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  #331  
Old 12-31-2018, 03:05 PM
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/deaths-...ts-11546088400

Quote:
Deaths Level Off—and Even Decline—in Some Opioid Hotspots
New Hampshire, Ohio cite efforts with overdose-reversal drug and push against painkiller abuse
Spoiler:
New Hampshire is close to posting its first decline in drug deaths in six years, echoing trends in some other states as the national overdose-fatality rate appears to be leveling off.
The state medical examiner’s office earlier this month projected there would be 437 drug deaths this year, a 10% decline from 2017, when the fatality rate plateaued. Before that, New Hampshire’s numbers had climbed steadily since 2013.
While the death toll remains historically high, officials are eager for any hint of improvement. “We’ve definitely made some progress here, which is great,” said Gov. Chris Sununu, a Republican, who credited state efforts including increased access to the overdose-reversal drug naloxone.
“There’s a lot more work to be done,” Mr. Sununu said, pointing to a plan rolling out in 2019 designed to triage people in need and shuttle them to the right services.
Some other states with severe opioid problems are citing progress, including Ohio and Kentucky. Rhode Island is also trending toward a slight decline this year, following a similar result last year. These were among the states with the highest rates of fatal overdoses in 2017, when 70,237 people died nationwide, a 10% increase from the prior year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
After a sharp rise for several years fueled by potent synthetic opioids such as fentanyl, the national death toll appears to have at least flattened out, according to the most recent provisional CDC data, which ran through May.
Drug epidemics typically go through four phases, from introduction to expansion, leveling off and then declining, said James Hall, an epidemiologist at the Center for Applied Research on Substance Use and Health Disparities at Nova Southeastern University in Florida. New Hampshire was an early hotspot for the fentanyl crisis and appears to be following this pattern, Mr. Hall said.
“I think different regions across the country are experiencing the early days of the plateau phase,” Mr. Hall said. He cautioned that data remain spotty and that it is too early to say if the overall death toll is waning.
Some states continue to struggle. Preliminary data indicate Delaware is on track for at least 400 overdose deaths this year, which means the death toll could rise more than 16%, said Jill Fredel, spokeswoman for the state’s Department of Health and Social Services. Fentanyl started hitting Delaware hard in 2016 and appears to still be driving the expanding crisis there.
In Ohio, long an opioid hotspot, deaths dropped 23% in the second half of 2017 from the first, according to the state’s health department. Preliminary data show the decline has continued into 2018, a spokesman said.
One factor appears to be the short-lived appearance of carfentanil, an opioid with up to 100 times the potency of fentanyl. Carfentanil’s sudden mid-2016 arrival drove a surge in Ohio fatalities there, but local coroners say carfentanil-linked deaths dropped dramatically a year later.
Thomas Gilson, Cuyahoga County’s medical examiner, forecasts the county, which includes Cleveland, is on pace for a 20% decline in fatal overdoses this year.
“It’s not victory by any measure, but it’s progress,” he said. Montgomery County, home to Dayton, is projecting an even steeper decline this year.
Ohio has trumpeted more than $1 billion spent on policy efforts, including expanding naloxone access and painkiller-abuse prevention. The state’s health department says deaths from prescription opioids—sometimes a stepping stone to heroin and illicit fentanyl—dropped to an eight-year low in 2017.
New Hampshire policy makers are seizing on any sign that their efforts, such as a push to get naloxone into citizens’ hands, are bearing fruit. Proponents say this can help save more lives, because a bystander with naloxone, often known by the brand Narcan, may be the first person to witness an overdose.
“We’ve seen a substantial increase in the amount of times we arrive at a scene and there’s Narcan already administered by the family or general public,” said Chris Stawasz, regional director for American Medical Response, an ambulance company covering New Hampshire’s two biggest cities.

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  #332  
Old 01-02-2019, 05:58 PM
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A couple related items:

https://www.nber.org/digest/jan19/w25124.shtml

Quote:
Early Retirement and Mortality Rates of Blue-Collar Men

For blue-collar male workers in Austria, an extra year of early retirement, induced by a policy change, was associated with an increase in the probability of death before age 73 of 1.85 percentage points.


Spoiler:
Many workers dream of retiring as early as possible to pursue travel, leisure, sport, and other pursuits. But the research findings in Fatal Attraction? Extended Unemployment Benefits, Labor Force Exits, and Mortality (NBER Working Paper No. 25124), a study by Andreas Kuhn, Stefan Staubli, Jean-Philippe Wuellrich, and Josef Zweimüller, suggest that some individuals, particularly men, might want to postpone retirement if possible. Studying a temporary change in unemployment insurance rules in Austria which allowed workers to retire early, they find that men who retired before the normal retirement age experienced an increased risk of premature death. They do not find any statistically significant effect of early retirement on women.

