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  #11  
Old 07-07-2014, 02:40 PM
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Not sure why everyone assumes that the catastrophe would need to occur in the US to trigger some type of sell off.

Could easily have something happen in China that impacts global markets.
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  #12  
Old 07-07-2014, 03:04 PM
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Welcome to the Everything Boom, or Maybe the Everything Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by NY Times
Welcome to the Everything Boom — and, quite possibly, the Everything Bubble. Around the world, nearly every asset class is expensive by historical standards. Stocks and bonds; emerging markets and advanced economies; urban office towers and Iowa farmland; you name it, and it is trading at prices that are high by historical standards relative to fundamentals. The inverse of that is relatively low returns for investors.
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  #13  
Old 07-07-2014, 06:35 PM
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If I cash out what's outside by tax advantaged savings now it would pay off my mortgage, and then some (although the tax would be nasty). That's what I'm thinking about.

Plus, every year since the crash has seen a bump in the Summer, it seems were due, probably as soon as the fed announces interest rates will some day eventually go higher.
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  #14  
Old 07-07-2014, 06:45 PM
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That's like starting a sentence with:

"Not to be racist, but..."
or
"No offense, but..."
or
"With all due respect..."
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  #15  
Old 07-07-2014, 11:42 PM
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As stock prices rise in relation to earnings there is inherently more risk in these holdings. Eventually this trend will reverse. I'm not advocating that anyone run for the hills but I do believe that the correction is coming and those move to more conservative positions in the near future will be glad that they did.

One thing that I expect to make the next correction more severe is that many of the people buying stocks today are income investors and

1. They are not very comfortable in stocks and will be quick to sell in the downturn
2. As income seekers they will be ready to abandon stocks if anything that looks safe offers a decent yield.

If we return to anything resembling normal interest rates that will be a big hill for stocks to overcome.
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  #16  
Old 07-08-2014, 12:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AO_Throwaway_Acct View Post
I'm in a similar boat as OP. Invested a few thousand for the first time in May and it's made 9.8% since. It's hard to imagine that the trend will continue
Of course it won't. If you only invested that money because you expected to make an annualized rate of at least 200%*, you shouldn't have invested in the first place.

* depending on the exact dates, but ~10% in ~ a month
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Old 07-08-2014, 12:22 AM
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Quote:
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it seems were due
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  #18  
Old 07-08-2014, 09:33 AM
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Quote:
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probability waves
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  #19  
Old 07-08-2014, 10:50 AM
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I've backed off and sold some of my long term positions that were 30-40% in the money. Still trying to find other suitable investment vehicles (see other thread)
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  #20  
Old 07-08-2014, 05:11 PM
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In this thread: "After years of disappointment with get-rich-quick schemes, I know I'm gonna get rich with this scheme...and quick!"

Buying and holding for the long-term has historically been a great investment strategy.
Trying to time the market has been a terrible one.
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