Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Exams - Please Limit Discussion to Exam-Related Topics > SoA > Group and Health Track > Pricing, Reserving & Forecasting
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions

DW Simpson
Actuarial Jobs

Visit our site for the most up to date jobs for actuaries.

Actuarial Salary Surveys
Property & Casualty, Health, Life, Pension and Non-Tradtional Jobs.

Actuarial Meeting Schedule
Browse this year's meetings and which recruiters will attend.

Contact DW Simpson
Have a question?
Let's talk.
You'll be glad you did.


Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #31  
Old 05-24-2010, 05:22 PM
maram1 maram1 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 367
Default

Hi,

I am currently working on this module on the reserving part. I get the CF method as the lowest, not the IC method (as I've seen others post on here). I am pretty sure of my work, I've double checked. Has anyone here also gotten CF as lowest of the three? Thank you
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 05-30-2010, 01:31 PM
Chief Petosky's Avatar
Chief Petosky Chief Petosky is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Location: Location
Favorite beer: BBC Bourbon Stout
Posts: 20,310
Default

Yes, using both 2004 and 2005 experience (which I did as my main way) --- IC>BF>CF. Using only 2005, my results are reveresed (with larger differences).
__________________
You move me, you move me, With your buildings and your eyes; autumn woods and winter skies
You move me, you move me. Open sea and city lights, busy streets and dizzy heights
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 12-06-2012, 07:10 PM
Tireburner10's Avatar
Tireburner10 Tireburner10 is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Favorite beer: Left Hand Nitro Milk Stout
Posts: 191
Default

Don't know if anyone is working on this part right now, so I figured I'd give it a shot.

Module assignment says the avg of the 3 methods should get you an IBNR estimate of $2.4m for runout of claims in 2010 that occured in 2011. Using an 11% trend (consistent with Task 2, haven't gotten to Task 3 yet), I'm getting an avg of $2,106,909 for the 3 methods, with actual runout of $2,027,117. I've copied all the appropriate tabs and double checked formulas. For the trend, I'm also only going back 6 months for the experience period like the case study did.

Anyone else?
__________________
Work to live, don't live to work. Also, http://blog.jalopnik.com/

ASA FHE Mod HF Mod, PRF Mod, DP-GH GH-Advanced, DMAC, FAC
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 12-26-2012, 06:20 PM
OTA OTA is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 70
Default

Since the instructions in the assignment encourage us to use the examples in the module as templates (all of which have incurred dates of 2005 only), I am wondering whether it would suffice to use incurred dates for CY 2005 alone for the reserves calculations, or whether there is any additional value to including 2004 as well. Since the claims all complete within 6 months, I'm questioning whether there is much value to using 2004 incurred claims as well (and for that matter 2003 also) to develop the reserves. Any thoughts are much appreciated.
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 07-31-2013, 12:26 PM
Sir Deicide Sir Deicide is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
College: UC Santa Cruz
Posts: 330
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tireburner10 View Post
Don't know if anyone is working on this part right now, so I figured I'd give it a shot.

Module assignment says the avg of the 3 methods should get you an IBNR estimate of $2.4m for runout of claims in 2010 that occured in 2011. Using an 11% trend (consistent with Task 2, haven't gotten to Task 3 yet), I'm getting an avg of $2,106,909 for the 3 methods, with actual runout of $2,027,117. I've copied all the appropriate tabs and double checked formulas. For the trend, I'm also only going back 6 months for the experience period like the case study did.

Anyone else?
It's nice to see a posting for the current assignment.

I'm pretty sure that the $2.4M is the FY 2010 year-end reserve. Did you try to duplicate that number by calculating the reserve methods from a year earlier than the assignment?
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 08-29-2013, 12:02 PM
Meenie506 Meenie506 is offline
SOA CCA AAA
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Studying for Nothing, just waiting
College: Clemson Alum
Favorite beer: Wine
Posts: 26
Default Age/Sex Factor

Did anyone do anything with the Age/sex Factor on the Data1-elig tab? We don't have the claims by region, but we do have them by Plan, so it is possible to apply it. I'm just not sure if I'm overthinking it.
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 08-29-2013, 12:33 PM
ActuarialFun ActuarialFun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Midwest
Posts: 396
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Meenie506 View Post
Did anyone do anything with the Age/sex Factor on the Data1-elig tab? We don't have the claims by region, but we do have them by Plan, so it is possible to apply it. I'm just not sure if I'm overthinking it.
I used them to normalize the PMPM data, though it didn't have a big effect. The average factor was mostly the same throughout.
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 08-29-2013, 12:57 PM
Sir Deicide Sir Deicide is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
College: UC Santa Cruz
Posts: 330
Default

I don't think you'd want to normalize for reserve purposes. Say a historical PMPM is $250 and a demo factor is 0.85. If you normalize and use 250/0.85 = 294, then you will artificially be inflating the reserve.

The case study also did not normalize.
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 08-29-2013, 01:14 PM
ActuarialFun ActuarialFun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Midwest
Posts: 396
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir Deicide View Post
I don't think you'd want to normalize for reserve purposes. Say a historical PMPM is $250 and a demo factor is 0.85. If you normalize and use 250/0.85 = 294, then you will artificially be inflating the reserve.

The case study also did not normalize.
Sorry, I wasn't clear. I didn't normalize for the actual reserve - just to calculate the trend. Which, coincidentally, I'm still a little unclear on what number I'm going to use.
Reply With Quote
  #40  
Old 08-29-2013, 02:01 PM
Meenie506 Meenie506 is offline
SOA CCA AAA
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Studying for Nothing, just waiting
College: Clemson Alum
Favorite beer: Wine
Posts: 26
Default

I decided not to use the age/sex factor anywhere. I had the same thought process as you Sir Deicide (it's not in the case study), but the fact that they included in the data in the first place was making me second guess myself.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:33 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.23240 seconds with 9 queries