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  #981  
Old 11-08-2011, 06:24 AM
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DyalDragon DyalDragon is offline
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Traffic jams occur at a poisson rate of 1 per every 50 miles of highway. What is the probability that DD will hit 2 traffic jams in his 40 mile drive, given that he hits 1 in the first 20 miles?
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  #982  
Old 11-08-2011, 07:17 AM
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Originally Posted by DyalDragon View Post
Traffic jams occur at a poisson rate of 1 per every 50 miles of highway. What is the probability that DD will hit 2 traffic jams in his 40 mile drive, given that he hits 1 in the first 20 miles?
Let's see ... divide by 50 ... carry the 2 ... E[X^2] ... move that over there ... and done!
I get 275%. Wait? You mean that's not one of the answer choices? Not even close? Stupid dinosaurs. Can't you just eat your scientists in peace?
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  #983  
Old 11-08-2011, 07:30 AM
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Originally Posted by DyalDragon View Post
Traffic jams occur at a poisson rate of 1 per every 50 miles of highway. What is the probability that DD will hit 2 traffic jams in his 40 mile drive, given that he hits 1 in the first 20 miles?
Based on the wording, I believe the SOA created this question. It does not state whether it is exactly 2 or at least 2. If the SOA has a question worded like this on the exam
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  #984  
Old 11-08-2011, 07:58 AM
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Originally Posted by alexcrewe View Post
Let's see ... divide by 50 ... carry the 2 ... E[X^2] ... move that over there ... and done!
I get 275%. Wait? You mean that's not one of the answer choices? Not even close? Stupid dinosaurs. Can't you just eat your scientists in peace?
Turns out it was a double decrement model... Traffic & school buses
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  #985  
Old 11-08-2011, 08:03 AM
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Less than 30 minutes for those of us on the East Coast... Good luck everyone!
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