Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Cyberchat > Sports
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions

DW Simpson International Actuarial Jobs
Canada  Asia  Australia  Bermuda  Latin America  Europe


Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #5631  
Old 11-30-2016, 05:31 PM
Mr F's Avatar
Mr F Mr F is online now
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 4,867
Default

Yeah, Jay should bat 8th. Zobrist should lead off but the non-shitty version of Heyward could too.
Reply With Quote
  #5632  
Old 11-30-2016, 06:00 PM
trondogss's Avatar
trondogss trondogss is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Master Control Program
Studying for GH Specialty
Posts: 8,340
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr F View Post
Yeah, Jay should bat 8th. Zobrist should lead off but the non-shitty version of Heyward could too.
Zobs almost has to be leadoff...however I could see a very unconventional lineup of something like Schwarbe/Zobrist/Rizzo/Bryant...any of those 4 in any order pretty much.

This even more unconventional...Contrares at leadoff. He plugged a .282/.357/.488 in 283 PAs last year.
__________________
P FM MFE MLC Modules 1-8 IA FA C ASA GH Core GH Advanced FSA Modules 2/3
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vomik View Post
You successfully played "just the tip?" Ive always ended up losing
Reply With Quote
  #5633  
Old 11-30-2016, 06:25 PM
Mr F's Avatar
Mr F Mr F is online now
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 4,867
Default

One more consideration in getting a CF stopgap on a one year deal: Ian Happ, even though he played 2B this year, was drafted as a CF and I'm sure could move back there. He had a damn good year in A+/AA, and even hit above average in his first AA go-round. He had an obvious dropoff on some peripherals and needs to adjust (BB% dropped from 16.4% to 7.3%, BABIP dropped from .381 to .310 suggesting worse contact quality), but the results were still decent.

If he has another great year in AA/AAA and with Baez showing the ability to play more at 2B, I could see Happ spending a decent amount of time in CF in Wrigley by 2018.
Reply With Quote
  #5634  
Old 12-01-2016, 10:17 AM
trondogss's Avatar
trondogss trondogss is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Master Control Program
Studying for GH Specialty
Posts: 8,340
Default

Yeah - Happ brings some versatility. I believe his comp was a Neil Walker/Utley type of 2B.

If Baez continues to do well and cut the K's, then Happ becomes a potential valuable platoon guy of the future in CF with an occational start at 2B.

Or a huge trade piece.
__________________
P FM MFE MLC Modules 1-8 IA FA C ASA GH Core GH Advanced FSA Modules 2/3
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vomik View Post
You successfully played "just the tip?" Ive always ended up losing
Reply With Quote
  #5635  
Old 12-01-2016, 12:17 PM
DeepPurple's Avatar
DeepPurple DeepPurple is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 4,229
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by trondogss View Post
162 Game Average over a career:
Player A: .287/.352/.384, 6 HR, 48 RBI, 27 2B, 3 3B, 9 SB, 5 CS, 95 K, 39 BB
Player B: .262/.346/.415, 17 HR, 66 RBI, 31 2B, 4 3B, 16 SB, 5 CS, 121 K, 70 BB

One guys is your proposed leadoff guy, the other is your No F'n way leadoff choice...but has better career numbers IMO.

Heyward career averages are not relevant. He was abysmal last year. His playoff stats were terrible. His swing was just miserable. How many popups to the 2nd base? How many weak ground balls? He's not the same player he was in Atlanta and St.L. He got his fat free agency, guaranteed money contract and it seems he quit caring. His contract will make us miss the Alfonso Soriano contract.


Supposedly he's a terrific clubhouse guy and all, holding the team meeting during the rain delay to fire up the troops. But stop to consider if he had hit ANYTHING in the series in Cleveland then they may have won by a few runs and not needed extras to earn the trophy.
__________________
Come on. Let's go space truckin'. Come on!
Reply With Quote
  #5636  
Old 12-01-2016, 12:45 PM
Mr F's Avatar
Mr F Mr F is online now
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 4,867
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeepPurple View Post
Heyward career averages are not relevant. He was abysmal last year. His playoff stats were terrible. His swing was just miserable. How many popups to the 2nd base? How many weak ground balls?
Of course it is relevant. You could have said the exact same thing about Jon Jay after 2015. He was actually a good amount worse in 2015 than Heyward was last season. The reason cited for Jay's bad 2015? Injured wrist. A big problem with Heyward's bad 2016? Injured wrist. I put more stock in career numbers over one year where a hitter is dealing with a wrist injury.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeepPurple View Post
He's not the same player he was in Atlanta and St.L. He got his fat free agency, guaranteed money contract and it seems he quit caring.
This is silly. There is little basis to say this. He had a shitty year while he dealt with a type of injury that is notorious for destroying a hitter's productivity. If his glove wasn't so valuable and necessary he probably should have been on the DL. By all accounts I've read he worked his ass off. He didn't quit caring.
Reply With Quote
  #5637  
Old 12-01-2016, 02:42 PM
Mr F's Avatar
Mr F Mr F is online now
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 4,867
Default

