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#11




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You got a new error after squaring the triangle. That suggests the former error in fact was due to the triangle being the wrong shape (a trapezoid). I suspect the new error is from having zeroes for the effective months in 2018  particularly having 0 for both development months 1 and 2 for 2018/1 as this probably causes a 0/0 division by 0 error. Just a guess. 
#12




Dear All,
I figure out the problem. It seems that we can ignore period 1 and 2 because the last effective month is Dec 2017, so we can remove them. We just need to consider period 3 as 1 and use cumulative triangle first and directly run MackChainLadder. Finally, it works and the LDF are the same as the correct one. And we add original period 1 and 2 back. Tansforming back to incremental. Problem solved!!! I think this is the way for others to figure out when they meet in the future. Thanks all again. Appreciate. But I think MackChainLadder is just a quick way to forecast. There are still other better ways. Last edited by Peter T.W. Chen; 04122018 at 10:06 PM.. 
#13




Quote:
Last edited by Marcie; 04122018 at 11:54 PM.. 
Tags 
chainladder, mackchainladder, rstudio, triangle 
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