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View Poll Results: 4 p(McCain) 72 >>> Prob that McCain lives 4 years past age 72
High 58 66.67%
Low 29 33.33%
Voters: 87. You may not vote on this poll

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  #51  
Old 09-12-2008, 02:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Keef View Post
Since McCain has received rich health care benefits as a policitican for the past 25 + years (probably had decent health care for his whole life except his time as POW), and would receive absolute state-of-the art care if he were to become POTUSA, I believe his mortality would be standard or better. Also factor in the that he would be accompanied everywhere by Secret Service & other agents who are familiar with emergency first aid & could get him to a hospital/doctor much quicker than the average person (remember GW's pretzel incident?).

Therefore, I conclude that even an 8% chance of dying in his frist term is high according to "the actuary tables" and that Matt Damon is waaaaaaaaaaay off.
add in the fact that he has the world's most high stress job
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  #52  
Old 09-12-2008, 02:20 PM
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add in the fact that he has the world's most high stress job
Didn't you get the memo? He was a POW for 5 years. I think he can handle the stress.
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  #53  
Old 09-12-2008, 02:21 PM
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Didn't you get the memo? He was a POW for 5 years. I think he can handle the stress.
He was much younger than
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  #54  
Old 09-12-2008, 02:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Patience View Post
He was much younger than
younger than whom?
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  #55  
Old 09-12-2008, 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Keef View Post
Since McCain has received rich health care benefits as a policitican for the past 25 + years (probably had decent health care for his whole life except his time as POW), and would receive absolute state-of-the art care if he were to become POTUSA, I believe his mortality would be standard or better. Also factor in the that he would be accompanied everywhere by Secret Service & other agents who are familiar with emergency first aid & could get him to a hospital/doctor much quicker than the average person (remember GW's pretzel incident?).

Therefore, I conclude that even an 8% chance of dying in his frist term is high according to "the actuary tables" and that Matt Damon is waaaaaaaaaaay off.
With the whole "cancer" thing there is little chance that he would get standard

That, and I'm giving Jason Bourne the benefit of the doubt and being a bit "conservative".
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  #56  
Old 09-12-2008, 03:25 PM
Five in Two Five in Two is offline
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Originally Posted by Keep It Real, Yo View Post
Seriously. Will Hunting is just baiting us. We disagree and then, "Of course that's your contention, you just passed Exam 3 and read Actuarial Mathematics. Next year you're going to be in here talking about loading for Cancer and Family History. Do you just look at the tables or do you have any thoughts of your own on the matta? The sad thing is, you just dropped $15 grand of your company's money on exam fees and materials that you could've gotten for a $1.50 in late cha-ges at the Drake University library. How do you like THEM apples?"
+1
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  #57  
Old 09-12-2008, 03:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Tom View Post
Lend me your actuarial knowledge, and let's work this problem out.

Is he right or is he wrong? Close or way off? Explain. Best rebuttal wins!

This actuarial contest was inspired by: This thread, Matt Damon, Glenn, and the letter Q.

Yes... there will be prizes.
WHY IS EVERYONE CONTESTING THE ACTUARY TABLES??? HE DID THEM; THEY CAME OUT 33.333+%. ARE YOU QUESTIONING HIS PROCESS?

ALL TOM WANTS HERE IS A REBUTTAL OF THE "REALLY BAD DISNEY MOVIE" STATEMENT. I THINK MOST DISNEY MOVIES ARE GREAT. I MEAN, LOOK AT THAT NEW CHIHUAHUA MOVIE COMING OUT... OR THE ONE ABOUT THE FLIES IN SPACE. IF IT'S GOT DISNEY'S NAME ON IT, IT'S GOING TO BE A WINNER. ME AND 4 YEAR OLDS ALIKE LOVE THESE CRAZY DISNEY IDEAS BROUGHT TO LIFE IN THE FULL ANIMATED MAGIC OF A HAPPY AFTERNOON. NO, MATT DAMON, THERE'S NO REASON TO GO THERE.

PROOF:
MATT DAMON HAS NEVER ACTED IN A DISNEY MOVIE.
MATT DAMON WAS IN THE MOVIES "JERSEY GIRL" AND "STUCK ON YOU"
"JERSEY GIRL" AND "STUCK ON YOU" COULD BE ARGUABLY LABELLED "BAD"
MATT DAMON HAS NO RIGHT TO COMMENT ON DISNEY.

USING THE ROSANNE BARR METHOD OF REFUTING OPINIONS BY SLANDERIZING THE DISAGREEABLE INDIVIDUALS TO THE POINT OF THEM GIVING UP DEFENDING THEIR POINTS BY NO LONGER POSTING ON HER HATE-BLOG, THERE EXIST NO "BAD DISNEY MOVIES."

Q.E.D.

HARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!
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  #58  
Old 09-12-2008, 04:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Weekend View Post
I believe Matt Damon just didn't explain the assumptions he was using. If he used the 1868 American Experience table and rated McCain slightly substandard (adding 2 years), then his calculations look pretty spot on (4p74 = .6598). How come exactly right isn't a choice?
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  #59  
Old 09-12-2008, 05:43 PM
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Matt Damon must be right because he solved the fourier proof.
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  #60  
Old 09-12-2008, 06:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Person Man View Post
He's wrong, because according to my extensive research, seven presidents won election to their first term in years divisible by 10. Of these, 5 died in office. The two survivors were Jefferson and Reagan, and it's no coincidence that they are #2 and #3 on the list of greatest presidents of all time. Even the "Divisible by 10" curse couldn't touch them.

The remaining 35 presidents won their first presidential election in years not divisible by ten or assumed the office. Of those, only three died in office, Zachary Taylor, William McKinley and FDR. We'll throw out FDR as a data point because he served more than two terms and because God punished him with polio for being a socialist. That leaves 2 out of 34.

Since 2008 is not divisible by 10, I conclude that McCain has a 1 in 17 chance of dying in office, much less than 1 in 3. On the other hand, 2000 is divisible by 10 and Bush is not one of the greatest presidents of all time, so there is a 100% chance that Bush will die in office sometime in the next 4 months and we'll see President Cheney. That's what Damon should really be worried about.
ROTFLMAO
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