Actuarial Outpost
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Cyberchat > Sports
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions

Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 11-12-2018, 11:13 AM
DeepPurple's Avatar
DeepPurple DeepPurple is offline
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 4,248
Default NLF QB-Clipboard Theory

I have said this idea for a few years, but my belief in it grows stronger.

NFL quarterback prospects do better when they can spend a year or more as a non-starter.

The intensity of being a QB {THE Man} at the same time as learning the league and getting used to the speed of the game is too great of a pressure cooker for most 21 or 22 year olds. Give them a year or two to learn the playbook, get groomed for decision making, hitting the weightroom, get used to having a paycheck, filmwork, etc and the average 1st round QB will stand a better chance in year 2 or 3.

Here's a few careers supporting the idea:

Also, major league pitchers are seldom as good at 22 as they are at 25 or 26. I know I am switching sports, but I think that throwing the ball is a common-enough link.

You can say that it's difficult to fit that in the salary cap, but I say it is easier because of the rookie pay scales.

Not everyone will be Peyton Manning and have the maturity to handle it all on career week #1. First round flameouts are the rule, not the exception. And chances are that if you are a 1st round QB selected in the draft, you are likely going to a worse than average team.

Of course, it helps if the team has a legitimate NFL starter to start above the draft pick. All of my list above did have that luxury (Brady and Romo both had the same Drew Bledsoe)
Come on. Let's go space truckin'. Come on!
Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2018, 11:20 AM
greenman's Avatar
greenman greenman is offline
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Paddy's Irish Pub
Posts: 13,925

There are a lot of crappy QBs who served as a backup QB for 1+ years.

There are a lot of good QBs who started as a rookie.
Dayman (ah ah ah ahhhhh)
Fighter of the Nightman (ah ah ah ahhhhh)
Champion of the Sun (ah ah ah ahhhhh)
You're a Master of Karate
And friendship
For Everyone

Last edited by greenman; 11-12-2018 at 11:24 AM..
Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2018, 11:55 AM
ldancer911's Avatar
ldancer911 ldancer911 is offline
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 17,298

What's the ideal number of games they should not be starting?

Teams recently seem to be going into the season starting a vet, then give up on it a few weeks in after they find out their team sucks and start playing the rookie.
Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2018, 12:47 PM
3rookie 3rookie is offline
Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 13,080

Brady and Romo weren't drafted/signed to ever become the starter. If the team already has a decent QB, then by all means sit out the rookie. But if the team sucks and the rookie QB can win the job, then go for it.

Would Mahomes be better/worse this year had he played last year? Did Rodgers need to sit for so long?
Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2018, 12:50 PM
TomHaverford's Avatar
TomHaverford TomHaverford is offline
Join Date: Feb 2013
Favorite beer: Bell's Expedition Stout
Posts: 4,531

ben roethlisberger was thrust into the starting role his rookie year and went undefeated (14-0). he won the super bowl the next year. he's been a top 5 QB for most of his career.

anybody can use anecdotes to back up their "feelings", give me real data please.
Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2018, 12:53 PM
The Right's Avatar
The Right The Right is offline
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 5,948

For every Brady there are a bunch of Blane Gabberts, most drafted QBs don't pan out and they certainly aren't doing anything but holding the clipboard. Data would be nice to see if you think this is true.

Peyton stats were atrocious at the beginning. He threw plenty of picks when he first got into the league.

Mahomes probably could have started his first year, it likely wouldn't have mattered since he's got Andy coaching him.
People on welfare drive Escalades and eat caviar
Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2018, 01:03 PM
ShundayBloodyShunday's Avatar
ShundayBloodyShunday ShundayBloodyShunday is offline
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 2,258

"Sitting out for a year or two" is no guarantee of increased maturity.

The biggest piece that is often left out of these discussions is the coaching/mentoring from the coaches and fellow players.

Team dynamics can also play a critical role in a (new) QB's ability to integrate/adapt/perform.
Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2018, 01:22 PM
OnLevel OnLevel is online now
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 1,310

I don't think Russel Wilson sat either.
Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2018, 01:30 PM
Pujols4Prez's Avatar
Pujols4Prez Pujols4Prez is offline
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 13,562

Sitting out also costs a team the cheapest years of a QB’s career. That window where really good QBs are dirt cheap is super valuable.
Hardwork is the crutch of the talent-less.

Originally Posted by Statatak View Post
what's a JAS
Reply With Quote
Old 11-12-2018, 01:41 PM
jesusislord jesusislord is offline
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,721

Hard to discern if it works. Brady and Rodgers played for competent organizations where the QB in front of them had a track record of winning. The teams were already built around them. The Patriots defense was elite in the early 2000s, so that helps.

A lot of times highly drafted rookie QBs are forced into the starting role without a supporting cast (including crap O-line) and maybe a coach/coordinator on their way out the door.

The Chiefs were smart to load up on skill positions around Mahomes and they were building the o-line up for a few years prior to his arrival.

Big Ben - competent/stable organization with elite defense and good skill positions

Wilson - good defense and somewhat competent coaching/GM

How does Andrew Luck fit into this? The Colts team/organization wasn't all that competent when he arrived, yet they went to playoffs his first year. I guess you could say Bruce Arians was the reason (also was there when Peyton was drafted and was on staff with the Steelers with Big Ben).
God is real and His love is unconditional.
Reply With Quote

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:42 PM.

Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 1.37091 seconds with 11 queries