Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Exams - Please Limit Discussion to Exam-Related Topics > SoA/CAS Preliminary Exams > Long-Term Actuarial Math
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions

DW Simpson International Actuarial Jobs
Canada  Asia  Australia  Bermuda  Latin America  Europe


Long-Term Actuarial Math Old Exam MLC Forum

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #51  
Old 10-28-2017, 01:19 AM
mel.fel mel.fel is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 281
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by josephshack View Post
I cannot remember what letter choice I selected for that one.
i flat out made a super educated guess. im not gonna be of any help here x
also remember PAK may not be 100% correct... unless someone confirms it/until the answe ris out.
__________________
ASA
Reply With Quote
  #52  
Old 10-28-2017, 05:46 AM
HealthHoncho HealthHoncho is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Studying for C
Posts: 58
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by josephshack View Post
Just curious,

for the first question, did anyone do it this way:

use fact that curtate expectation of live aged 60 = 1 to solve for curtate expectation of live aged 61, plug curtate expectation of live aged 61 into expression of curtate expectation of live aged [58]+2, to actually solve for curtate expectation of live aged [58]+2, then add 0.5 to that to get the complete expectation of live aged [58]+2? Just curious.
I did this. It turned out to be simple to do it that way. I spun my wheels for a minute on this question. I think my answer was 1.9 if I remember correctly but I don’t think that the PAK indicates that as correct. Again though. I’m a little fuzzy on the answer choices.
Reply With Quote
  #53  
Old 10-28-2017, 07:46 AM
hunkal hunkal is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 35
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by HealthHoncho View Post
I did this. It turned out to be simple to do it that way. I spun my wheels for a minute on this question. I think my answer was 1.9 if I remember correctly but I donít think that the PAK indicates that as correct. Again though. Iím a little fuzzy on the answer choices.
I think I got 1.6 and felt pretty confident
Reply With Quote
  #54  
Old 10-28-2017, 07:56 AM
hunkal hunkal is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 35
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mel.fel View Post
ha im the opposite. i got the premium but not the variance.
again, just ran out of time. lmao.
How did you get the premium? It was like
1030= P*(continuous ten year annuity state 0 (a00) + .75* continuous ten year annuity state 1 (a01))

I calculated a00 as 1/(.06+.025)*(1-e^-.085*10) and a01 as integral from 0 to 10 of e^-.06*tpx01 that was from the first question and I kept getting 95 or something like that which wasn't right
Reply With Quote
  #55  
Old 10-28-2017, 02:58 PM
josephshack josephshack is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Favorite beer: Hop Devil
Posts: 58
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hunkal View Post
I think I got 1.6 and felt pretty confident
Do you remember how you did it?

This is what I did:

wrote out expression for e_{[58]+2}

which was: p_{[58]+2}+p_{[58]+2}*p_{61}+p_{[58]+2}*p_{61}*p_{62}+...

rewrote as

p_{[58]+2}+p_{[58]+2}*(e_{61}) . because it was 3 year select period.

To get e_{61}, use recursion property: e_{60}=p_{60}*(1+e_{61}) because they gave us what e_{60} was equal to.

plug e_{61} back into exspression for e_{[58]+2}, evaluate, then you have

e_{[58]+2}. After that, add 0.5 to e_{[58]+2} to get the complete expectation of life aged {58}+2.

My gut feeling is the mistakes happened here:



when calculating e_{61}

some people might have calculated using the following:

e_{60}=p_{[58]+2}(1+e_{61}), but I do not think p_{[58]+2} should have been used here, instead p_{60} should have been used.

Just my thoughts. I cannot remember my answer, but I am pretty sure I used

p_{60} instead of p_{[58]+2} in the expression for e_{60}, to solve for e_{61}.

I hope I got this one correct, I really do. I am probably missing something here though. I burned about 12 minutes on this problem. Not smart, but it was in the last half hour of the exam and I was just trying to wrack up as many MC points as possible.
__________________
ASA

Last edited by josephshack; 10-28-2017 at 03:02 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #56  
Old 10-28-2017, 03:44 PM
HealthHoncho HealthHoncho is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Studying for C
Posts: 58
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by josephshack View Post
Do you remember how you did it?

This is what I did:

wrote out expression for e_{[58]+2}

which was: p_{[58]+2}+p_{[58]+2}*p_{61}+p_{[58]+2}*p_{61}*p_{62}+...

rewrote as

p_{[58]+2}+p_{[58]+2}*(e_{61}) . because it was 3 year select period.

