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Short-Term Actuarial Math Old Exam C Forum

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  #31  
Old 12-09-2019, 11:22 AM
whatdoactuariesevendo whatdoactuariesevendo is offline
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Maybe I'm crazy, but the non-parametric seemed the easiest to me, but maybe because it followed a few other sections of similar stuff and I'm getting the ideas down in my head now. Just data, no integrating, and I got all 10 practice questions right. I'm also going to try and power through Semi-parametric and the Summary section today, and that will put me back on schedule.
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  #32  
Old 12-10-2019, 10:22 PM
tcnjmathmajor97 tcnjmathmajor97 is offline
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Yeah, I thought the empirical Bayes was pretty easy especially considering CA rated it 5/5 in terms of difficulty. I got through section 4.1 yesterday (the different types of insurance coverages, very qualitative) and section 4.2 today (loss reserving) which was pretty straightforward. My goal is to wrap up all of the material by next Friday 12/20 which will give me 50 days for practice problems and review.
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  #33  
Old 12-10-2019, 10:24 PM
tcnjmathmajor97 tcnjmathmajor97 is offline
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I have PTO at work the week of 12/23 and 12/30 so I'm hoping to get in a practice exam each day while I have the time (excluding Christmas Eve/Day, New Years Eve/Day, and my birthday lol).
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  #34  
Old 12-11-2019, 03:17 PM
whatdoactuariesevendo whatdoactuariesevendo is offline
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I'm aiming for my first practice exam on 12/25. I usually take an exam one day, then review it the next. I go from there as to take another exam or another review day. My goal is at least 6 full, timed, practice exams. Do you think that is enough? Unfortunately out of pto, so I'm burning the midnight/weekend oil for this.
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  #35  
Old 12-11-2019, 06:04 PM
tcnjmathmajor97 tcnjmathmajor97 is offline
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I think that should be sufficient and then you can always add in more if needed.

I didn't do too great on my loss reserving quiz today (sections 4.2 and 4.3) and I found the latter section with the frequency/severity reserving particularly confusing. Oh well, moving on to 4.4 ratemaking tomorrow and hopefully I'll improve at reserving as I practice.
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  #36  
Old 12-12-2019, 06:43 PM
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Could someone explain to me what pi(theta) is in the Bayesian credibility? I'm using the ASM manual and it is saying that it is the prior density which isn't really clicking for me. for example on page 757, example 42B, I don't understand where the pi(theta) = 1/3 is coming from but I understand that the model density is based off the single pareto density function.
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  #37  
Old 12-13-2019, 07:04 PM
whatdoactuariesevendo whatdoactuariesevendo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmac View Post
Could someone explain to me what pi(theta) is in the Bayesian credibility? I'm using the ASM manual and it is saying that it is the prior density which isn't really clicking for me. for example on page 757, example 42B, I don't understand where the pi(theta) = 1/3 is coming from but I understand that the model density is based off the single pareto density function.
If you could post the actual problem, I could try to help more, as I don't have the printed manual or see that example. pi(theta) is the density function of the prior distribution, so I guess they are plugging some values into the single pareto density function to get 1/3, but it seems like there is more to it than what you posted.
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  #38  
Old 12-13-2019, 07:07 PM
whatdoactuariesevendo whatdoactuariesevendo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tcnjmathmajor97 View Post
I think that should be sufficient and then you can always add in more if needed.

I didn't do too great on my loss reserving quiz today (sections 4.2 and 4.3) and I found the latter section with the frequency/severity reserving particularly confusing. Oh well, moving on to 4.4 ratemaking tomorrow and hopefully I'll improve at reserving as I practice.
It seems like these sections should be easy, but the wording of questions and many ways to say the same thing is definitely confusing. Also, soooo many calculations that are way too easy for me to mess up in the calculator and keep track without wasting time writing everything down. Even using the storage keys really doesn't save that much time. I'm stuck on level 3's, getting like half of them right using notes.

I'm going to do more practice tomorrow and try to finish all of 4.4 on sunday.
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  #39  
Old 12-14-2019, 04:35 PM
tcnjmathmajor97 tcnjmathmajor97 is offline
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I finished 4.4 today and thought it was okay for the most part but the parallelogram method is tedious. Iím going to do a quiz on this material tomorrow and then start 4.5 Monday.
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  #40  
Old 12-14-2019, 10:51 PM
whatdoactuariesevendo whatdoactuariesevendo is offline
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section 4.3 is killing me, and it seems like most problems are level 6-7, not many under 5 to even practice on.
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