Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Actuarial Discussion Forum > Finance - Investments > Non-Actuarial Personal Finance/Investing
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions


Fill in a brief DW Simpson Registration Form
to be contacted when new jobs meet your criteria.


Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #61  
Old 05-04-2018, 11:18 AM
yoyo's Avatar
yoyo yoyo is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 22,434
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ronaldy27 View Post
Well most people that do short term trading just want quick money and don't want to put in the work.
Not the game's fault that it has so many stupid players.

You touched a little bit in your prior response but can you clearly distinguish in what makes a trader speculator and a trader investor in terms of exactly how long they hold their assets (6months+, or more than 1 yr or more than 5 yrs?), and what kind of strategies long term traders use over short term traders use?

Let's say you buy a safe stock, what kind of valuation technique you use to find what the underlying company is worth?
Or are you one of those that just buy large cap safe stocks and hold it for decades and hope the market will handle everything else?
no, because as i said earlier, the two lie on a continuum

i am a fund investor, not an individual stock investor. mainly broad market index funds. i believe that i am not smarter than the markets and have no interest in trying to beat the market.

hope the market handles everything else? i suppose that's one way of looking at it. another way to look at it is that the us stock market has a history of providing nice returns over a long history. while past performance is no guarantee of future results, i believe the us economy will continue, on average, to produce good financial returns

Last edited by yoyo; 05-04-2018 at 11:22 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #62  
Old 05-04-2018, 11:24 AM
Darkrage Darkrage is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 1,281
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by yoyo View Post
no, because as i said earlier, the two lie on a continuum

i am a fund investor, not an individual stock investor. mainly broad market index funds. i believe that i am not smarter than the markets and have no interest in trying to beat the market.
hope the market handles everything else? i suppose that's one way of looking at it. another way to look at it is that the us stock market has a history of providing nice returns over a long history. while past performance is no guarantee of future results, i believe the us economy will continue, on average, to produce good financial returns
I have a very large interest in trying to beat the market, but I do not try to do so because I would probably fail.
Reply With Quote
  #63  
Old 05-04-2018, 11:29 AM
yoyo's Avatar
yoyo yoyo is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 22,434
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkrage View Post
I have a very large interest in trying to beat the market, but I do not try to do so because I would probably fail.
the high probability of failure (over a long time horizon) has pretty much extinguished my desire to beat market. it's nice to dream though

major props to those who do win that game.
Reply With Quote
  #64  
Old 05-04-2018, 12:31 PM
snakeroberts snakeroberts is offline
Member
Non-Actuary
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
College: k
Posts: 580
Default

Quote:
Or are you one of those that just buy large cap safe stocks and hold it for decades and hope the market will handle everything else?


I am one of those. Back up the truck on dips and hold forever. I only own 6
Reply With Quote
  #65  
Old 05-04-2018, 01:37 PM
yoyo's Avatar
yoyo yoyo is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 22,434
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Westley View Post
First, yoyo's answer is great. He says neither is bad or immoral, and I agree but of course not everybody agrees with that.

In addition to his comments, would say that a trader (and I think when I say "trader" I mean the exact same thing as how people are using "speculator" ITT) is playing a game that is more-or-less zero sum (negative sum, perhaps, depending on how you think about taxes and commissions). So, no, you're not just a "longer term speculator" in the sense that it's not a zero-sum game.
good point
Reply With Quote
  #66  
Old 05-04-2018, 02:06 PM
lulzEMH lulzEMH is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,473
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by yoyo View Post
good point
Seems zero sum if one is going long and short and over time has an average exposure net exposure of zero. If one is basically just trying to time the market alternating between cash and equities or just swapping equities but maintaining long exposure they should expect basically the market return for their average exposure (less fees, taxes..etc.) right? No clue if Mathgeek/Ronaldy are swinging long/short or not.
Reply With Quote
  #67  
Old 05-04-2018, 02:16 PM
yoyo's Avatar
yoyo yoyo is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 22,434
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by lulzEMH View Post
Seems zero sum if one is going long and short and over time has an average exposure net exposure of zero. If one is basically just trying to time the market alternating between cash and equities or just swapping equities but maintaining long exposure they should expect basically the market return for their average exposure (less fees, taxes..etc.) right? No clue if Mathgeek/Ronaldy are swinging long/short or not.
i don't know enough about any of that stuff to comment.
Reply With Quote
  #68  
Old 05-04-2018, 02:33 PM
snakeroberts snakeroberts is offline
Member
Non-Actuary
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
College: k
Posts: 580
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by MathGeek92 View Post

High leverage short term trading is risky no doubt, but consistency in returns is what I aim for. I don't use leverage, and I have beat the market consistently. The only year I didn't beat it was last year (2017) when the SPX was up like 20%. I only made 10%. I've never had a down year in 20+ years on doing this (maybe someday I will, but my strategy is pretty conservative and I make huge volatility premiums in times like this).
taking that much risk and only beating the market by 1 or 2 points is not good. So how much did you beat the market by or what are your risk adjusted returns?
or are you saying you have a better track record than most hedge funds?
perhaps better than James Simons no doubt. At least your broker is getting rich.

there is also performace anxiety as the money gets into larger and larger sums
Reply With Quote
  #69  
Old 05-04-2018, 02:52 PM
lulzEMH lulzEMH is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,473
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by snakeroberts View Post
taking that much risk and only beating the market by 1 or 2 points is not good. So how much did you beat the market by or what are your risk adjusted returns?
or are you saying you have a better track record than most hedge funds?
perhaps better than James Simons no doubt. At least your broker is getting rich.

there is also performace anxiety as the money gets into larger and larger sums
I think he said he didn't use leverage, which further amazed me about his stated performance of 20+ years.
Reply With Quote
  #70  
Old 05-04-2018, 03:32 PM
yoyo's Avatar
yoyo yoyo is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 22,434
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by MathGeek92 View Post
This is a serious question. Why do you call someone trading based upon price action "speculating", but when you buy something with the intent of holding for a longer term, aren't you just a longer term speculator? You are making a bet that the company wont F it up over the next years, right? You both are investing money.

High leverage short term trading is risky no doubt, but consistency in returns is what I aim for. I don't use leverage, and I have beat the market consistently. The only year I didn't beat it was last year (2017) when the SPX was up like 20%. I only made 10%. I've never had a down year in 20+ years on doing this (maybe someday I will, but my strategy is pretty conservative and I make huge volatility premiums in times like this).
this is a serious question. by how much have you beat the 20+ year market returns, net of expenses?
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:08 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.47311 seconds with 10 queries