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  #5731  
Old 09-05-2018, 11:00 AM
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  #5732  
Old 09-13-2018, 11:18 PM
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So it sounds like Joe Maddon did a really dumb thing today.
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  #5733  
Old 10-01-2018, 11:08 PM
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Such a disappointment...Saying that, we have Cubs postseason tickets for sale.

Wildcard game tomorrow (10/2). We are selling our pair at cost ($91 per), Section 304 row 12, Seats 5 & 6.

Ping me if interested.
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You successfully played "just the tip?" Ive always ended up losing
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  #5734  
Old 10-05-2018, 03:23 PM
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I'm still processing our early postseason exit...it just shouldn't have been that quick, but it was.

I "blame" a large part on the wildcard loss on Joe Maddon:

I just don't get the constant line shuffling coupled with putting players in the lineup but not maximizing their skill set. Bote starts, Zobrist leads off and not Almora, and bases are loaded when Maddon chooses Heyward over Schwarber.
2018 Stats

Bote Starts: Yes I understand that he won a few games but slashed .239/.319/.408. He is not an average player, or an everyday player, and yet he starts in the postseason.
If Maddon really felt he needed another right handed hitter, why not work the lineup to start Happ, who slashed .233/.353/.408.

Next is who leads off?

vs. LHP:
Player A: 123 PA, .333/.381/.407
Player B: 144 PA, .295/.340/.402

vs. RHP
Player A: 332 PA, .295/.377/.452
Player B: 335 PA, .282/.315/.369

As Leadoff
Player A: 140 PA, .285/.371/.439
Player B: 213 PA, .333/.368/.429

This is more to this than simply looking at who is better against the lefties. Player B (Almora) thrived as a leadoff hitter. 45% of his PA were as leadoff and he did awesome, potentially one of the best stat lines leading off in the MLB this year. If you look at his stats elsewhere in the lineup, nothing comes close. Player A (Zobrist) whose leadoff stats are good this year, was best hitting 2nd with a .341/.396/.512 in 91 PA.

Lastly, the pinch hit with bases loaded. This is purely hindsight, and the pitch that Heward K'd on was nasty. I personally would have liked Heyward to come in after we scored in the 8th, and sub out our speedster. Gore's AB were simply BAD.

Well...there's always next year.
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  #5735  
Old 10-05-2018, 04:26 PM
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I agree with a lot of that. I don't get why he went Heyward over Schwarber with the bases loaded against RHP.

The Bote thing was just "get as many RH hitters in the lineup as we can against the lefty" thing. Schwarber is not good vs LHP. Heyward was mediocre. Bote was really good albeit a small sample size (130ish wRC+ in like 65PAs). He had been doing Bote 3B/Bryant LF often in the last few weeks against LHP. Bote might not be an everyday guy, but is probably a pretty good option to start vs LHB and bench bat going forward.

That last Gore AB was terrible, but the Bryant AB to end the inning before was worse. You have Terrance Gore hitting behind you with two outs and the bases empty. You're essentially hitting in front of a pitcher. They aren't giving you anything to hit. Sure enough, three straight balls but he swung at two of them, gets down in a 1-2 count, and ends up looking when they painted the corner. It never should have gotten to that point to begin with.

In the offseason, the Cubs badly needed a bat this year. They have the money and should open up the books. Make a run at Harper or another of the top bats. Good chance Russell isn't coming back so they'll need MIF help, probably someone who can handle SS somewhat so you aren't relying totally on Baez. Something solid but unsexy like a Jose Iglesias or Lemahieu. Smyly is signed and back from TJS, and there's $20M team option on Hamels so there shouldn't be much need need to look much in free agency for SP. A couple bullpen adds and let 'er rip.

Last edited by Mr F; 10-05-2018 at 04:30 PM..
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  #5736  
Old 10-30-2018, 11:07 PM
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Lemahieu was a Cubs before we threw him into a trade with the Rockies a few years back, however I don't think he can handle SS. Iglesias' glove is legit. Resign Murphy for relief at 2B?

I do not think we should go after Harper, he is a whiney bitch who pulls the clubhouse "apart" as so much is focused on what Bryce does. I don't care that he knows Bryant from growing up, he will not change. Plus, he will jam up the OF even more than it is.

If we sign Harper, who do we trade? We have Heyward (average bat, plus glove, Almora (should be every day), Bryant (he ain't going anywhere), Zobrist (on the outs), Happ, Schwarber...throw in Harper, then someone (or more) needs to go.

Obviously not sexy, but maybe we consider the following:

Zach Short - good OBP guy that just finished AA with 17 HR and slashed .227/.356/.417
Mark Zagunis - OF prospect who slashed .272/.395/.375, but only 7 HR, so this guy is probably an occasional start/bench guy
Jason Vosler - AAA 3B (who I assume can also play LF) who slashed .251/.330/.467 with 23 HR

Sure wish we had Eloy as he would/could be our OF bat you are looking for.
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  #5737  
Old 10-31-2018, 12:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trondogss View Post
Lemahieu was a Cubs before we threw him into a trade with the Rockies a few years back, however I don't think he can handle SS. Iglesias' glove is legit. Resign Murphy for relief at 2B?
Would much rather go for someone that can play SS, so you aren't screwed if Baez gets hurt (assuming Russell is gone). Nico Hoerner did well with good reviews in his start, so you might not need a long-term option if he turns into a guy.

