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  #31  
Old 12-02-2016, 08:17 AM
thegabesta thegabesta is offline
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Originally Posted by Z3ta View Post
"To reiterate, it is not expected that you are an experienced economist or futurist (hence under Precept 2 [Qualification Standards] of the Code of Professional Conduct you should not do this work). The problem presented by this exercise is how to quantify these risks. Please assign arbitrary ranges to the key parameters and claim that this is defensible and defend them as an actuary does in real life. Good luck enhancing your skills at bullshitting your way through this profession."
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  #32  
Old 12-10-2016, 06:18 PM
scott.ac scott.ac is offline
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It is hard to not be a futurist when it directly asks for you to calculate values. I'm especially hung up on CEx in the bad scenario. It says hyperinflation returns, any kind of bond type investment would need a pretty crazy rate to offset hyperinflation over a long period - so much so that it effectively becomes a short term investment as the out years are almost nothing due to inflation (which brings up another point, very frustrating that it doesn't say how long the investment is for)
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  #33  
Old 12-11-2016, 11:49 AM
cowactuary cowactuary is offline
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One could argue Venezuela is that scenario right now. I think their bods yields are about 17% or something along those lines (the New York Times had an article on it about a year ago).


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It is hard to not be a futurist when it directly asks for you to calculate values. I'm especially hung up on CEx in the bad scenario. It says hyperinflation returns, any kind of bond type investment would need a pretty crazy rate to offset hyperinflation over a long period - so much so that it effectively becomes a short term investment as the out years are almost nothing due to inflation (which brings up another point, very frustrating that it doesn't say how long the investment is for)
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  #34  
Old 12-11-2016, 04:40 PM
scott.ac scott.ac is offline
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One could argue Venezuela is that scenario right now. I think their bods yields are about 17% or something along those lines (the New York Times had an article on it about a year ago).
I was looking at Latin Amerian countries with low ratings and came across Venezuela. I found an article they had 46% yield bonds and 500% inflation, so I'm assuming that meant USD denominated: http://www.wsj.com/articles/for-a-46...vefyre-comment
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  #35  
Old 12-12-2016, 10:42 AM
PassionVoid PassionVoid is offline
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Originally Posted by scott.ac View Post
It is hard to not be a futurist when it directly asks for you to calculate values. I'm especially hung up on CEx in the bad scenario. It says hyperinflation returns, any kind of bond type investment would need a pretty crazy rate to offset hyperinflation over a long period - so much so that it effectively becomes a short term investment as the out years are almost nothing due to inflation (which brings up another point, very frustrating that it doesn't say how long the investment is for)
You're overthinking this. Just pick a random number that's in the right direction in relation to the number given in the problem and give a reason why the number would move in that direction. It doesn't even have to actually be the right direction. It just has to be consistent with your explanation, which itself has to be nothing more than coherent.
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  #36  
Old 12-12-2016, 01:14 PM
Hartke Hartke is offline
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IMO, of the first 5 modules, EOM2 was the worst. EOM4 was a close 2nd (ERM propaganda module)

I had some fun with 1 and 3. Those were well written reports.
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