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View Poll Results: Will self driving autos kill car insurance?
Of course 42 16.60%
Maybe but not for a long time 182 71.94%
I'm a luddite... 29 11.46%
Voters: 253. You may not vote on this poll

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  #111  
Old 01-24-2013, 08:14 PM
sweetiepie sweetiepie is offline
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Originally Posted by MountainHawk View Post
I doubt collisions with animals will drop that much. Most of them are generally unavoidable. Google can't change the laws of physics and make a car moving 100mph (since they will presumably go faster) stop in 15 feet before it hits the deer.
I look forward to the inevitable google dodges bambi commercial.
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  #112  
Old 01-24-2013, 08:25 PM
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Besides, how can we trust Google to miss a deer if they can't even miss a donkey in Botswana?

Yes, I know that they didn't actually hit the donkey, it was just a funny story
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  #113  
Old 01-24-2013, 08:32 PM
Heywood J Heywood J is offline
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Originally Posted by nonlnear View Post
Throughout the whole exchange you kept talking about the operator (human or mechanical), reaction times, etc. without ever acknowledging the single most important constraint in such a situation: friction.
Upon further reflection, I realize that I did make one unstated assumption, the violation of which could lead to a physically unavoidable accident. I was operating under assumption that computer-controlled car would never be going too fast for its ability to detect new objects in its path. It would always leave enough space to swerve around an object of reasonable width straight ahead, and it would always leave enough space on the side for objects coming at it from the side at reasonable speed. Obviously if it's going at 200 mph and can only see 10 feet ahead, then it won't be able to avoid a newly-detected object in its path.

That said, I think that assumption was a reasonable one, and one that would be a basic requirement for such a system. I think that upon your own reflection, you would realize that I put a lot of thought into my argument with a lot of understanding of vehicle dynamics, and that perhaps you did not adopt the most helpful tone when making your own argument.
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  #114  
Old 01-24-2013, 11:20 PM
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I was once driving on a two lane country highway with no traffic. While passing an 8-10 foot cyclone fence that surrounded a junk yard, a deer jumped out from who-knows-where and over the cyclone fence and into my path. Luckily for me, I just smacked his hind quarters with my headlight and passenger side quarter panel, but we would have probably need to be driving around 35mph to avoid the deer under those circumstances. I'm not willing to stay within 35mph over an open highway with no traffic for a 50-60 mile trip. Just sayin'.
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  #115  
Old 01-24-2013, 11:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Ron Weasley View Post
I was once driving on a two lane country highway with no traffic. While passing an 8-10 foot cyclone fence that surrounded a junk yard, a deer jumped out from who-knows-where and over the cyclone fence and into my path. Luckily for me, I just smacked his hind quarters with my headlight and passenger side quarter panel, but we would have probably need to be driving around 35mph to avoid the deer under those circumstances. I'm not willing to stay within 35mph over an open highway with no traffic for a 50-60 mile trip. Just sayin'.
How long do you think it took you to react? If you're like an average driver, probably between 1 and 2 seconds. You can cover a lot of distance in that time, and that's a huge head start for a computer.

In the hypothetical scenario I covered, where you go 60 mph, and spot a deer 100 feet away from you, the entire avoidance maneuver takes 1.2 seconds. Human driver wouldn't have to decide between swerving and braking in such a scenario. He'd just crash into that deer at just the moment he starts reacting.

Last edited by Heywood J; 01-24-2013 at 11:53 PM..
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  #116  
Old 01-24-2013, 11:49 PM
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  #117  
Old 01-25-2013, 12:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Heywood J View Post
How long do you think it took you to react? If you're like an average driver, probably between 1 and 2 seconds. You can cover a lot of distance in that time, and that's a huge head start for a computer.

In the hypothetical scenario I covered, where you go 60 mph, and spot a deer 100 feet away from you, the entire avoidance maneuver takes 1.2 seconds. Human driver wouldn't have to decide between swerving and braking in such a scenario. He'd just crash into that deer at just the moment he starts reacting.
I have seen deer right off the side of the road that was not moving and in some pretty tall vegetation. The only thing that would warn you of its presence is the reflection of their eyes; I'm not sure if current technology would process that effectively and have any sort of "advantage" in reaction time to a human that knows what to look for in those situations.
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  #118  
Old 01-25-2013, 12:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Vorian Atreides View Post
I have seen deer right off the side of the road that was not moving and in some pretty tall vegetation. The only thing that would warn you of its presence is the reflection of their eyes; I'm not sure if current technology would process that effectively and have any sort of "advantage" in reaction time to a human that knows what to look for in those situations.
Infrared sensors might do the trick.
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  #119  
Old 01-25-2013, 05:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Heywood J View Post
How long do you think it took you to react? If you're like an average driver, probably between 1 and 2 seconds. You can cover a lot of distance in that time, and that's a huge head start for a computer.

In the hypothetical scenario I covered, where you go 60 mph, and spot a deer 100 feet away from you, the entire avoidance maneuver takes 1.2 seconds. Human driver wouldn't have to decide between swerving and braking in such a scenario. He'd just crash into that deer at just the moment he starts reacting.
The distance was closer to 50 feet than 100, and since the fence surrounded a junk yard, it's possibile that an infrared sensor wouldn't have had much of an advantage distance wise.

Are you taking the position that a mature self driving vehicle would avoid all accidents? That just sounds unrealistic.
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  #120  
Old 01-25-2013, 08:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Heywood J View Post
Infrared sensors might do the trick.
True . . . but now you run the risk of getting a lot of "false" positives; not so much in the incorrect identification of wildlife, but that now your driving speed is likely to be reduced significantly because it is continually reading the presence of wildlife.

FTR, I look for problems of this technology in referrence to the roads I learned to drive on (the mountains of Colorado).

I do see a place for this technology to fit in with modern society, I just don't think that complete reliance on such technology is a good idea.
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