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  #21  
Old 10-18-2015, 06:51 PM
GuyWithHighIQ GuyWithHighIQ is offline
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Originally Posted by campbell View Post
I only have 41 years of experience, some of which was in diapers.
Experience means nothing.

A high IQ person with no experience outperforms a lower IQ person with years of experience with just a few months on the job.

You're not the first doomsday pension actuary who's been saying that $500,000 salary garbage man and elevator mechanics aren't sustainable. I've been hearing your kind for the past 10 years, and yet tax revenues have never been higher.

You can keep telling yourself that some uneducated government worker will have no pension to make yourself feel better. It doesn't matter to me because it's not true (At least for another 100+ years). I'll keep collecting my 70% pension plan when I'm 55. Your children are going to pay for it through higher taxes.
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  #22  
Old 10-18-2015, 08:54 PM
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Mmmhmm.

You seem to confuse what I say will happen with what I want to happen.

Lots of my close family are government workers, and I'm not too happy with the prospects that their retirement income will get whacked.

Of course, you are a not-trying-very-hard troll. But others might be naive (or non-native speakers in English who don't get sarcasm) and not realize that you are an "artist" in the absurd.

So I'm making this explicit.
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  #23  
Old 10-18-2015, 09:57 PM
GuyWithHighIQ GuyWithHighIQ is offline
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Originally Posted by campbell View Post
Mmmhmm.

You seem to confuse what I say will happen with what I want to happen.

Lots of my close family are government workers, and I'm not too happy with the prospects that their retirement income will get whacked.
Lol... No need to lie. You are happy that those people who have stolen your income will get no retirement income.
Too bad it'll never happen, but you can keep dreaming.

Quote:
Of course, you are a not-trying-very-hard troll. But others might be naive (or non-native speakers in English who don't get sarcasm) and not realize that you are an "artist" in the absurd.

So I'm making this explicit.
Keep saying I'm a "troll". Anyone who disagrees with you is a "troll" these days.
Government workers will continue stealing your income and your children's income to fund our bloated salaries and retirement incomes. Deal with it. It's not changing.
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  #24  
Old 10-29-2015, 12:52 PM
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CHINA
ONE-CHILD POLICY BECOMES TWO-CHILD POLICY

http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-ab...16462?mod=e2fb

Quote:
BEIJING—China will abandon its one-child policy, perhaps the most notorious of the Communist Party’s intrusions into Chinese lives, amid a looming demographic crunch that threatens the long-term health of the world’s second-largest economy.

All Chinese couples will be allowed to have two children, Chinese official media said in a brief statement, showing Beijing isn’t yet ready to totally relinquish its grip on the homes and bedrooms of its people. Still, the move is symbolically significant and amounts to an acknowledgment of the social and demographic problems the 35-year-old policy has created.

.....
Chinese officials will now face pressure to drop its reproductive controls altogether. Many demographers say that a move two years ago that sharply weakened the policy resulted in a disappointingly low bump in births, suggesting Chinese couples need additional impetus to have babies. They warn that China faces a labor crunch and growing elderly population that combined will challenge growth in coming decades.

In effect, said Cai Yong, an expert in China’s demography and professor at the University of North Carolina, China risks becoming old before it becomes rich. “I’m quite pessimistic,” said Mr. Cai, who said fertility rates are roughly 1.5 children per woman and won’t increase in time to replenish retiring workers.

Even without the one-child policy, many Chinese worry about the expense of a second child in a country where education and products like imported baby formula can be costly, Mr. Cai said. They also tend to have fewer children as their education levels and incomes rise, as in developed countries.

.....
Many business figures, like James Liang, the co-founder and chief executive of travel site Ctrip.com International Ltd., say the shift isn’t enough. “It should be completely removed,” said Mr. Liang. “Even with no restrictions, there would be too few babies,” he said.

.....
The one-child policy led to myriad problems, including abortions and sterilization forced upon women by officials to meet population targets and tiny nuclear families that placed the burden of elderly care on single children. It also created a gender imbalance due to a historical preference for males. It left 150 million Chinese families, or one in three, with only one child, said Mr. Wang, of Fudan University.

China’s working-age population—those ages 15 to 64—is already drastically shrinking. The United Nations projects that China will lose 67 million workers from 2010 to 2030. The U.N also projects that the elderly population will soar, from 110 million in 2010 to 210 million in 2030, and will account for a quarter of the population by 2050.

.....
Even rural residents, many of which have been exempt of the one-child policy, are reluctant to have bigger families, said Scott Rozelle, co-director of Stanford University’s Rural Education Action Program. “Fertility has collapsed in rural and poor areas,”said Mr. Rozelle. “Anyone there can have two or three babies, but no one wants that.”

