Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Cyberchat > Diversions > Bridge
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions


Bridge Sub-Forums: Frequency and Severity

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-01-2017, 12:12 PM
Steve White Steve White is offline
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 3,021
Default 2018 District 4 MSC

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve White View Post
Conditions are not BWS. They're typically just generic 2-over-1. Occasionally other agreements are specified in the problem.

I'll try to post the 2018 questions on the AO, but the answers will be mine, often influenced by anyone else's comments but not necessarily consensus answers. I won't be sending any PMs to solicit participation.
As noted in the post after that one, you can enter on your own if you wish.

Here is the January problem (there's alway just one a month), deadline Dec 20. http://d4msc.straguzzi.org/

This one seems pretty easy to me. 3NT without a stopper should be out, so 4D, presumably forcing after my 3C. But maybe it's more subtle than that. Is 4D forcing? That doesn't really matter to me; if partner wanted to pass 4D here he would likely be right if not already too high. Or conceivably I should be bidding 3NT to suggest a partial stopper, on the theory that with a full stopper I would have bid 3NT the round before. There's also some merit to 4S. In fact bidding 4D may well be putting too much pressure on partner to reach 4S (except that partner will often bid 4H, which I could convert to 4S and he should then know my shape*).

*Unless he goes overboard, interpreting 4D as forcing as I think it should be, and then interpreting 4S as a slam try.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-18-2017, 11:20 PM
Steve White Steve White is offline
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 3,021
Default

Any suggestions? My deadline is Dec 20. I'm still leaning toward 4D. Maybe, in my overall bidding plan, I should consider the possibility that 4H is our best contract. I don't think 4H by me now is best, but perhaps if I bid 4D and he bids 4H, I should pass instead of converting to 4S.

That's the downside of being a panelist: that you're encouraged to explain your thinking. And as a double whammy: they like controversy, so if you're thinking something stupid and do explain it, you may well be quoted.

Best thing about this problem: for the yearly scoring contest, no badder how bad my answer is, your lowest two scores get dropped.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-19-2017, 09:47 AM
Klaymen's Avatar
Klaymen Klaymen is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Studying for AINS 21 & 22
Posts: 19,387
Default

I think my partner is just bidding out his shape: 4 spades, 3 hearts, 4-5 diamonds, 1-2 clubs. If you had four spades you probably would have bid those over the support double. So I'm going to hope partner is sniffing out a 4-3 fit and has good values and we only lose two clubs and a heart in a 4 contract. Hopefully partner will show up with

AQxx QTx KQxxx x

Hmmm even with that I don't think we are going to make it without a 3-3 spade fit.
__________________


Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 12-19-2017, 01:57 PM
Numbers Nerd's Avatar
Numbers Nerd Numbers Nerd is offline
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Midwest
College: University of Wisconsin
Favorite beer: Ale, Lager, you name it
Posts: 1,626
Default

Nothing to add here except my agreement with 4D. Partner almost always will have 4 spades along with his 3 hearts, and unless D4 opens differently than I do (e.g. 4=3=3=3 with better diamonds than clubs), will have 4 diamonds. Now, could he have as much as 18-19 points? I think he could - he still hasn't made a rebid that could be passed.

Still, no matter what he has, I think 4D is the bid here. 4S is tempting though, as 10 tricks may very well be the limit of the hand. Picture him with AQxx, QJx, KQxx, xx, for example, and 4S is the best spot at IMPs. (unfortunately, the hand you want him to have, with the HA instead of the QJ, is a 1NT opener!) An even better hand is AQxx, Axx, KQxxx, x, and now both 4S and 5D make, so at IMPs you're ok - he won't pass 4D.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 12-19-2017, 02:00 PM
Numbers Nerd's Avatar
Numbers Nerd Numbers Nerd is offline
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Midwest
College: University of Wisconsin
Favorite beer: Ale, Lager, you name it
Posts: 1,626
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Klaymen View Post
I think my partner is just bidding out his shape: 4 spades, 3 hearts, 4-5 diamonds, 1-2 clubs. If you had four spades you probably would have bid those over the support double.
Why couldn't 2S show an 8-count and be passable?
Quote:
So I'm going to hope partner is sniffing out a 4-3 fit and has good values and we only lose two clubs and a heart in a 4 contract. Hopefully partner will show up with