More reason for Heyward over Jay:

Heyward really wasn't a different player last year as far as place discipline goes:

- His BB% was nearly identical to the year before, though about 1% below his career average
- His K% was about 1% higher than 2015, though still below his career average
- His OSwing% was 1% higher than 2015, but below career average
- His ZSwing% went down by about 3% from 2015, and was about 3% below career average
- Contact% didn't really change
- SwStr% didn't really change

His LD% was about the same. He hit fewer ground balls and more fly balls, but the differences weren't crazy.

There was one place where Heyward was significantly different in 2016: Power.

His average exit velocity dropped from 90.7 in 2015 to 87.4 in 2016. That's the difference between being surrounded by guys like Carlos Correa and Jay Bruce and being surrounded by guys like Jacoby Ellsbury. Unsurprisingly, his power stats dropped:

- HR/FB% down from 12.0% to 4.8%
- Hard% down from 29.0% to 26.4%
- Med% down from 48.5% to 46.6%
- Soft% up from 22.4% to 27.0%
- Pitchers knew this, so he saw more pitches in the zone and more fastballs.

Weaker contact, especially against fastballs and pitches up and in the zone which Heyward saw more, are common when you're dealing with a wrist injury.

And yet his 87.4 mph avg exit velocity was HIGHER than Jay's 86.1 mph.

Jay had a .371 BABIP in 2016, to Heyward's .266. The difference is partially due to a better contact profile, but not entirely.

Here is one calculation of xBABIP using batted ball stats and contact quality: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/new...ted-ball-data/

Plugging in Heyward's numbers, you would expect an xBABIP closer to something like 0.297. Still not good, because his contact quality was worse than normal. Jay's I calculate at 0.344. If you use those, Heyward's 2016 OBP is somewhere around .325 and Jay's is 0.310. While Heyward did have worse quality contact, his results were partially impacted by crappy luck. Jay's results were partially impacted by good luck.

If you prefer Statcast stuff, they did an xBABIP for that too: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/a-n...-statcast-era/

In the worksheet, Heyward's xBABIP is again around .300. Not great because crappy contact, but not as bad as the actual results. Jay's is 0.337. If I plug in those xBABIPs, I get an OBP around 0.330 for Heyward and 0.305 for Jay.

It can be easily argued that Heyward projects to be better at getting on base going forward, even if you only limit your stats to Heyward's worst offensive season by a longshot. His SLG was also worse than Jay's, but we know about the wrist issues. With a healthy wrist, he's maybe back to slugging .400.

I still don't hate the signing of Jay. He's a decent platoon/4th outflielder at $8M. It's still a tragedy that we are even comparing Heyward to Jay in the first place, and a sign of how far Heyward fell. I wouldn't choose Jay over Heyward going forward though, for leadoff or for really anything else.

Last edited by Mr F; 12-01-2016 at 02:59 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #5638  
Old 12-01-2016, 04:46 PM
trondogss's Avatar
trondogss trondogss is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Master Control Program
Studying for GH Specialty
Posts: 8,340
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeepPurple View Post
He's not the same player he was in Atlanta and St.L. He got his fat free agency, guaranteed money contract and it seems he quit caring. His contract will make us miss the Alfonso Soriano contract.
Are you kidding me????? He has 2 Opt Out clauses in his contract at age 27. He has every reason to get back to his WAR machine self. If he played a "normal" Jason Heyward Season last year and then again this year...he opts out and makes an additional $50m in free agency. Heck, he still has a chance to put together two solid seasons and opt out at age 29 and make bank.
__________________
P FM MFE MLC Modules 1-8 IA FA C ASA GH Core GH Advanced FSA Modules 2/3
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vomik View Post
You successfully played "just the tip?" Ive always ended up losing
Reply With Quote
  #5639  
Old 12-02-2016, 07:22 PM
Dr T Non-Fan Dr T Non-Fan is online now
Member
SOA AAA
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Just outside of Nowhere
Posts: 93,487
Default

Lebron mans up:
http://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2016...ane-wade-bulls
__________________
"Facebook is a toilet." -- LWTwJO
Reply With Quote
  #5640  
Old 12-02-2016, 09:57 PM
Mr F's Avatar
Mr F Mr F is online now
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 4,867
Default

The World Series documentary on FS1 tonight was pretty great. Feels like just one month ago that I was watching them win the World Series live.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:45 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.31897 seconds with 10 queries