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  #25  
Old 10-29-2015, 05:07 PM
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Originally Posted by GuyWithHighIQ View Post
Experience means nothing.

A high IQ person with no experience outperforms a lower IQ person with years of experience with just a few months on the job.

You're not the first doomsday pension actuary who's been saying that $500,000 salary garbage man and elevator mechanics aren't sustainable. I've been hearing your kind for the past 10 years, and yet tax revenues have never been higher.

You can keep telling yourself that some uneducated government worker will have no pension to make yourself feel better. It doesn't matter to me because it's not true (At least for another 100+ years). I'll keep collecting my 70% pension plan when I'm 55. Your children are going to pay for it through higher taxes.
Nominal dollars are a very lousy way to evaluate the size of tax revenues
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  #26  
Old 11-23-2015, 10:21 AM
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looks like the WSJ is doing a feature this week

http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-demo...omy-1448203724

Quote:
The developed world’s workforce will start to decline next year, threatening future global growth

By Greg Ip
Ever since the global financial crisis, economists have groped for reasons to explain why growth in the U.S. and abroad has repeatedly disappointed, citing everything from fiscal austerity to the euro meltdown. They are now coming to realize that one of the stiffest headwinds is also one of the hardest to overcome: demographics.

Next year, the world’s advanced economies will reach a critical milestone. For the first time since 1950, their combined working-age population will decline, according to United Nations projections, and by 2050 it will shrink 5%. The ranks of workers will also fall in key emerging markets, such as China and Russia. At the same time the share of these countries’ population over 65 will skyrocket.

.....
Mounting pensions are an important reason peripheral European countries like Greece have such intractable debt burdens and why Germany is so reluctant to stimulate its own economy despite a balanced budget. Meanwhile, the movement of so many people into the highest-saving period of their lives has produced a bulge of excess savings that has held down interest rates and inflation, making it difficult for central bankers to use their traditional tools to revive economic growth.


Demographic forces are assumed to be slow-moving and predictable. By historical standards, though, these aren’t, says Amlan Roy, a demographics expert at Credit Suisse. They are “dramatic and unprecedented,” he says, noting it took 80 years for the U.S. median age to rise seven years, to 30, by 1980, and just 34 more to climb another eight, to 38.
.....
Japan is an extreme case, but the rest of the advanced world and many emerging economies are following similar paths. By 2050, the world’s population will have grown 32%, but the working-age population (15 to 64 years old) will expand just 26%.

Among advanced countries, the working-age population will shrink 26% in South Korea, 28% in Japan, and 23% in both Germany and Italy, according to the U.N. For middle-income countries it will rise 23%, led by India at 33%. But Brazil’s will edge up just 3% while Russia’s and China’s will contract 21%.

Among rich countries, the U.S. remains demographically fortunate: Its working-age population should grow 10% by 2050. But it will still shrink as a share of total population from 66% to 60%. The demographic drag on growth, in other words, will last decades.
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  #27  
Old 12-07-2015, 05:09 PM
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Mish rounds up a bunch of different countries in one post

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...nd+Analysis%29

Quote:
Spanish Birthrate Plummets

Please consider Spain Dying as its Birthrate Plummets.
Quote:
Spain’s population will fall by more than five million over the next 50 years, according to a forecast that raises the prospect of even more “ghost villages” around the country.

In the first six months of this year, Spain recorded 225,924 deaths and 206,656 births, the national statistics institute reported. The country has not seen deaths exceed births consistently since the civil war, from 1936 to 1939, and before that the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.
....
Death of Spain's Interior

In almost half of Spanish provinces, a third of inhabitants are aged 65 or over. Quite literally, it's a case of Spain’s Dying Interior.
.....
German Population Shrinks

Reuters reports German birth rate grows, but population shrinks.
Quote:
Germany's birth rate rose last year to its highest level in 12 years, helped by years of economic growth and government support, but not enough to offset the death rate, and its overall population continued to decline.

Births rose by 4.8 percent in 2014 and climbed above the 700,000-threshold for the first time since 2004 to 714,966, the statistics office said.

The declining number of Germans is partly being offset by rising immigration. Some 8.6 percent of its population of 81.8 million are foreigners.
.....
Italy on Threshold of Population Deflation

The Guardian reports Italy is a 'dying country' says minister as birth rate plummets.
.....
France Net Positive Birth Rate

In France the birth rate is 12.49/1,000 population whereas the death rate is 9.06/1000 population and immigration is 1.09/1,000 population as per.

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  #28  
Old 01-12-2016, 04:56 PM
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JAPAN

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/201.../#.Vo6mtPkrKUl

Quote:
Government weighs immigration to maintain population, boost workforce

This is the last of a five-part series on Japan’s population woes caused by its graying society and low birthrate.

