, liver cancers and pancreatic cancer in men.

Wealth inequality has created significant gaps for cancer death rates between racial groups, because some groups have higher rates of smoking and obesity, or access to preventive care and treatment.

African Americans, American Indians and Alaska Natives all have cancer death rates higher than whites, while Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders have the lowest cancer incidence and mortality rates among racial groups tracked in the report.
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  #253  
Old 01-09-2018, 07:22 AM
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CANCER

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/05/s...line.html?_r=0
Quote:
Cancer Deaths Continue a Steep Decline
Spoiler:
From 1991 to 2015, the cancer death rate dropped about 1.5 percent a year, resulting in a total decrease of 26 percent — 2,378,600 fewer deaths than would have occurred had the rate remained at its peak.

The American Cancer Society predicts that in 2018, there will be 1,735,350 new
cases of cancer and 609,640 deaths.

The latest report on cancer statistics appears in CA: A Cancer Journal for
Clinicians.

The most common cancers — in men, tumors of the prostate; in women, breast
— are not the most common causes of cancer death. Although prostate cancer
accounts for 19 percent of cancers in men and breast cancer for 30 percent of cancers
in women, the most common cause of cancer death in both sexes is lung cancer,
which accounts for one-quarter of cancer deaths in both sexes.

In women, 14 percent of deaths are from breast cancer, 7 percent from
pancreatic cancer, and 5 percent from cancer of the ovaries.

In men, prostate cancer causes 9 percent of deaths, while 7 percent are due to
pancreatic cancer and 6 percent to liver cancer. In both sexes, 8 percent of deaths are
from colon and rectal cancer.

Cancer incidence in men rose sharply in the 1990s because of the widespread
use of P.S.A. testing, which detected large numbers of asymptomatic prostate
cancers. Rates of lung cancer in women are now approaching the levels in men.

Over the past decade, cancer incidence in men has dropped by about 2 percent a
year, while it has remained the same in women. There are two reasons, researchers
said.

First, there has been a decline in male lung cancer because fewer men are
smoking, and a decline in colorectal cancer because of men’s increasing use of
colonoscopy. Second, from 2008 to 2013, prostate cancer diagnoses declined with
the decreasing use of P.S.A. testing.

“We’re making progress in reducing death rates from cancer because of
improvements in treatment and early detection,” said the senior author, Ahmedin
Jemal, a vice president of the American Cancer Society. “But prevention is the lowhanging
fruit. We still have 40 million adult smokers in the U.S., which accounts for
nearly a third of cancer deaths.”

Correction: January 8, 2018
An earlier version of this article misstated an effect of cancer in the United States. It
causes a third of all cancer deaths, not a third of all cancers.
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  #254  
Old 01-09-2018, 01:41 PM
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I like their correction. apparently, cancer causes a third of all cancer deaths. That will make a difference in my mortality tables!
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  #255  
Old 01-09-2018, 04:26 PM
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Correcting their correction. " cancer smoking causes a third of all cancer deaths"
It took a couple of tries for me to figure out what part of the article was being corrected.
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  #256  
Old 01-12-2018, 05:41 PM
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https://www.plansponsor.com/soa-meas...-anomaly-2016/

Quote:
SOA Measures Mortality ‘Anomaly’ in 2016
The slight decrease in overall mortality during 2016 measured by the Society of Actuaries may seem to run counter to the CDC’s report that life expectancy at birth declined 0.1 years, however both stats are in fact true.
Spoiler:
The rate of overall mortality improvement has slowed in the most recent five years, according to the latest mortality table analysis published by the Society of Actuaries (SOA).

SOA researchers created and released their latest report to provide insights on the historical levels and emerging trends in U.S. population mortality. The most recently released U.S. population mortality experience from 2016 has been incorporated and added to prior available data to enable analysis of mortality experience over the period 1999 to 2016.

Turning to the fresh cut of the data, SOA finds the overall age adjusted mortality rate for both genders from all causes of death decreased by 0.6% in 2016.

“This decrease in overall mortality may seem to run counter to the CDC’s report that life expectancy at birth declined 0.1 years in 2016,” researchers note. “Generally, a decrease in the mortality rate would be expected to produce an increase in life expectancy. However, both figures are correct. In this respect, 2016 was a somewhat anomalous year.”

SOA researchers explain how, in most years, when age adjusted mortality rates decrease, life expectancy at birth would increase. Conversely, when age adjusted mortality rates increase, life expectancy at birth would decline. This is what occurred in 2015, SOA says, when age adjusted mortality increased by 1.2%, and life expectancy at birth declined by 0.1 years.

“The anomaly that occurred in 2016 is explained by the differing impacts on life expectancy of mortality rate changes of different ages,” according to SOA’s reporting. In 2016, increased mortality rates in the younger and middle ages (mostly due to accidents) reduced life expectancy at birth more than it was extended by mortality improvement at older ages. However, the overall age adjusted mortality rate for the entire U.S. population did decline, by the 0.6% cited above.

According to researchers, the practical outcome here is effectively that the overall decrease of mortality in 2016 reversed the experience of 2015. Mortality improvement in older age groups offset large mortality increases, mostly due to external causes, in middle age groups, SOA notes. All age groups, except ages 15 to 24, had lower mortality in 2016 than 1999.

Additional findings dissect mortality by gender, showing female mortality is lower than male mortality for all causes of death except stroke, which is similar, and for the combination of Alzheimer’s and dementia, which is higher. SOA further finds female-to-male mortality is comparatively much lower for external causes of death (accident, assault, and suicide) than natural causes of death.

