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  #21  
Old 01-24-2020, 09:06 AM
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Does 3% consider latency of deaths on current cases? Do we need a flu LDF?
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  #22  
Old 01-24-2020, 09:10 AM
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Does 3% consider latency of deaths on current cases? Do we need a flu LDF?
3% is only of confirmed cases, it's quite possible a lot of people have gotten it, had the sniffles, and recovered.

They will only bother to test for people who end up pretty sick.

I suspect the 10% mortality from SARS has a similar bias built in.
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  #23  
Old 01-24-2020, 09:10 AM
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Okay, maybe not snakes, but bats.

https://www.technologyreview.com/f/6...aid.engagement
Quote:
Virus in Chinese outbreak is closest to one from bats, not snakes

Researchers say the virus spreading through China is in the same family as SARS and closest to one found in bats.

Discovery: Today, researchers led by Zheng-Li Shi at the Wuhan Institute for Virology posted a paper describing the virus in detail for the first time, including a picture of the virus infecting cells.

The new virus, dubbed nCoV-2019, is in the same family as SARS—a coronavirus that caused global mayhem starting in 2003—and even uses the same receptor to hack into a person’s lung cells, Li’s team found.


Spoiler:
Outbreak: The current epidemic, which started in mid-December, has already affected more than 500 people, killing several. It may have originated in an animal market in Wuhan, a city of 11 million that Chinese authorities have put under quarantine.

Viruses can make the jump from animals to humans, especially when wild animals are kept and sold in food markets, as is alleged to be the case in Wuhan.

Gene detectives: It didn’t take long for researchers to grab the genetic sequence of the virus and blast it against big gene databases to see what other germs it is most similar to. Already the virus has been collected and decoded from at least 24 victims in Wuhan, Shenzhen, and other cities.

Snake snafu: Another Chinese team this week claimed the virus could have come from snakes, but that widely reported finding already looks like a mistake. The new analysis shows its genetic makeup is 96% identical to that of a coronavirus found in bats. “I would be very surprised if this were a snake virus,” says Timothy Sheahan, a virologist at the University of North Carolina. Bats were also the ultimate source of SARS, scientists believe.



Okay, the first group was wrong, most likely.

In any case, perhaps eating bat soup is a bad idea.
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  #24  
Old 01-24-2020, 09:16 AM
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what about koala
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  #25  
Old 01-24-2020, 09:22 AM
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as long as the meat you get is koalaty
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  #26  
Old 01-24-2020, 10:36 AM
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Hmm... mortality as a percent of diagnosed is not on first page of google directly.

It appears spanish flu had approximately a 10%-20% mortality rate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

The Hong Kong flu only had a death rate around 0.5%: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_flu_pandemic

SARS had a mortality rate around 10%: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe...atory_syndrome

Hmm.... This table shows case fatality rates for various flu epidemics:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_f..._and_epidemics

Based on the comparison table, a 3% case mortality rate would be high.

Still over the last 2 centuries, HIV/AIDs has been a much more deadly disease than any flu or other disease.
And article I heard this morning said SARS mortality rate was 10% but MERS was 30%. So if this one is 3%, that is very low, but they also seem to be saying that human to human transmission is much easier with this one than the others.
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Old 01-24-2020, 10:48 AM
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First case confirmed in Chicago.

https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/fi...in-chicago-cdc

Spoiler:
CHICAGO - A Chicago woman who recently returned from China has been diagnosed with the first reported case of the coronavirus in the Chicago area, according to the Chicago Department of Public Health.

Officials said the 60-year-old woman who came through O'Hare International Airport on Jan. 13 was diagnosed with the coronavirus, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The woman is in stable condition, CDC officials said.

Initial symptoms of the novel coronavirus include fever, cough, tightness of the chest and shortness of breath, and those seriously ill developed pneumonia. There are currently no vaccines to protect humans against a coronavirus infection, according to the Illinois Department of Public Health.

Local health officials say there is no "imminent health risk" to the public.

City and state officials are holding a news conference at 10:30 a.m. regarding the first case.

O'Hare International Airport began screening for symptoms of the respiratory coronavirus Wednesday.

One veteran of the SARS outbreak said that while there are some similarities in the new virus — namely its origins in China and the link to animals — the current outbreak appears much milder.

Dr. David Heymann, who headed WHO’s global response to SARS in 2003, said the new virus appears dangerous for older people with other health conditions, but doesn’t seem nearly as infectious as SARS.

“It looks like it doesn’t transmit through the air very easily and probably transmits through close contact,” he said. “That was not the case with SARS.”

Health officials confirmed earlier this week that the disease can be spread between humans after finding two infected people in Guangdong province in southern China who had not been to Wuhan.
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  #28  
Old 01-24-2020, 10:58 AM
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Are people going to be afraid of Chinese restaurants now?
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  #29  
Old 01-24-2020, 11:03 AM
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I'm looking for a good one that will be open for tomorrow. So not me, yet.
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  #30  
Old 01-24-2020, 11:25 AM
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Are people going to be afraid of Chinese restaurants now?
That would be sheer wonton discrimination.
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