To get e_{61}, use recursion property: e_{60}=p_{60}*(1+e_{61}) because they gave us what e_{60} was equal to.

plug e_{61} back into exspression for e_{[58]+2}, evaluate, then you have

e_{[58]+2}. After that, add 0.5 to e_{[58]+2} to get the complete expectation of life aged {58}+2.

My gut feeling is the mistakes happened here:



when calculating e_{61}

some people might have calculated using the following:

e_{60}=p_{[58]+2}(1+e_{61}), but I do not think p_{[58]+2} should have been used here, instead p_{60} should have been used.

Just my thoughts. I cannot remember my answer, but I am pretty sure I used

p_{60} instead of p_{[58]+2} in the expression for e_{60}, to solve for e_{61}.

I hope I got this one correct, I really do. I am probably missing something here though. I burned about 12 minutes on this problem. Not smart, but it was in the last half hour of the exam and I was just trying to wrack up as many MC points as possible.
I agree with what you did in the top half of your comment. Solving for e61 then multiplying by the select probability and adding a half to get the complete expectation.
Reply With Quote
  #57  
Old 10-28-2017, 03:48 PM
cixelsidmaikool cixelsidmaikool is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
College: Providence College
Posts: 37
Default

The Select/Ultimate mortality question always seems to be the same. It requires recursion to the point where the select period ends.

They were asking for e[58]+2 and e61 was given right? I forget the specifics.

e[58]+2 = vp[58]+2 * (1+e61)

and you just need to add .5 at the end because I believe UDD was assumed.
Reply With Quote
  #58  
Old 10-28-2017, 03:58 PM
josephshack josephshack is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Favorite beer: Hop Devil
Posts: 58
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by HealthHoncho View Post
I agree with what you did in the top half of your comment. Solving for e61 then multiplying by the select probability and adding a half to get the complete expectation.
Word, thanks HealthHoncho!
__________________
ASA
Reply With Quote
  #59  
Old 10-28-2017, 03:59 PM
josephshack josephshack is offline
Member
SOA
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Favorite beer: Hop Devil
Posts: 58
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cixelsidmaikool View Post
The Select/Ultimate mortality question always seems to be the same. It requires recursion to the point where the select period ends.

They were asking for e[58]+2 and e61 was given right? I forget the specifics.

e[58]+2 = vp[58]+2 * (1+e61)

and you just need to add .5 at the end because I believe UDD was assumed.

Hey cixelsidmaikool,

Get rid of that v!!!!

they were asking for e[58]+2. e_{60} was given as 1 I thought. Not e_{61}. I could be wrong, but I am pretty sure e_{60} was given.


But your method makes sense: e[58]+2 = p[58]+2 * (1+e61). Just gotta solve for e_{61} with what they gave us then use that to get e[58]+2.
__________________
ASA

Last edited by josephshack; 10-28-2017 at 04:04 PM..
Reply With Quote
  #60  
Old 10-28-2017, 04:02 PM
hach hach is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 60
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by josephshack View Post
Do you remember how you did it?

This is what I did:

wrote out expression for e_{[58]+2}

which was: p_{[58]+2}+p_{[58]+2}*p_{61}+p_{[58]+2}*p_{61}*p_{62}+...

rewrote as

p_{[58]+2}+p_{[58]+2}*(e_{61}) . because it was 3 year select period.

To get e_{61}, use recursion property: e_{60}=p_{60}*(1+e_{61}) because they gave us what e_{60} was equal to.

plug e_{61} back into exspression for e_{[58]+2}, evaluate, then you have

e_{[58]+2}. After that, add 0.5 to e_{[58]+2} to get the complete expectation of life aged {58}+2.

My gut feeling is the mistakes happened here:



when calculating e_{61}

some people might have calculated using the following:

e_{60}=p_{[58]+2}(1+e_{61}), but I do not think p_{[58]+2} should have been used here, instead p_{60} should have been used.

Just my thoughts. I cannot remember my answer, but I am pretty sure I used

p_{60} instead of p_{[58]+2} in the expression for e_{60}, to solve for e_{61}.

I hope I got this one correct, I really do. I am probably missing something here though. I burned about 12 minutes on this problem. Not smart, but it was in the last half hour of the exam and I was just trying to wrack up as many MC points as possible.
I did the same thing and found 1.6 which was b) . Why you think that you have done a mistake ? You didn't arrive to an answer ?
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:23 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.27230 seconds with 9 queries