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  #801  
Old 02-11-2019, 05:27 PM
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A lot of these reserving methods are arbitrary. You are just memorizing the order of steps for so many different types of methods in the Exam 7 syllabus.
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  #802  
Old 02-11-2019, 05:32 PM
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A lot of these reserving methods are arbitrary. You are just memorizing the order of steps for so many different types of methods in the Exam 7 syllabus.
Ah, so kind of like Robbin for exam 9. Fair enough, though this still feels like there could be a theoritical justification one way or the other.
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  #803  
Old 02-11-2019, 08:12 PM
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A lot of these reserving methods are arbitrary. You are just memorizing the order of steps for so many different types of methods in the Exam 7 syllabus.
that's like saying all of predictive modeling is arbitrary. any of these models could be useful in the right context, or combined with each other to be useful given that certain assumptions are met.
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Old 02-11-2019, 09:04 PM
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ASM does not have a discussion of stimulation, but considering how boring the manual is, maybe it would be a good idea.
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  #805  
Old 02-11-2019, 09:28 PM
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that's like saying all of predictive modeling is arbitrary. any of these models could be useful in the right context, or combined with each other to be useful given that certain assumptions are met.
Sorry I didn't mean the methods themselves were arbitrary just some of the assumptions in them. Like for Clark truncation point or Robin why does one method have to use risk free rate but another has the option of using three types of rates.
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  #806  
Old 02-11-2019, 10:53 PM
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In Patrik pg. 442, he introduces the four steps involved in reinsurance loss reserving methodology. Can anyone tell me where he states what step 4 is? Last one I see is Step 3 on pg. 445.
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  #807  
Old 02-11-2019, 11:06 PM
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Are we sure there’s 4 and it’s not a typo or carryover from an old edition?
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  #808  
Old 02-11-2019, 11:08 PM
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Are we sure thereís 4 and itís not a typo or carryover from an old edition?
No we are not sure. Bayesian estimate for # of steps is 3.2.
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  #809  
Old 02-12-2019, 12:20 AM
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Is step 4 profit?
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  #810  
Old 02-12-2019, 12:37 AM
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Stp 4 is ??? And the secret step 5 is profit
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