Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Cyberchat > Diversions > Bridge
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions

DW Simpson International Actuarial Jobs
Canada  Asia  Australia  Bermuda  Latin America  Europe


Bridge Sub-Forums: Frequency and Severity

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #31  
Old 03-01-2018, 03:21 PM
Steve White Steve White is offline
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 3,021
Default

My initial reaction is to bid 3H, hoping not to be doubled, but sitting if we are. As a MSC problem, I don't even need to commit to what I would do next if doubled.
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 03-01-2018, 03:59 PM
mathmajor's Avatar
mathmajor mathmajor is offline
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Nowhere in particular
Studying for Japanese
College: B.S. Applied Math
Favorite beer: La Croix Grapefruit
Posts: 9,651
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve White View Post
80 () for 3D with 0 panelist votes, tho it did get about 25% of the solver votes
Score!

Is there a bid besides 3H on the latest problem? Pray they don't lead trump?
__________________
FSA
Opinions are provided for entertainment purposes only and are no substitute for professional guidance.
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 03-01-2018, 05:02 PM
Steve White Steve White is offline
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 3,021
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mathmajor View Post
Score!

Is there a bid besides 3H on the latest problem? Pray they don't lead trump?
Some might gamble a pass. Law of Total Tricks suggests they are likely to have exactly 8 diamonds and we are unlikely to have an 8 card fit, so that it is best to sell out at the 3 level.

Sitting for 3D X seems likely to be bad, but if they double 3H that could be worse.

If we have to declare, 3S could possibly be our best spot. I don't want to bid it initially since I think it's more certain to be doubled, and it may not be our best spot.

I don't see any merit to anything except P, 3H and 3S
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 03-02-2018, 07:43 AM
oirg oirg is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 8,297
Default

I'm bidding 3S. Partner's hand is something like Kx AKxxx xx QJxx. He doesn't have 6 heart cards or 5 club cards, as he would have bid differently over 1N. Also, outstanding hearts are likely to break badly as west bid 1N, and, if we play in hearts, partner will be shortened right away when they lead diamonds.
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 03-02-2018, 10:17 AM
Steve White Steve White is offline
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 3,021
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by oirg View Post
I'm bidding 3S. Partner's hand is something like Kx AKxxx xx QJxx. He doesn't have 6 heart cards or 5 club cards, as he would have bid differently over 1N. Also, outstanding hearts are likely to break badly as west bid 1N, and, if we play in hearts, partner will be shortened right away when they lead diamonds.
I discounted the possibility of his having 2 spades from the 1NT rebid, thinking declarer's stiff spade would be very unlikely. Now I'm thinking it is a very viable possibility, especially declarer having 1=4=4=4 shape. That's still only a possibility. Declarer in general (for his 1NT rebid) is more likely to have 2 spades.

As to partner having 2 diamonds? Unless dummy jumped with 3 (unlikely), declarer would rarely open a 3 card diamond suit with at most 2 spades, never with only 1 spade.

Considerations of partner's shape is what's giving me pause. If he has at most 1 spade, as I suspect, and at most 1 diamond as I expect, then he has 11 rounded cards. That's certainly possible for his 1H overcall, and I suppose for his double of 1NT, but for his double of 3D?

Ignoring the unlikelihood that he has that shape, Kx AKxxx xx QJxx seems much too weak and balanced to justify doubling 3D. Change it to xx AKxxx xx KQJx and it's closer.

I'm still leaning toward 3H, but finding it more tempting to pull to 3S if 3H is doubled. An immediate 3S is more committal when I'm not confident spades is best.
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 03-02-2018, 12:45 PM
oirg oirg is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 8,297
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve White View Post
I discounted the possibility of his having 2 spades from the 1NT rebid, thinking declarer's stiff spade would be very unlikely. Now I'm thinking it is a very viable possibility, especially declarer having 1=4=4=4 shape. That's still only a possibility. Declarer in general (for his 1NT rebid) is more likely to have 2 spades.

As to partner having 2 diamonds? Unless dummy jumped with 3 (unlikely), declarer would rarely open a 3 card diamond suit with at most 2 spades, never with only 1 spade.

Considerations of partner's shape is what's giving me pause. If he has at most 1 spade, as I suspect, and at most 1 diamond as I expect, then he has 11 rounded cards. That's certainly possible for his 1H overcall, and I suppose for his double of 1NT, but for his double of 3D?

Ignoring the unlikelihood that he has that shape, Kx AKxxx xx QJxx seems much too weak and balanced to justify doubling 3D. Change it to xx AKxxx xx KQJx and it's closer.