A shrinking population has long been an issue for an increasingly graying Japan.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in September announced administrative measures seeking to maintain a population of at least 100 million people over the next 50 years with a target of significantly raising the fertility rate to 1.8 — a figure the government says is reachable if people today marry and have as many children as they wish.

The government worries that if the fertility rate — 1.42 in 2014 — continues to remain low, the population will dip to about 80 million by 2065 and even 40 million by 2115, causing a significant labor shortage and decline in people’s standard of living due to reduced economies of scale.

However, considering the difficulty of meeting the population target by only raising the fertility rate, the government has also been discussing accepting more immigrants. In February 2014, the Cabinet Office revealed that Japan will likely only be able to maintain a population of more than 100 million if it accepts 200,000 immigrants annually from 2015 and the total fertility rate recovers to 2.07 by 2030.

But accepting such massive numbers of immigrants is currently unrealistic given Abe’s reluctance to open the doors to immigrants to stay permanently, except for those the government regards as skilled professionals.

Instead, Abe is planning to expand the foreign trainee program to solve labor shortages in industries such as construction, which faces increased demand for labor ahead of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

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  #29  
Old 01-18-2016, 05:03 PM
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EUROPE

http://phys.org/news/2016-01-people-...ying-born.html

Quote:
More people in Europe are dying than are being born
January 14, 2016

More people in Europe are dying than are being born, according to a new report co-authored by a Texas A&M University demographer. In contrast, births exceed deaths, by significant margins, in Texas and elsewhere in the U.S., with few exceptions.

Texas A&M Professor of Sociology Dudley Poston, along with Professor Kenneth Johnson, University of New Hampshire, and Professor Layton Field, Mount St. Mary's University, published their findings in Population and Development Review this month.

The researchers find that 17 European nations have more people dying in them than are being born (natural decrease), including three of Europe's more populous nations: Russia, Germany and Italy. In contrast, in the U.S. and in the state of Texas, births exceed deaths by a substantial margin.
.....
Though natural decrease was common in much of Europe, findings show that's far from universal. Natural increase (more births than deaths) is widespread in Ireland, Cyprus, Iceland, Lichtenstein and Luxembourg. Natural increase is also evident in broad regions of France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, United Kingdom and Norway.

In the U.S., deaths exceed births most significantly in a north-sound band from the Dakotas through Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma, down to central Texas. Poston and his colleagues Johnson and Field note that this natural decrease can be attributed to the predominance of agriculture and youth adult outmigration. Also natural decrease is found in retirement destinations in Florida, Arizona and Texas due to a substantial inflow of older adults. Other states with higher death than birth rates include North Dakota, Montana, Maine and West Virginia; many other U.S. states have little, if any, natural decrease.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-01-people-...-born.html#jCp
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  #30  
Old 02-03-2016, 06:33 PM
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SOUTH KOREA

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-s...country-2016-1

Quote:
South Korea has such a low birth rate that it could become the world's oldest country by 2045, with an average age of 50. If things continue at this rate, the country could even go extinct by 2750. All that aging is putting the country into some dire economic straits.

Solving this demographic crisis will take more than national sex nights.

Richard Jackson, president of the nonprofit Global Aging Institute, argues that it could require a fundamental change in workplace and gender dynamics.

"Policies that help women (and men) balance jobs and children are the linchpin of any effective pronatal strategy," he wrote in "The Graying of the Great Powers."

This is true of Korea more than anywhere else in the developed world, Jackson said in an interview with Tech Insider.
....
Nicholas Eberstadt, an American Enterprise Institute political economist, tells Tech Insider that the best the Korean government can do to increase the birthrate is "work at the margins."

The birth rate isn't like the economy: There's no cutting interest rates to make it easier to borrow money and spur business investment, there's no switch to be flipped.

But promoting gender equality at work is a good start.

Jackson points to two models that work for other developed countries:

There's the "nanny state" model, like in France and Sweden. In these countries, you have a job guarantee if you take maternity leave, and gender equality in Sweden is engineered so that if the mother of a child takes maternity leave, then the father has to take paternity leave for the second child. In France, the government will give you "family allowances" for having more children. And there's no social stigma for a mother of young children going back to work — the kids are expected to go to publicly funded crèche (day cares). It's part of a child's socialization.

And then there's the "flexible labor" model, like in the US. Though there isn't the same state support, it's become culturally normalized in the US to reenter the workforce, work flexibly, and otherwise combine professional and familial ambitions. The flexible labor comes in the form of part-time work, the ability to go back to school, getting degrees online, or starting a new career. While there are career-opportunity costs to diverting your energy from work to family, it's better than in Japan or South Korea, Jackson says, places where if you step off the career ladder, you don't get back on.

Korea, like Japan, may be a better fit for the nanny-state model, Jackson says.
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