Actuarial Outpost Censored SOA Article!!!!!!! You Will Be Shocked!
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#11
02-03-2014, 11:11 AM
 campbell Mary Pat Campbell SOA AAA Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: NY Studying for duolingo and coursera Favorite beer: Murphy's Irish Stout Posts: 88,114 Blog Entries: 6

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Colonel Smoothie the funny part is that the image you posted is censored at work wait was that what you intended
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#12
02-03-2014, 04:10 PM
 Phileas Fogg Member SOA Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 1,458

I have found that the recursive method is useful in the classroom setting for problems like this with somewhat smaller numbers. For example, if n = 50 and p = 0.01 and I want Pr[K<= 2], I can estimate Pr[K = 0] = e^-0.5 ~ 0.605 and then Pr[K = 1] = 50*0.01/0.99*0.6 ~ 0.306 and Pr[K = 2] = 49/2*0.01/0.99*0.306 ~ 0.076.

0.987, final answer. Checking via Excel, 0.605/0.306/0.076 sums to 0.986 (after consideration of additional digits). Impressive enough if you can do it in under a minute without a calculator in front of a bunch of easily impressed students.
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#13
02-03-2014, 04:17 PM
 oedipus rex Member SOA AAA Join Date: Nov 2002 Favorite beer: too many to list here Posts: 15,374

yodawg i heard you like censored images so i ... nevermind. but i like the article, and how it was presented.
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#14
02-03-2014, 04:23 PM
 erosewater Member Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: my mom's basement Studying for your mom Favorite beer: Schlitz Posts: 66,677

that should have been two nested spoilers, with one of them "yo dawg I heard you like spoilers..."

opportunity missed
#15
02-03-2014, 04:43 PM
 campbell Mary Pat Campbell SOA AAA Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: NY Studying for duolingo and coursera Favorite beer: Murphy's Irish Stout Posts: 88,114 Blog Entries: 6

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#16
02-04-2014, 01:43 PM
 ADoubleDot Member SOA Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Slightly Dusty South Studying for the rest of my life Posts: 37,153

this aggression will not stand imo
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#17
02-04-2014, 02:24 PM
 guest Guest Posts: n/a

Your point? Excel sucks? Use axioms or wolframalpha?

Similar points were made in American statisticians many years ago!

FYI I spent 1 minute looking at your article....
#18
02-04-2014, 02:58 PM
 campbell Mary Pat Campbell SOA AAA Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: NY Studying for duolingo and coursera Favorite beer: Murphy's Irish Stout Posts: 88,114 Blog Entries: 6

Quote:
 Originally Posted by secondlife Your point? Excel sucks? Use axioms or wolframalpha? Similar points were made in American statisticians many years ago! FYI I spent 1 minute looking at your article....
Let's see.....

Quote:
 Before we get into the different approaches, why should you care about knowing multiple ways to calculate a distribution when we have a perfectly good symbolic formula that tells us the probability exactly? ..... As we shall soon see, having that formula gives us the illusion that we have the “exact” answer. We actually have to calculate the elements within. If you try calculating the binomial coefficients up front, you will notice they get very large, just as those powers of q get very small. In a system using floating point arithmetic, as Excel does, we may run into trouble with either underflow or overflow. ...... To be sure, those numbers are so small and so large that they are generally out of bounds for practical applications. However, one never knows where ever-increasing complexity in actuarial modeling will take you. Understanding the “guts” of one's main calculation engines is important. Even if you use a non–Excel numerical computing solution, there will be floating point limits that one might need to be aware of.

Also, I was just having fun.
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#19
02-04-2014, 03:28 PM
 Actuary321 Member Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 28,071

So the SOA is worried about copyright but you go and post it all over the AO with no regard to the ramifications to poor dwsimpson? WOW.
#20
02-04-2014, 03:44 PM
 campbell Mary Pat Campbell SOA AAA Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: NY Studying for duolingo and coursera Favorite beer: Murphy's Irish Stout Posts: 88,114 Blog Entries: 6

I AM A REBEL
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