The full analysis can be downloaded here.

Tagged: Defined Benefit

https://www.soa.org/research-reports...-observations/
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  #257  
Old 01-26-2018, 05:41 PM
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https://www.soa.org/research-reports...-observations/

Quote:
US Population Mortality Observations - Updated with 2016 Experience
January 2018

A new version of the report was published in the afternoon on 1/11/18, subsequent to its initial release in the morning of 1/11/18, to correct a typographical error. A description of the changes made to the report can be found in its Preface.

This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality. The SOA relied upon data furnished by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Observations are based on the CDC’s recent release of 2016 mortality experience, along with prior mortality experience data from 1999 through 2015.

Materials
US Population Mortality Observations – Updated with 2016 Experience
Pulling out a few factoids:

- Mortality improvement, all causes: Average annual mortality improvement has been lower in the most recent five years, 0.3%, than during 1999-2016, 1.1%.

- Alzheimer's: Over 1999-2013, mortality increased by an average annual rate of 6.2%.

- Cancer: Annual mortality improvement from 1999-2016 ranged from a low of 0.4% in 2010 to a high of 2.2% in 2004 and 2011.

- Heart disease: Mortality improvement over the most recent five years has slowed, relative to 1999-2016. Average annual mortality improvement over 1999-2016 was 2.7%, whereas it was 0.9% in 2011-2016. Annual mortality improvement ranged from -1.0% in 2015 (the only negative year) to 6.2% in 2004.

- Stroke: Over 1999-2013, mortality decreased by an average annual rate of 3.7%.

- Suicide: Over 1999-2016, mortality increased by an average annual rate of 1.6%. Over 1999-2006, mortality increased by an average annual rate of 0.8%. Over 1996-2016, mortality increased by an average annual rate of 2.1%.

- Opioids:

a. The overall mortality rate (both genders) due to opioid drug overdose increased 27.4% in 2016 and was the largest percentage increase in 1999-2016.

b. Between 2013 and 2016, the mortality rate increased at an average annual rate of 18.2%.

c. In 2016, the death rate per 100,000 was 13.2, almost five times the death rate of 2.8 per 100,000 in 1999.
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  #258  
Old 02-08-2018, 02:32 PM
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UNITED STATES

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ncy/316271002/

Quote:
Drugs, alcohol and suicides contribute to alarming drop in U.S. life expectancy
Spoiler:
Life expectancy in the U.S. has fallen for the second year in a row, thanks to a combination of drug and alcohol use and suicides, according to a new report released Wednesday.

The drop was particularly large among middle-age white Americans and those living in rural communities, experts said in a report in the BMJ, formerly known as the British Medical Journal.

The report complements one released in December from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that also found U.S. life expectancy was down for the second straight year.

"We are seeing an alarming increase in deaths from substance abuse and despair," said Steven Woolf at Virginia Commonwealth University, a co-author of the latest report. The idea of the "American Dream" is increasingly out of reach as social mobility declines and fewer children face a better future than their parents, he said.

More: Life expectancy is down for a second year. Drug overdoses are a big reason why.

In 2016, life expectancy in the U.S. was 78.6 years, a decrease of 0.1 years from 2015, according to the report, which cites data from the World Bank. Data from 2017 has yet to be calculated.

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"It may not sound like much, but the alarming story is not the amount of the decrease but that the increase has ended," he said.

In 1960, the U.S. had the highest life expectancy in the world. It's lost ground to other industrialized nations ever since.

Life expectancy in the U.S. is now 1.5 years lower than a group of 35 nations known as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which includes Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom among others.

The report found Americans have poorer health than other nations in many areas, including birth outcomes, injuries, homicides, adolescent pregnancy, HIV/AIDS, obesity, diabetes and heart disease. Americans also engage in unhealthy or risky behaviors — such as high calorie intake, drug abuse and firearm ownership — live in cities designed for cars rather than pedestrians or cyclists, have weaker social welfare supports and lack universal health insurance.

"The consequences of these choices are dire: not only more deaths and illness, but also escalating health care costs, a sicker workforce and a less competitive economy. Future generations may pay the greatest price," the report concludes.

The drop in life expectancy is due to more than the opioid crisis, cited as a main cause in the CDC report last year, Woolf said.

"It’s a larger issue, involving addiction to opioids but also fatal overdoses from other drugs," he said. More importantly, he said it’s accompanied by a dramatic surge in deaths from alcohol abuse and an increase in the suicide rate.

By far, the report found it's a rural issue more than an urban one. "The problem is concentrated in rural, largely white counties that have often struggled for many years with stagnant wages, unemployment, poverty and the loss of major industries that fueled local economies," Woolf said.

As for what to do about it, he said that "the root causes argue for policy solutions, especially those directed at strengthening the middle class that are not getting sufficiently prioritized by elected officials."

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  #259  
Old 02-08-2018, 04:46 PM
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Weren't drugs alcohol and suicide drivers of poor mortality in Russia? (Well, two out of three were, iirc.)
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  #260  
Old 02-08-2018, 05:03 PM
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I assume booze was heavily involved in the following:

Quote:
Originally Posted by campbell View Post
I've been doing a weekly feature on my blog called "Mortality Monday"

today's is about suspicious Russian deaths:
http://stump.marypat.org/article/681...russian-deaths

Just wanted to point out these historical death curves (by calendar year) from Russia:



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