Actuarial Outpost Variance
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 View Poll Results: Which represents variance? Variance = E[(X-E[X])^2] = E[X^2] - E[X]^2 62 59.62% Variance = Amount this month - Amount last month 5 4.81% Both of the above 29 27.88% Variance = E[42] 8 7.69% Voters: 104. You may not vote on this poll

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#41
12-28-2016, 09:37 PM
 Colymbosathon ecplecticos Member Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 5,664

Quote:
 Originally Posted by snakeroberts grrr there are many models of set theory. Model theorists tend to be open minded (see skolem paradox)
Yes, there are countable models of the real numbers. Why does this bother you? True, in those models you can show that the reals themselves are uncountable, but so what? Perhaps you aren't comfortable with the notion of a model.
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#42
12-29-2016, 12:30 PM
 NormalDan Member CAS Join Date: Dec 2016 Location: NJ Posts: 383

Quote:
 Originally Posted by lifeact91 I used the term "variance" to describe volatility in claim results once, using the E[X^2] - E[X]^2 definition. I was just starting out in my job, and I didn't realize that all of management thought of "variance" as "Amount this quarter - Amount last quarter". Much confusion was had by all.
In fairness I much prefer to use standard deviation when giving a sense of volatility since the absolute number is more directly meaningful.
#43
12-29-2016, 12:39 PM
 JMO Carol Marler Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Back home again in Indiana Studying for Nothing actuarial. Posts: 34,984

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NormalDan In fairness I much prefer to use standard deviation when giving a sense of volatility since the absolute number is more directly meaningful.
That's what I was thinking. Only the people building models really care about statistical variance.
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Carol Marler, "Just My Opinion"

Pluto is no longer a planet and I am no longer an actuary. Please take my opinions as non-actuarial.

My latest favorite quotes, updated Jan 13, 2017.

Spoiler:
I should keep these two permanently.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by rekrap JMO is right
Quote:
 Originally Posted by campbell I agree with JMO.
MORE:
All round good advice:
Quote:
 Originally Posted by snikelfritz Don't live your life by other people's expectations.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dr T Non-Fan If you feel you have to lie, then you're don't have enough integrity to be an actuary.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Westley "It seems" isn't really compelling for me.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by JohnLocke The danger is in mistaking the stereotypes for reality itself and not simplifications of reality.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Maine-iac Your general claims settlement rule of thumb is that arson is not covered. Stupidity is.
#44
12-29-2016, 12:43 PM
 JMO Carol Marler Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Back home again in Indiana Studying for Nothing actuarial. Posts: 34,984

Quote:
 Originally Posted by JMO I feel like the meaning is slightly different.
My comment about minds not changing was implicitly referring to the topic under discussion. Of course I didn't mean they would never change, just that continuing to argue would not increase the likelihood of change. By contrast, saying that minds are invariant seems to say they don't change on any topic.

But I still like the idea of some invariant measure of people's minds. That aspect will continue to interest me, even if not related to this thread topic.
__________________
Carol Marler, "Just My Opinion"

Pluto is no longer a planet and I am no longer an actuary. Please take my opinions as non-actuarial.

My latest favorite quotes, updated Jan 13, 2017.

Spoiler:
I should keep these two permanently.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by rekrap JMO is right
Quote:
 Originally Posted by campbell I agree with JMO.
MORE:
All round good advice:
Quote:
 Originally Posted by snikelfritz Don't live your life by other people's expectations.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dr T Non-Fan If you feel you have to lie, then you're don't have enough integrity to be an actuary.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Westley "It seems" isn't really compelling for me.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by JohnLocke The danger is in mistaking the stereotypes for reality itself and not simplifications of reality.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Maine-iac Your general claims settlement rule of thumb is that arson is not covered. Stupidity is.
#45
12-29-2016, 04:53 PM
 lifeact91 Member SOA Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 30

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NormalDan In fairness I much prefer to use standard deviation when giving a sense of volatility since the absolute number is more directly meaningful.
That's true. I was young, dumb, and full of textbook learnin'.
#46
01-11-2017, 02:38 PM
 snakeroberts Member Join Date: Jul 2016 College: k Posts: 206

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Colymbosathon ecplecticos Yes, there are countable models of the real numbers. Why does this bother you? True, in those models you can show that the reals themselves are uncountable, but so what? Perhaps you aren't comfortable with the notion of a model.

I just got around to reading this.
I posted this as a joke. I dont know how you read "arent comfortable" into what I wrote. Perhaps your not comfortable regarding Human emotion.

In addition I dont need your validation or lack thereof regarding my knowledge of "model theory" thank you very much. Please continue making your snarky comments in the exam section so you can feel superior.
#47
01-12-2017, 08:52 PM
 Kanye West Member Join Date: Jul 2013 College: American Academy of Art - Dropout Posts: 705

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MightySchoop This.

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