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 Bridge Sub-Forums: Frequency and Severity

#1
11-16-2019, 11:54 AM
 Steve White Site Supporter Site Supporter Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 3,789
2020 MSC

Let's get a strong start in the new contest. Deadline Dec 10, 2019, 9 AM eastern.
#2
11-17-2019, 07:56 AM
 Sweet Tooth Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,506
Jan 2020

Lets get the party started.
Spoiler:

Your Solutions for the January 2020 Contest
-------------------
PROBLEM A: Double
PROBLEM B: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM C: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM D: 1 Notrump
PROBLEM E: (b1)
PROBLEM F: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM G: 2 Diamonds
PROBLEM H: Diamond Ace
#3
11-18-2019, 09:25 AM
 Steve White Site Supporter Site Supporter Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 3,789

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Steve White We made 9th place on the 2019 yearly honor roll with 8260. First place was 8420 (2-way tie). Sweet Tooth and Numbers Nerd also made the yearly honor roll. ETA: Those are posted results, but they are noted as UNOFFICIAL.
Can we do better in 2020?

Last edited by Steve White; 11-18-2019 at 09:28 AM..
#4
11-18-2019, 09:02 PM
 Sweet Tooth Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,506
2019 statistics

Some interesting statistics fr 2019 MSQ.

The Kleinman scoring in December set was harshest of the year, even for the experts who are mildly protected. Averages of 649 and 541 were lowest of year and std devs of 68 and 85 were the highest. Honor Roll minimum was also lowest at 660. The Kleinman scoring in June was similarly low, though not quite as extreme.

If we try to develop a more standardized metric comparing Expert to Solver, we could try 800-Expert as degree of expert error and 800-Solver as degree of Solver error, broad averages of course, and with several parameters f subjectivity. The annualized average of monthly (800-Expert)/(800-Solver) is about 8/13 and the correlation of monthly scores, measuring monthly difficulty levels, E vs S is about 77%. If you are looking for that elusive 800, this might provide a probabilistic model.

Of course, this is just for a specialized type of quiz and excludes cardplay (sans H), but numbers are there for analysis.

I leave it to you to make your own conclusions.
#5
12-01-2019, 08:25 PM
 Steve White Site Supporter Site Supporter Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 3,789

I thought I had posted the problems, but apparently not. Sweet Tooth must have gotten them from the Bridge World site. Here they are
Attached Images
 mscproblemset202001.pdf (131.8 KB, 48 views)
#6
12-01-2019, 08:48 PM
 Steve White Site Supporter Site Supporter Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 3,789

A. Not a good way to start off a new year. I'm not going to overcall 1NT with only Jxx in spades, so it's 2D, or double, or pass. Double is not horrendous, but I'll try pass.
B. Not comfortable here, either, but I'll bid 3H. Second choice 3NT.
C. Will we ever get an easy one? Maybe this is an easy one. It's not great for 3H, but I don't see any alternative bid as close to as good as 3H.
D. 1NT.
E. 1D, then 3D. Or maybe open 2NT.
F. Double. Better hearts and better diamonds than he will expect, but at least he will know about both red suits.
G. 2NT. It's this or 2D, and it's matchpoints.
H. DA. Nothing is safe. This is safest.
#7
12-02-2019, 02:00 PM
 Sweet Tooth Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,506

I looked at the problems again and I'm sure I blew one, i.e. had a "brain-fart".
A) is OK, I chose Double originally because of use of Equal level conversion. Know that BWS doesn't use it, but I'll try it anyway.

C) I blew this one. Looking at it again, it seems 4D is obvious, possibly 4H for handhogs, but I must have devalued the great spades and bid 3H?? Where did that come from, not a clue. But it's in and not changing anything.

D) I chose 1NT- likely an outlier with 2C, 1S, xx and Pass being preferred?

F) I'm sticking with Fit showing Jump of 3H, even if I get a zero. Prinmary support, 10 cards in 2 suits, unwilling to sell out below 4 level, so 3H it is.
#8
12-03-2019, 09:47 AM
 Steve White Site Supporter Site Supporter Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 3,789

Code:
```                   A     B     C     D         E     F     G     H
procrastinator
oirg
SW                 P    3H    3H    1N     1D;3D   Dbl    2N    DA
Klaymen
ST               Dbl    3N   3H*    1N     1D;2H    3H    2D    DA
BTDT
NN
bill18

3H*  3H was ST's original choice; now prefers 4D.  But (I think) wants to be scored here for 3H.```
Only two votes so far, so we couldn't have a consensus. We have agreement of the two voters, considering Sweet Tooth's current choices, only on two.

Deadline is Dec 10 9AM eastern time, but I will be in Pacific time, so I will submit evening of Dec 9, or possibly earlier if we have reached agreement.
#9
12-03-2019, 10:12 AM
 Klaymen Member CAS Join Date: Oct 2001 Posts: 20,472

A. 2
B. 3NT
C. 2
D. 1NT
E. 1; 2NT (b2)
F. 2 expecting another turn to raise diamonds up to 5 or hearts to 4.
G. 2NT
__________________

#10
12-03-2019, 11:49 PM
 procrastinator Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Cali College: third time is a charm Favorite beer: Dogfish Posts: 2,042

A. 2D.
B. 3NT
C. 3H (Yuck)
D. 1S
E. b1. Protected because if pd has 4+ hearts, she also has 5+ spades
F. 3H -believe this to be fit-showing in BWS, see VI - C - (c)
G. 1NT.
H. Ace of diamonds
__________________
This space is intentionally left blank.

Last edited by procrastinator; 12-03-2019 at 11:56 PM.. Reason: Changed vote on F after reading BWS