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Originally Posted by trondogss View Post
LI do not think we should go after Harper, he is a whiney bitch who pulls the clubhouse "apart" as so much is focused on what Bryce does. I don't care that he knows Bryant from growing up, he will not change. Plus, he will jam up the OF even more than it is.
Most of this is likely untrue outside of some talking heads and a random "unnamed NL executive." He does have an attitude and rubs opposing fans the wrong way. I'll take me some of that attitude.

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Originally Posted by trondogss View Post
If we sign Harper, who do we trade? We have Heyward (average bat, plus glove, Almora (should be every day), Bryant (he ain't going anywhere), Zobrist (on the outs), Happ, Schwarber...throw in Harper, then someone (or more) needs to go.
Heyward is much better vs RHP than Almora (though Heyward was actually pretty even on platoon splits this year). Almora is much better than LHP than Heyward. They platoon in CF.

Schwarber is bad vs LHP and should not play against them.

Bryant is a 3B. Bote is a bench bat, or a platoon option vs LHP.

Zobrist is gone after 2019 and should not be a consideration long term. He or Bryant gets LF vs LHP and he gets some starts at 2B.

I'm fine with Happ being trade bait, or bench guy who gets more time in case of injury

vs RHP: Schwarber LF, Heyward CF, Harper RF, Bryant 3B
vs LHP: Zobrist/Bryant LF, Almora CF, Harper RF, Bryant/Bote 3B

Assume someone is hurt at any given time, and it becomes much less log-jammed. With a SS signing you have options to slide into SS and 2B in case of injury. Bote is there if Bryant gets hurt. Bryant or Caratini play 1B if Rizzo goes down.

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Originally Posted by trondogss View Post
Zach Short - good OBP guy that just finished AA with 17 HR and slashed .227/.356/.417
Mark Zagunis - OF prospect who slashed .272/.395/.375, but only 7 HR, so this guy is probably an occasional start/bench guy
Jason Vosler - AAA 3B (who I assume can also play LF) who slashed .251/.330/.467 with 23 HR
- Deep emergency SS option who probably isn't ready yet.
- Bench/org guy.
- 31% K rate as 25 yo in AAA. AAAA/Org guy.

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Sure wish we had Eloy as he would/could be our OF bat you are looking for.
Yup.
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  #5738  
Old 11-01-2018, 02:02 PM
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Heyward is much better vs RHP than Almora (though Heyward was actually pretty even on platoon splits this year). Almora is much better than LHP than Heyward. They platoon in CF.
Definitely IMO, but Almora is not and should not be a platoon guy. He was one of the best leadoff guys in the league last year.

Almora (age 24):
vs RHP: .282/.315/.369/.684, 335 PA
vs LHP: .295/.340/.402/.742, 144 PA
Leadoff (I wish I could get RHP/LHP leadoff splits, but struck out looking): .333/.368/.429/.797, 213 PA (44.5% of his PA were at leadoff)

Heyward:
age 28 (2018 season)
vs RHP: .265/.334/.401/.735, 388 PA
vs LHP: .290/.340/.376/.716, 101 PA

age 24 (2014 season)
vs RHP: .304/.384/.436/.820, 490 PA
vs LHP: .169/.252/.225/.477, 159 PA

My gut tells me that looking at LHP/RHP splits as a leadoff guy for Almora...albeit only 200 PAs, he has more value being there every day than attempting to platoon with Heyward.

Nothing in Heyward's stat line tells me he is a platoon guy, and Almora's doesn't either. If we compare the Age 24 seasons, Almora seems more able to hand both types of pitchers although Heyward's total age 24 season was much better.

I'm not trying to argue...I just already miss baseball season.
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  #5739  
Old 11-01-2018, 02:32 PM
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re: Almora. I try not to get too cute with splits like vs RHP batting first. The handedness splits are going to be way more impactful and predictive over time imo. FWIW, he was actually pretty good vs RHP while he was batting 1st (check the Fangraphs Splits Tool and you can cut and filter it however you want), but he has a larger body of work that suggests he is pretty pedestrian vs RHP.

Heyward was pretty even vs LHP last year (though not stellar vs either LHP or RHP). His career splits are very weighted though, to the tune of about 35 points of wRC+ better vs RHP. He is a well above average career hitter vs RHP and a well below average career hitter vs LHP. When he was bad in 2016-2017, he was bad against both (though worse vs LHP), when he was good before that he was almost always significantly better vs RHP outside of one year in 2013.

Almora career wRC+ vs RHP/LHP: 85/117
Heyward career wRC+ vs RHP/LHP: 118/82

Pretty much exact mirror images of each other.

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I'm not trying to argue...I just already miss baseball season.
No arguing. Discussing! What else we going to talk about?
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  #5740  
Old 11-02-2018, 11:49 AM
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Smyly is signed and back from TJS, and there's $20M team option on Hamels so there shouldn't be much need need to look much in free agency for SP.
Hamels option exercised and Smyly traded to clear some space for luxury tax reasons.

So rotation is, Lester-Hendricks-Quintana-Darvish-Hamels (not necessarily in that order, pending on injuries).
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