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Old 11-12-2018, 11:13 AM
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DeepPurple DeepPurple is offline
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Default NLF QB-Clipboard Theory

I have said this idea for a few years, but my belief in it grows stronger.


NFL quarterback prospects do better when they can spend a year or more as a non-starter.

The intensity of being a QB {THE Man} at the same time as learning the league and getting used to the speed of the game is too great of a pressure cooker for most 21 or 22 year olds. Give them a year or two to learn the playbook, get groomed for decision making, hitting the weightroom, get used to having a paycheck, filmwork, etc and the average 1st round QB will stand a better chance in year 2 or 3.


Here's a few careers supporting the idea:
Brady
Rogers
Mahomes
Romo


Also, major league pitchers are seldom as good at 22 as they are at 25 or 26. I know I am switching sports, but I think that throwing the ball is a common-enough link.

You can say that it's difficult to fit that in the salary cap, but I say it is easier because of the rookie pay scales.

Not everyone will be Peyton Manning and have the maturity to handle it all on career week #1. First round flameouts are the rule, not the exception. And chances are that if you are a 1st round QB selected in the draft, you are likely going to a worse than average team.

Of course, it helps if the team has a legitimate NFL starter to start above the draft pick. All of my list above did have that luxury (Brady and Romo both had the same Drew Bledsoe)
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Old 11-12-2018, 11:20 AM
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There are a lot of crappy QBs who served as a backup QB for 1+ years.

There are a lot of good QBs who started as a rookie.
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Old 11-12-2018, 11:55 AM
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What's the ideal number of games they should not be starting?

Teams recently seem to be going into the season starting a vet, then give up on it a few weeks in after they find out their team sucks and start playing the rookie.
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Old 11-12-2018, 12:47 PM
3rookie 3rookie is offline
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Brady and Romo weren't drafted/signed to ever become the starter. If the team already has a decent QB, then by all means sit out the rookie. But if the team sucks and the rookie QB can win the job, then go for it.

Would Mahomes be better/worse this year had he played last year? Did Rodgers need to sit for so long?
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Old 11-12-2018, 12:50 PM
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TomHaverford TomHaverford is offline
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ben roethlisberger was thrust into the starting role his rookie year and went undefeated (14-0). he won the super bowl the next year. he's been a top 5 QB for most of his career.

anybody can use anecdotes to back up their "feelings", give me real data please.
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Old 11-12-2018, 12:53 PM
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For every Brady there are a bunch of Blane Gabberts, most drafted QBs don't pan out and they certainly aren't doing anything but holding the clipboard. Data would be nice to see if you think this is true.

Peyton stats were atrocious at the beginning. He threw plenty of picks when he first got into the league.

Mahomes probably could have started his first year, it likely wouldn't have mattered since he's got Andy coaching him.
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Old 11-12-2018, 01:03 PM
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"Sitting out for a year or two" is no guarantee of increased maturity.

The biggest piece that is often left out of these discussions is the coaching/mentoring from the coaches and fellow players.

Team dynamics can also play a critical role in a (new) QB's ability to integrate/adapt/perform.
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Old 11-12-2018, 01:22 PM
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I don't think Russel Wilson sat either.
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Old 11-12-2018, 01:30 PM
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Sitting out also costs a team the cheapest years of a QB’s career. That window where really good QBs are dirt cheap is super valuable.
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Old 11-12-2018, 01:41 PM
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Hard to discern if it works. Brady and Rodgers played for competent organizations where the QB in front of them had a track record of winning. The teams were already built around them. The Patriots defense was elite in the early 2000s, so that helps.

A lot of times highly drafted rookie QBs are forced into the starting role without a supporting cast (including crap O-line) and maybe a coach/coordinator on their way out the door.

The Chiefs were smart to load up on skill positions around Mahomes and they were building the o-line up for a few years prior to his arrival.

Big Ben - competent/stable organization with elite defense and good skill positions

Wilson - good defense and somewhat competent coaching/GM

How does Andrew Luck fit into this? The Colts team/organization wasn't all that competent when he arrived, yet they went to playoffs his first year. I guess you could say Bruce Arians was the reason (also was there when Peyton was drafted and was on staff with the Steelers with Big Ben).
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