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Old 10-25-2001, 02:41 PM
Dr T Non-Fan Dr T Non-Fan is online now
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The keynote speaker was a guy from U Toronto. Some British guy from Australia who lives in Canada. (Some day he'll get to the right English-speaking country!) Can't remember his name, but it was the most entertaining session I attended. Not saying much, I admit. He's not an actuary, and he's not a boring non-actuary found in the other sales presentations, er, sessions.

His one-liner is that 2/3 of all events are shaped by the demographics. I'm beginnning to think he might be right. (Maybe 50-60%.) Seems we should start buying CBS stock, for example.
Pakistan's and Afghanistan's demo bars are troubling: while most WWII-affected nations have the basic boom-bust-echo pattern, these two countries have a bottom-heavy curve. More like a triangle, in which there are a higher percentage of people at each lower 5-year age bracket.

Anyone care to comment on this? He seemed to believe that in these cases, either the kids grow up and leave (too much competition for jobs at home), or they take over the country.
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Old 10-25-2001, 02:45 PM
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My own experience: After college, I couldn't get a job. I was born in a peak year of the boom. Four years later, during a bust-year's gradutation, armed with a Master's, I got a job.
Never thought about it, until after this guy's speech. Maybe 40% due to demographics. The other 60% was probably my accidental good looks. And two exams. And MS degree.
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Old 10-25-2001, 03:30 PM
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any nation with a large % of young men tends to be unstable or revolutionary. I have seen an analysis of this somewhere.

Watch out for China in a few years - they have something like a 1.4 to 1 ratio of young men to women. All that unused testorone(sp) must be used up on something.
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Old 10-25-2001, 04:10 PM
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Quote:
On 2001-10-25 14:30, Guerilla Poster wrote:
Watch out for China in a few years - they have something like a 1.4 to 1 ratio of young men to women. All that unused testorone(sp) must be used up on something.
But with their zero growth policy, they should have enough old people to hold them back.
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Old 10-25-2001, 04:48 PM
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Quote:
On 2001-10-25 13:45, Dr T Non-Fan wrote:
The other 60% was probably my accidental good looks.

Hmmmmm.....????? LOL.

The name is David Foote and the book is "Boom, Bust, Echo". He should have had a book-signing session during the meeting. I enjoyed his talk, too. Wonder if the book is as interesting as his talk? I'll go buy a copy...maybe.

He told my friend that he had given this same talk to different groups of people but he got the best response from the actuaries.
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Old 10-25-2001, 05:04 PM
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It was a big seller in Canada a few years ago.

It's worth picking up, maybe after exams. It's a quick light read with some interesting points. It boils down to assuming that bulges in the demographic makeup cause predictable trends. A bulge of 30-40 year olds causes housing prices to increase, a bulge at 70 means you should be invested in nursing homes.
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Old 10-25-2001, 05:18 PM
Dr T Non-Fan Dr T Non-Fan is online now
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Well, I did add those other things.

I'll check out amazon -- give to their cause just once before the candle (tiki torch?) blows out.

One other possibility is, in this global-mobile age, for countries to see their bulges flattening and their tight-spots thickening, as people who are squeezed out of one country go to another (his Germany-Turkey example).

I'd like to see the demo-bars separated by born-in, and born-out. Maybe the immigration isn't so bad in some places but more so in others.

Also have a demo bar overlapped with 10-years ago shifted ten years. To see if the emigration (or mortality) has made a noticeable difference. Might be more dramatic in late 1800's.
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Old 10-25-2001, 05:26 PM
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David Foot, not Foote. (First search didn't find him.)
$12.51-$18.95 in paperback from various outlets, not including tax and shipping, which vary.
I think I might wait and borrow it from someone.
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Old 10-25-2001, 09:59 PM
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Just got the book at Border's today. 303 pages. Get the 1998 expanded edition with the cartoon illustrations. Now, I just need to find the time to read it since I already started reading 2 other books. Maybe, I'll lend it to a friend first.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: dulcinea on 2001-10-26 07:12 ]</font>
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