Many nations are grappling with aging populations and the strains that pension and medical-care obligations place on government budgets. Some are considering changes to retirement programs, such as raising the age of eligibility or reducing benefits. The effect of such changes on the health and well-being of the elderly is a subject of ongoing debate.

To shed light on this question, the researchers analyze a unique public program in Austria in the late 1980s and early 1990s that was adopted when that nation's steel sector underwent dramatic downsizing. The shock affected tens of thousands of workers and their family members, and to cushion the economic blow to older workers, the Austrian government implemented the Regional Extended Benefits Program (REBP). This program effectively allowed workers to take early retirement via disability insurance or old-age pension programs. The program was only available in some regions of the country.

Using information from the Austrian Social Security Database, the researchers were able to compare the employment histories, incomes, gender, age, retirement dates, and age at death of those who took early retirement and those who were eligible but did not. They ultimately compiled information on 310,440 men and 144,532 women — excluding those from the steel sector — and compared data from REBP — eligible regions and nearby non-REBP regions.

The program induced a significant increase in early retirement. When the researchers examined the mortality rates of those who took early retirement, they found that an additional year in early retirement increased a man's probability of death before age 73 by 1.85 percentage points — equivalent to a relative increase of 6.8 percent — and reduced the age at death by 0.2 years. For women, early retirement was not associated with elevated mortality, a finding that is in line with previous research by others.

Men in blue-collar occupations, men with low work experience, and men who had some pre-existing health impairment displayed higher mortality effects than men in white-collar occupations. An additional year in early retirement increased the probability of death before age 73 by 1.91 percentage points for blue-collar men, 3.45 percentage points among men who have spent some time on sick leave, and by 2.42 percentage points among men with low work experience.

To check the robustness of their findings, the researchers analyzed data from before and after the early retirement program and found no differences in mortality and early retirement trends between those two periods. They also found that the changes in lifetime income associated with early retirement were negligible, particularly when generous government old-age benefits were counted, and that they could not explain the increased mortality among certain groups of the population. The researchers suggest that lifestyle changes may explain the study's mortality findings.


https://www.nber.org/papers/w24127

Quote:
The Mortality Effects of Retirement: Evidence from Social Security Eligibility at Age 62
Maria D. Fitzpatrick, Timothy J. Moore
NBER Working Paper No. 24127
Issued in December 2017
NBER Program(s):Aging, Labor Studies, Public Economics
Social Security eligibility begins at age 62, and approximately one third of Americans immediately claim at that age. We examine whether age 62 is associated with a discontinuous change in aggregate mortality, a key measure of population health. Using mortality data that covers the entire U.S. population and includes exact dates of birth and death, we document a robust two percent increase in male mortality immediately after age 62. The change in female mortality is smaller and imprecisely estimated. Additional analysis suggests that the increase in male mortality is connected to retirement from the labor force and associated lifestyle changes.

I probably linked that second one before.
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  #333  
Old 01-03-2019, 09:01 AM
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Story on the French woman who holds the record for living the longest.


https://news.yahoo.com/report-claims...112541093.html
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  #334  
Old 01-03-2019, 09:57 AM
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Originally Posted by DES View Post
Story on the French woman who holds the record for living the longest.


https://news.yahoo.com/report-claims...112541093.html
http://www.actuarialoutpost.com/actu...d.php?t=337172
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  #335  
Old 01-08-2019, 05:00 PM
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SOA update with 2017 CDC data

https://www.soa.org/resources/resear...-observations/

from the paper:

Quote:
The overall age-adjusted mortality rate (both genders) from all causes of death increased 0.4% in 2017, following a 0.6% decrease in 2016. The CDC reported that life expectancy at birth declined 0.1 years in 2016 and 20172. Generally, an increase in the mortality rate would be expected to produce a decrease in life expectancy as occurred in 2017. The converse is also true. When mortality decreases, life expectancy would normally increase, but 2016 was an anomalous year in that regard. The anomaly that occurred in 2016 is explained by the differing impacts on life expectancy of mortality rate changes of different ages. In 2016, increased mortality rates in the younger and middle ages (mostly due to accidents) reduced life expectancy at birth more than it was extended by mortality improvement at older ages.

