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#493




Hi, Anybody having issue accessing the SOA elearning modules for PA exam. Somehow, it keeps clocking for me. Having this issue from 3 days now.
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#494




I got it resolved through SOA help desk.
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VEE 
#495




M6, end of module question
1. When the answer writer for Rmd 6.8 is trying to figureout which variables to get rid of, and they aren't purely looking at the AIC (for convergence reasons), then they are taking out variables with high pvalues. But a couple of times (like leadingup to Chunk #18), they take out SAGE instead of AGE, even though AGE has a higher pvalue. Running Chunks 18, (19), and 20 yields a final model with AGE having pvalue of 0.398 and the rmse = 764k, but if you change the AGE to SAGE instead, then the pvalue of SAGE is 0.121 in the model and the rmse = 742k (which seems to imply a better model).
And the answer writer is not a priori convinced of never taking AGE out of the model, because just before Chunk #13, they try taking out AGE; but as it happens, the process doesn't converge and so they endup including AGE. 2. I had assumed that one would never settle on a model where any of the betas has a pvalue greater than 0.05 (aside from when two variables need each other as in the MARSTAT with AGEDiff), but the writer does keep high pvalue betas. Like NUMHH in the results from Chungus #18 is at 0.382, which means that the beta for NUMHH could easily be negative instead of positive. And given that the objective of this end of module 6 example is to "assist marketing in identifying important factors", telling marketing that there's a positive beta when it could be negative is not helpful.
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Last edited by pyramidos; 04052019 at 10:31 AM.. 
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