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Old 11-16-2007, 05:53 PM
Actuary789 Actuary789 is offline
 
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Default Module Exercise - Reserve Part

Hi everyone,

This is actually my first post on the AO but I've done a bit of reading and it seems like there's a lot of helpful people around here! Is anyone else working on this exercise? I've gone through the reserve part so far and was looking to get some others opinions...

I see we're supposed to reserve for the small group segment only (after I did it for everyone!). Should we simply ignore all of the medium group stuff? Or use it in calculating completion factors and such? Should we do the process twice- once for medical and once for pharmacy? Did you do anything to adjust for the different geographies? When we use membership, should we adjust for the demographic factor? So far I kept it simple and did just small group with everything together and no geography or demographic adjustments. Also, I used only the claims in 2005 as a basis for my calculations and ignored the early stuff (other than the specific question on the inc in 2004 pd in 2005). Anyone feel differently?

Thanks for your help and if anyone else has questions (on other things I get) I'd be happy to try to help!
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Old 11-19-2007, 09:24 AM
cincinnatikid cincinnatikid is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Actuary789 View Post
Hi everyone,

This is actually my first post on the AO but I've done a bit of reading and it seems like there's a lot of helpful people around here! Is anyone else working on this exercise? I've gone through the reserve part so far and was looking to get some others opinions...

I see we're supposed to reserve for the small group segment only (after I did it for everyone!). Should we simply ignore all of the medium group stuff? Or use it in calculating completion factors and such? Should we do the process twice- once for medical and once for pharmacy? Did you do anything to adjust for the different geographies? When we use membership, should we adjust for the demographic factor? So far I kept it simple and did just small group with everything together and no geography or demographic adjustments. Also, I used only the claims in 2005 as a basis for my calculations and ignored the early stuff (other than the specific question on the inc in 2004 pd in 2005). Anyone feel differently?

Thanks for your help and if anyone else has questions (on other things I get) I'd be happy to try to help!
Welcome!

I'm in agreement with everything you have said, I didn't feel the need to segment the data any further than filtering for only small group. All of the data seems to complete at similar rates (complete after 6 months from incurral), so there's no real need to split it all out.

I'll be working on the remaining tasks this week, so feel free to shoot me a PM if you have any questions.
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Old 12-07-2007, 08:28 PM
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ajstudies ajstudies is offline
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For a couple of the methods you need a trend assumption. We don't have all the detail to do a complete calculation like we did in the case study. How detailed did you make your assumption?
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Old 12-11-2007, 06:47 PM
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Bühlmann Bühlmann is offline
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I just used the 12% from the case study for trend. I think that is what they intend for you to do.
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Old 01-03-2008, 12:54 PM
leslie leslie is offline
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Can anyone share what you have answered for the very last question: other considerations?
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Old 01-03-2008, 02:00 PM
MikeTheTiger MikeTheTiger is offline
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Can anyone share what you have answered for the very last question: other considerations?
I just listed all the things for which the PDF mentioned adjustments might be needed: seasonality, changes in trend, changes in speed of claims processing, changes in underlying morbidity, etc.
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Old 01-06-2008, 11:10 AM
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Bühlmann Bühlmann is offline
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fudge factors, goal seeks....
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Old 03-17-2008, 04:40 PM
MysteriousWays MysteriousWays is offline
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Which method did you have produce the highest IBNR? And the lowest? Thanks.
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Old 03-17-2008, 08:06 PM
Streetballer Streetballer is offline
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Which method did you have produce the highest IBNR? And the lowest? Thanks.
I have Bornhuetter-Feguson produces the highest IBNR. Incurred Claims produces the lowest one. Although all three methods give very close results.

How are you doing on this project? It's hard to find someone that's also work on it. I've just started on the pricing part. Let's help each other out to get through this.
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Old 04-04-2008, 02:15 PM
Shadowcat Shadowcat is offline
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did anyone else get the same as streetballer? i'm actually getting BF in the middle. (IC lowest).

I also looked at historical trends and am thinking of using something lower than 12%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Streetballer View Post
I have Bornhuetter-Feguson produces the highest IBNR. Incurred Claims produces the lowest one. Although all three methods give very close results.

How are you doing on this project? It's hard to find someone that's also work on it. I've just started on the pricing part. Let's help each other out to get through this.
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