Age-adjusted rates are calculated assuming the mix of ages in the population stays the same each year. Life expectancy is a composite of mortality rates over a single person’s future lifetime. This report focuses on age-adjusted rates (2010 baseline year), as opposed to life expectancy, because actuaries generally require mortality rates, not life expectancies, as an input assumption for their work.

U.S. Population deaths of 2,813,503 in 2017 were the highest in history3. Heart disease remains the number one killer and accidents were the highest external COD in 2017. The number of deaths in 2017 for the population by the CODs studied in this report are shown below in descending rank order. Except for heart disease and cancer, all CODs’ mortality increased or were flat in 2017. In an attribution of the -0.4% improvement in 2017 to CODs, heart and cancer contributed 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively, while accidents and other causes (not studied in this report) each contributed -0.3%. Alzheimer’s-dementia, pulmonary, diabetes, and suicide each contributed -0.1%.
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  #336  
Old 01-15-2019, 06:52 PM
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https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2019/01...nuitiesInsider
Quote:
5 Things Actuaries Are Saying About Death Now
A new U.S. population mortality update could affect life and annuity product design and pricing.

Spoiler:
Figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that overall U.S. life expectancy seems to have peaked.
Average U.S. life expectancy at birth fell to 78.6 years in 2017, from 78.7 years the year before, and down from an all-time high of 78.9 years two years earlier.

(Related: The 5 States Where Death Is Most Unfair)
Life insurers use their own private mortality data, and general life insurance industry mortality data, to design and price life insurance policies and annuities. Some of the top mortality experts in the world are the life insurance and pension actuaries who work on Society of Actuary (SOA) mortality analyses.

Three SOA actuaries — R. Jerome Holman, Cynthia MacDonald and Peter Miller — recently released a new mortality report, “U.S. Population Mortality Observers: Updated with 2017 Experience.”

The report could help how life insurers design and price products such as life insurance policies and annuities. Higher death rates typically hurt the performance of life insurance policies but may improve the performance of annuities and other products with longevity-related benefits streams, such as disability insurance and long-term care insurance.
Here’s a look at five things that happened to U.S. mortality in 2017, drawn from the new SOA report.

1. Only about one-third of the people who die are ages 85 or older.
In 2017, 878,035 of the 2.8 million people who died were ages 85 or older.

About 658,000 were ages 75 to 84, and about 532,000 were ages 65 to 74.

2. The “oldest old” U.S. residents looked worse in 2017.
When the CDC published mortality data for 2016, factors such as drug overdoses hurt the life expectancy of young adults and middle-aged adults.

That year, the life expectancy for people ages 65 and older, and for people ages 85 and older, continued to improve.

In 2017, the mortality rate for people ages 85 and older increased 1.4%.

The only other age groups that had a worse increase in their mortality rates were the 34-44 age group, with a 1.6% increase in its mortality rate, and the 25-34 age group, with a 2.9% increase in its mortality rate.

3. Women are controlling diabetes better than men are.
In 1999, diabetes killed about 83 women for every 100 men who died from the condition.

In 2017, female-to-male diabetes death rate ratio fell to 64 to 100.

But the female-to-male mortality ratio for Alzheimer’s and dementia increased to about 133% in 2017, from about 121% in 1999.

4. Something went wrong with efforts to control diabetes in 2017.
In 2017, the overall mortality rate from diabetes, for both men and women, went in the wrong direction: It increased 2.1%.

The overall diabetes mortality death rate fell 1.2% in 2016, and an average of 0.6% per year from 2011 through 2016.

5. Young adults in high-income counties have had problems.
The SOA team broke out separate data for age-adjusted death rates for counties in the top 15% in the United States in terms of income.

When the SOA team created a table showing how the age-adjusted death rates changed each year from 1999 through 2017, for each age group and income group, they found that people ages 25 through 34 the suffered from the worst death rate change numbers.

People ages 25 through 34 in the highest-income counties had the worst death rate change numbers of all.

The age-adjusted death rate for all causes of death, for all Americans, improved an average of 1% per year.

For all people ages 25 through 34, the age-adjusted death rate got worse: It increased an average of 1.5% per year.

For people in the 25-34 age group in the counties in the top 15% in terms of income, the death rate deteriorated even more: It increased an average of 2% per year.

Resources
The SOA has posted the mortality observations report, and a collection of related spreadsheets, here.


https://www.soa.org/resources/resear...-observations/
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  #337  
Old 01-15-2019, 06:55 PM
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Hmmmm. So, the mortality improvement scale should be 0.
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Old 01-16-2019, 12:18 PM
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Hmmmm. So, the mortality improvement scale should be 0.
Or negative
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