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#981
11-08-2011, 06:24 AM
 DyalDragon Member SOA Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Here Studying for the hell of it... College: AASU Favorite beer: This one... Posts: 33,520

Traffic jams occur at a poisson rate of 1 per every 50 miles of highway. What is the probability that DD will hit 2 traffic jams in his 40 mile drive, given that he hits 1 in the first 20 miles?
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#982
11-08-2011, 07:17 AM
 alexcrewe Member SOA AAA Join Date: Feb 2011 Location: The not-quite-Po' Studying for ... ummm ... oh yeah! College: CSULB alumni Favorite beer: Caffrey's, which can be found in Canada Posts: 474

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DyalDragon Traffic jams occur at a poisson rate of 1 per every 50 miles of highway. What is the probability that DD will hit 2 traffic jams in his 40 mile drive, given that he hits 1 in the first 20 miles?
Let's see ... divide by 50 ... carry the 2 ... E[X^2] ... move that over there ... and done!
I get 275%. Wait? You mean that's not one of the answer choices? Not even close? Stupid dinosaurs. Can't you just eat your scientists in peace?
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Exam Record
B: Mar 2011
D: Aug 2013
Carry on.
#983
11-08-2011, 07:30 AM
 WhatsGolden Member SOA Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 762

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DyalDragon Traffic jams occur at a poisson rate of 1 per every 50 miles of highway. What is the probability that DD will hit 2 traffic jams in his 40 mile drive, given that he hits 1 in the first 20 miles?
Based on the wording, I believe the SOA created this question. It does not state whether it is exactly 2 or at least 2. If the SOA has a question worded like this on the exam
#984
11-08-2011, 07:58 AM
 DyalDragon Member SOA Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Here Studying for the hell of it... College: AASU Favorite beer: This one... Posts: 33,520

Quote:
 Originally Posted by alexcrewe Let's see ... divide by 50 ... carry the 2 ... E[X^2] ... move that over there ... and done! I get 275%. Wait? You mean that's not one of the answer choices? Not even close? Stupid dinosaurs. Can't you just eat your scientists in peace?
Turns out it was a double decrement model... Traffic & school buses
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#985
11-08-2011, 08:03 AM
 chopsticks Member SOA AAA Join Date: Jan 2009 Studying for NOTHING! Posts: 317

Less than 30 minutes for those of us on the East Coast... Good luck everyone!