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  #441  
Old 06-21-2019, 12:38 PM
lulzEMH lulzEMH is offline
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It still looks like they are going to meet Q2 guidance based on a couple minutes on twitter.
Their guidance of 90k to 100k? I'll take the under on that midpoint for sure (50/50 on 90k). Or their End of Q1 guidance that they still planned to sell 360k to 400k cars this year which implies they need to sell 99k each quarter since Q1 was only 63k. I'll take the under on that as well for Q2, Q3 and Q4.
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  #442  
Old 06-21-2019, 12:41 PM
LunchBox LunchBox is offline
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I think Q2 it looks likely they'll break 90.

Q3 I'm guessing is less than Q2. So I guess they'll miss full year. I'm just casually following and that's my opinion.
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  #443  
Old 06-25-2019, 02:53 PM
lulzEMH lulzEMH is offline
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I think Q2 it looks likely they'll break 90.

Q3 I'm guessing is less than Q2. So I guess they'll miss full year. I'm just casually following and that's my opinion.
Electrek now backtracking on delivery numbers and has no interest in discussing the crappy car mix/price cuts and low margins.

https://electrek.co/2019/06/25/tesla...ry-bottleneck/

Q2 will be the high water market for 2019... Q3 and Q4 it only gets worse.
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  #444  
Old 06-25-2019, 04:02 PM
LunchBox LunchBox is offline
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More orders than they can deliver doesn't sound like a demand problem.

So now they are likely to miss the 90k but get more in Q3?
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  #445  
Old 06-25-2019, 04:14 PM
lulzEMH lulzEMH is offline
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More orders than they can deliver doesn't sound like a demand problem.

So now they are likely to miss the 90k but get more in Q3?
I feel like you are new to this game.

They had 10k at the end of Q1 that they couldn't get delivered. Every quarter has cars in transit, its the net change that matters (EOP -BOP) to determine weather or not they had a net positive/negative impact or quarterly deliveries.

Q3 is going to be bad, not Q1 bad but much worse than Q2 (and the first YoY quarter with a drop in sales, Q4 will prove that the pattern wasn't a fluke).
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  #446  
Old 06-26-2019, 09:28 AM
LunchBox LunchBox is offline
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Elon leak saying they are on target for guidance.

Bulls: See, there's no demand problem
Bears: Guidance miss and demand problem proven
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  #447  
Old 06-26-2019, 09:59 AM
lulzEMH lulzEMH is offline
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Elon leak saying they are on target for guidance.

Bulls: See, there's no demand problem
Bears: Guidance miss and demand problem proven
I think you miss the point of the bears. It's not just about units or price.. bears think that Tesla can sell every car they can physically make if its at a low enough price point or that Tesla couldn't have 40% Gross Margins if they wanted by selling a limited volume (either case tesla loses money). The demand problem is that there isn't enough demand for Tesla's at a price point that Tesla can profitably make them.. hence the cash burn, losses and constant capital raises.

Musk said "The demand is is insanely high just people can afford them. " Bears point.. Tesla fans heard demand is high.
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  #448  
Old 06-26-2019, 10:21 AM
LunchBox LunchBox is offline
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I thought they stopped cutting prices
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  #449  
Old 06-26-2019, 10:43 AM
lulzEMH lulzEMH is offline
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I thought they stopped cutting prices
In the past 30 minutes, I believe you are correct. Prices were steady.
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  #450  
Old 06-26-2019, 11:59 AM
LunchBox LunchBox is offline
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ha!
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