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View Poll Results: 4 p(McCain) 72 >>> Prob that McCain lives 4 years past age 72
High 58 66.67%
Low 29 33.33%
Voters: 87. You may not vote on this poll

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  #31  
Old 09-12-2008, 10:40 AM
1695814 1695814 is offline
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I don't understand the poll nor the poll choices.
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  #32  
Old 09-12-2008, 10:42 AM
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I did not like nine billion actuary tables last summer.

skidoosh:
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  #33  
Old 09-12-2008, 10:58 AM
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2001 VBT ANB ultimate

1 - (1-0.0297)(1-0.03286)(1-0.03632)(1-0.04008) = 13% that he'll die in the first term. Not as high as Damon suggests but high none the less.

16% if you load it to CSO.


I don't know how he would be rated or even if he's insurable.
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  #34  
Old 09-12-2008, 11:34 AM
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9% using actaurial judgment (that's how we do it on the P&C side)
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  #35  
Old 09-12-2008, 11:35 AM
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Hey Jack, I just heard this stat quoted again on the radio, but they said 33% was the two-term mortality probability. I don't work in life, can you give us 8q72? Just curious, thanks
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  #36  
Old 09-12-2008, 11:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rekrap View Post
What Matt Damon doesn't realize is that the P(Obama doesn't survive his first term) > P(McCain doesn't survive his first term), due to the increase probability of assassination attempts for being such a charismatic person, which McCain is certainly not.
Is that code for black?
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  #37  
Old 09-12-2008, 11:54 AM
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Default RP2000 Tables

You guys are hilarious...

If you use the RP2000 tables, white collar, disabled retiree, then we're looking at about a 1 in 4 chance he'll die before the 1st term is over. But I'm not sure how they define disabled. According to wikipedia, he was designated as disabled by the Navy in 1981.

If you use a healthy mortality for annuitants, then we're looking at about a 1 in 10 chance.

It's all about the assumptions baby!
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  #38  
Old 09-12-2008, 11:55 AM
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IFYP - we do have an edit button, btw.

Quote:
Apparently acting in Good Will Hunting doesn't make a person a real-life math genius. Even accepting his wicked bahd math, I'd rather take that "1 in 3" chance than the 100% certain Democratic strategy of taking on Putin by "community organizing".
What is the probability that after n posts, the posts will be even remotely on topic?
We're already slipping pretty close to a political thread, rather than a debate about the actuarial probability, or about which table to use to make the assessment.
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  #39  
Old 09-12-2008, 11:55 AM
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Cool Palin's No Pig

Quote:
Originally Posted by Schnook View Post
MATT DAMON
Is that lipstick on that pig? He's no Sarah Palin. Could be Arnold's lieutenant.
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  #40  
Old 09-12-2008, 12:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Keep It Real, Yo View Post
Seriously. Will Hunting is just baiting us. We disagree and then, "Of course that's your contention, you just passed Exam 3 and read Actuarial Mathematics. Next year you're going to be in here talking about loading for Cancer and Family History. Do you just look at the tables or do you have any thoughts of your own on the matta? The sad thing is, you just dropped $15 grand of your company's money on exam fees and materials that you could've gotten for a $1.50 in late cha-ges at the Drake University library. How do you like THEM apples?"
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