I'm still leaning toward 3H, but finding it more tempting to pull to 3S if 3H is doubled. An immediate 3S is more committal when I'm not confident spades is best.
The bidding is very confusing. East promised at least 5 spade cards by bidding 1S over 1H, leaving at most 2 spade cards between west and partner, meaning partner has to have either more than 5 heart cards or a lot of clubs. Then why did he double twice instead of bidding hearts or clubs?
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 03-03-2018, 02:27 AM
4sigma's Avatar
4sigma 4sigma is offline
95% confidence man
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Somewhere near the mean
College: Caltech Alumni
Favorite beer: root
Posts: 14,978
Default

My initial thought is to bid 3, though pass is an option. My sense is that 3 is unlikely to make unless partner has a 6th heart, which would be unexpected.

It sounds like partner has 1515 distribution with one more card somewhere.
-- If he has a 6th card in one of his long suits, he seems likely to have bid clubs at one of his last two turns.
-- If he has a 2nd diamond, my opponents are insane for bidding 3 preemptive in a seven card fit.
-- If he has a 2nd spade that's only possible if RHO's 1 bid was made on four, or LHO's 1NT bid was made upon a spade void. Neither of those seem likely, though the 1 bid on four is perhaps possible on AKTx.

None of these seem very plausible, and yet one of them must be true. I have no idea which is least impossible, so for the moment I'm going to construct an "average" 1515 hand for partner on the bidding and see where we belong.

How about: K AKxxx Q KJxxx (Plus an unknown 13th mystery card.)

Are they making 3? Hard to say. They probably lose 2 hearts and 1-2 clubs, can crossruff a bunch of stuff but maybe have to lose another heart or club in the end. I think passing the double is close to a toss-up whether we beat 3 a trick or not.

Can we make anything? 3 will depend on partner's heart spots, but let's say with a 4-2 break he's losing 1 heart and sometimes a second one. We also lose a spade and a diamond, and he'll be taking diamond taps which is bad. He can't enter my hand to take any club finesses, so figure we lose at least 2 clubs. I expect 3 is very rarely making.

How about 3? We're probably losing 2-3 spades, and on a trump lead we may also lose the first four diamond tricks as well as a club. That's certainly not going to be a good score.

This suggests to me that our best chance for a good score is by passing, unless we have any particular confidence that partner's 13th card is a spade or a heart. Even if it's a spade, 3 is still probably in trouble unless he has the A, or one of his suits is solid for the pitching of our diamond losers. 3 could play OK if he has a 6th heart and both the A and A, so he can manage a club ruff, but that seems fairly optimistic.

I think I've talked myself into passing 3X.
__________________
I am 95% confident.
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 03-08-2018, 01:35 PM
Numbers Nerd's Avatar
Numbers Nerd Numbers Nerd is offline
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Midwest
College: University of Wisconsin
Favorite beer: Ale, Lager, you name it
Posts: 1,626
Default

Thinking about partner's shape. RHO has five spades for bidding 1S over 1H. With LHO bidding 1NT, he has 1-2 spades, so partner has 0-1 spade. The opponents have shown a good diamond fit, so with my four diamonds, partner has 0-1 diamonds. So, he's what, 6-5 or 7-4 in hearts and clubs??? 3H seems to stand out here.

Edit: And...reading other's responses now, it seems great minds think alike!
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 03-20-2018, 11:31 AM
Steve White Steve White is offline
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 3,021
Default

Quote:
Thank you for participating in the District 4 Master Solvers' Club. This is a confirmation of your entry for your records.

--------------------------------------------------------
Problem set: April 2018
Respondent: Steve White (D4)
--------------------------------------------------------

Problem 1
Steve White: Three hearts. The opponents's spade, diamond and NT bids make it seem almost certain that partner has 11 rounded cards. Still slightly tempting to pass 3D, per LOTT and matchpoint scoring, but as Kaplan said that takeout doubles should be taken out.
x
Reply With Quote
  #40  
Old 04-02-2018, 07:23 PM
Steve White Steve White is offline
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 3,021
Default

100 points for 3H, chosen by 7 of 13 panelists and 16 of 45 solvers.

90 points for pass, the plurality solver solution. 80 points each for 3S, 4H, 4S. Nothing else got any votes. FWIW, partnerīs hand was AK, A108732, 10, AJ108.

In the bridge worldīs MSC, partners and opponents are assumed to be experts. Expert does not seem like a good description of the opponent who bid 1S here.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:52 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.47957 seconds with 9 queries