Actuarial Outpost October 2018 Exam STAM Thread
 User Name Remember Me? Password
 Register Blogs Wiki FAQ Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
 FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions

 Short-Term Actuarial Math Old Exam C Forum

 Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
#51
08-15-2018, 05:51 PM
 A Pimp Named Slickback Member Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 244

Okay I think I get it, they skipped a step
#52
08-15-2018, 06:13 PM
 A Pimp Named Slickback Member Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 244

Minor nitpick, should I round link ratios to three digits or use six when calculating reserves? I got a near .608 difference in what I calculated in reserves, I'm guessing (hoping) the exam won't have answers close enough to matter
#53
08-15-2018, 08:43 PM
 Abraham Weishaus Member SOA AAA Join Date: Oct 2001 Posts: 7,243

Quote:
 Originally Posted by A Pimp Named Slickback Okay I think I get it, they skipped a step
The projected total payment is Paid-Through-Current-Year * Link-Ratio, and the reserve is Projected-Total-Payment minus Paid-Through-Current-Year = Paid-Through-Current-Year * Link-Ratio minus Paid-Through-Current-Year = Paid-Through-Current-Year * (Link-Ratio - 1).
#54
08-17-2018, 03:01 PM
 rse41 Member Non-Actuary Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: NJ Studying for C Favorite beer: Heineken Posts: 270

I was working on 17.2 in ASM STAM manual, and I found that the expected value of the limited distribution formula provided on the SOAs exam tables (A.5.1.4) gets me the wrong answer. If I use first principles to solve for what I think the expected value of the limited distribution (assuming k=1), I get that the second term should have an alpha in the numerator - this is consistent with the solution to 17.2.

Is the formula for the expected value of the limited distribution under A.5.1.4 of the exam tables wrong?
__________________
P FM MFE MLC C
#55
08-17-2018, 03:51 PM
 Jim Daniel Member SOA Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Davis, CA College: Wabash College B.A. 1962, Stanford Ph.D. 1965 Posts: 2,720

Quote:
 Originally Posted by rse41 I was working on 17.2 in ASM STAM manual, and I found that the expected value of the limited distribution formula provided on the SOAs exam tables (A.5.1.4) gets me the wrong answer. If I use first principles to solve for what I think the expected value of the limited distribution (assuming k=1), I get that the second term should have an alpha in the numerator - this is consistent with the solution to 17.2. Is the formula for the expected value of the limited distribution under A.5.1.4 of the exam tables wrong?
No.
__________________
Jim Daniel
Jim Daniel's Actuarial Seminars
www.actuarialseminars.com
jimdaniel@actuarialseminars.com
#56
08-17-2018, 04:38 PM
 Abraham Weishaus Member SOA AAA Join Date: Oct 2001 Posts: 7,243

Quote:
 Originally Posted by rse41 I was working on 17.2 in ASM STAM manual, and I found that the expected value of the limited distribution formula provided on the SOAs exam tables (A.5.1.4) gets me the wrong answer. If I use first principles to solve for what I think the expected value of the limited distribution (assuming k=1), I get that the second term should have an alpha in the numerator - this is consistent with the solution to 17.2. Is the formula for the expected value of the limited distribution under A.5.1.4 of the exam tables wrong?
How were you able to use those formulas? E[X^100000]-E[X^10000] is the expected value of the part of any claim that's between 10000 and 100000. That's not what the question is asking for, nor does dividing by Pr(10000<x<100000) get you what the question is asking for either. (In fact it doesn't get you anything meaningful.)
#57
09-10-2018, 09:43 PM
 RockOn Member SOA Join Date: Dec 2013 Studying for Exam C Favorite beer: Polygamy Porter Posts: 83

Question on Exercise 9.1 in the ASM STAM manual.

The answer states that Incurred losses of \$45,000 are all in Policy Year 2.
I'm confused why that would be since the loss occurred in Policy Year 1 and it was reported in Policy year 1 as well?

I didn't understand the explanation in the manual.
Thank you!
__________________
EXAMS: P | FM | MFE | MLC | STAM | PA |
VEE: ECON | STATS | CORP FINANCE |
FAP: MOD 1| MOD 2| MOD 3| MOD 4| MOD 5| IA| MOD 6| MOD 7| MOD 8| FA |
#58
09-10-2018, 10:28 PM
 RockOn Member SOA Join Date: Dec 2013 Studying for Exam C Favorite beer: Polygamy Porter Posts: 83

Hello, I have a question on Exercise 9.3 from the ASM manual.

The policies are six month policies and the rates are effective for two years. The question is asking for number of years of trend.

Why is the Average accident date for policies sold in the two year period is stated to be 3 months after the midpoint of the two year period.

Can someone explain how this is calculated?

Thank you!
__________________
EXAMS: P | FM | MFE | MLC | STAM | PA |
VEE: ECON | STATS | CORP FINANCE |
FAP: MOD 1| MOD 2| MOD 3| MOD 4| MOD 5| IA| MOD 6| MOD 7| MOD 8| FA |
#59
09-10-2018, 11:05 PM
 Ginerv30 SOA Join Date: Jun 2013 College: Florida State University Posts: 15

1) The problem is telling you that rates are effective for 2 years.

The assumption is that the average policy is sold at the midpoint of the two years, therefore sold at the 1 year mark.

2) The next assumption is that the average accident occurs in the middle of the policy period, which in this case is 6/2 = 3 month mark.

Therefore your average accident is at the 1 year and 3 month mark.

You have to take into consideration when the average policy is sold and when the average accident occurs.
__________________
P FM MFE STAM LTAM
#60
09-10-2018, 11:16 PM
 Ginerv30 SOA Join Date: Jun 2013 College: Florida State University Posts: 15

You need to read that problem again. The problem says "A loss on a policy issued on 3/10/CY2 occurs on 12/15/CY2". That accident/ loss is associated with PY2.

[
QUOTE=RockOn;9425123]Question on Exercise 9.1 in the ASM STAM manual.

The answer states that Incurred losses of \$45,000 are all in Policy Year 2.
I'm confused why that would be since the loss occurred in Policy Year 1 and it was reported in Policy year 1 as well?

I didn't understand the explanation in the manual.
Thank you![/quote]
__________________
P FM MFE STAM LTAM

 Thread Tools Search this Thread Search this Thread: Advanced Search Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:09 PM.

 -- Default Style - Fluid Width ---- Default Style - Fixed Width ---- Old Default Style ---- Easy on the eyes ---- Smooth Darkness ---- Chestnut ---- Apple-ish Style ---- If Apples were blue ---- If Apples were green ---- If Apples were purple ---- Halloween 2007 ---- B&W ---- Halloween ---- AO Christmas Theme ---- Turkey Day Theme ---- AO 2007 beta ---- 4th Of July Contact Us - Actuarial Outpost - Archive - Privacy Statement - Top