AQxx QTx KQxxx x

Hmmm even with that I don't think we are going to make it without a 3-3 spade fit.
Actually you just pitch a heart if they lead a second round of clubs.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 12-19-2017, 02:28 PM
oirg oirg is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 8,297
Default

If I were 100% sure that pard would take 4D as forcing, I'd bid 4D. Otherwise, I'm bidding 4S.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 12-19-2017, 03:48 PM
Steve White Steve White is offline
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 3,021
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Numbers Nerd View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Klaymen View Post
I think my partner is just bidding out his shape: 4 spades, 3 hearts, 4-5 diamonds, 1-2 clubs. If you had four spades you probably would have bid those over the support double.
Why couldn't 2S show an 8-count and be passable?
With what shape? With 4-4 in the majors and an 8-count, it must be better to sign off in an known 4-3 rather than risk a much worse spot than 2H if partner has only 2 spades. 2H would be even clearer, with 4=5 in the majors, if 2S is passable.

Thanks for the comments from everyone. Still a little time left. I'm still leaning toward just 4D. Unlike oirg, I won't mind if partner thinks 4D is passable, even though I know he would pass with some hands that would make 4S and possibly some which would make 4H. I do think 4D is forcing, and would feel more confident that it is the best bid if I knew if were forcing.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 12-19-2017, 04:20 PM
mathmajor's Avatar
mathmajor mathmajor is offline
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Nowhere in particular
Studying for Japanese
College: B.S. Applied Math
Favorite beer: La Croix Grapefruit
Posts: 9,651
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by oirg View Post
If I were 100% sure that pard would take 4D as forcing, I'd bid 4D. Otherwise, I'm bidding 4S.
I gave this a lot of thought. I don't think there's a great answer. Moysian fit works best when you have all the top trump. In 4 it's likely West has a trick. There's not really a side suit to run and pitch on. You don't have top tricks vs. partner's shortness (i.e. quickly pitching on an AK). If partner is long with you (likely) there are 5 tricks, great, but it's doubtful P is shorter than you in . Too square.

In matchpoints I'd bid 3NT and hope for partial stops and 8 more tricks (likely, 4-5 finesses are marked) then have run on you.

IMPs... this bidding sequence is forcing to game. A cuebid over a X should be game forcing. P has strongly denied a club stop. He should know you are unlikely to have a fit. You responding 2 to X rather than 3 would also imply values. The 3 bid looks like a last chance to bid 3NT and I wonder if that's a full suit or control showing. 4 should be forcing. Might as well try 5 - looks to have the same hope as the moysian fit. (Clarify: my vote is 4)

P is probably more than minimum - if flat, at least 18 (otherwise 1NT) or has shortness with you. 4 is an out if P opened on a 3-card suit. Otherwise he would have retreated to 3 instead of sorta-reversing.
__________________
FSA
Opinions are provided for entertainment purposes only and are no substitute for professional guidance.

Last edited by mathmajor; 12-19-2017 at 04:26 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 12-19-2017, 10:21 PM
4sigma's Avatar
4sigma 4sigma is offline
95% confidence man
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Somewhere near the mean
College: Caltech Alumni
Favorite beer: root
Posts: 14,978
Default

I'm supportive of a 4 bid. Partner can still "correct" to 4 if for example he has a singleton club and thinks that's our best spot.
__________________
I am 95% confident.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 12-20-2017, 12:36 AM
Steve White Steve White is offline
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 3,021
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by 4sigma View Post
I'm supportive of a 4 bid. Partner can still "correct" to 4 if for example he has a singleton club and thinks that's our best spot.
Sure, 4 will keep the best contract in play, but it doesn't guarantee we'll reach it. Either 4H or 4S could be best (or maybe 4D or 5D or even 6D is), and I don't think we'll reach either 4H or 4S unless partner bids 4H over 4D, and if he does bid 4H we have to guess whether to pass or bid 4S. FWIW, I would bid 4S.

While 4D might be best, I think we're in a game forcing auction and can't end up there no matter what I bid.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:52 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.50646 seconds with 9 queries