Thesis

[minerva2]

Hello,
I'm back with a new subject and I'd like to have your opinion. It's the modelisation of pandemic risks. What do you think about it?

Thank you for your help!

[limabeanactuary]

Hi minerva - sounds like a good topic, if you have the resources to investigate. What aspects of pandemic modeling are you considering? The economic impact?

[minerva2]

Hey!!
Thanks for your reply and happy new year

I didn't really think about it deeply but yes the economic impact sounds like a good angle or social. I'll think more about it.
Thank you

[limabeanactuary]

The reason I'm asking this is there are models out there on how epidemics spread (various structures, but the common ones I've seen have geographic and age components)...you could use something like that as a base.

But a more interesting aspect would be looking on the economic results, or positing a model for that. If the really old get sick... well, that's not going to have a huge impact on productivity, for example. But some of the worst pandemics hit the middle-aged range, those with the biggest economic output. Then there's the aspect of hits to life (and health) insurance companies.

You'll want to make the topic sufficiently focused, though. As I said earlier in the thread, if you make the topic too big, you'll not be able to get a coherent thesis out of it.

[minerva2]

that's brilliant! thanks so much for your help. You always give very useful advices. I like the pandemic subject, but I didn't think about it the way you did. I love it! thanks! I'll see with my professor. Thanks again. I might need your help later.
Best wishes for 2012!

[OldGuy]

I suggest pretty charts and graphs. Interactive is the way to go. I wrote a simple, model based on the Game of Life, which could be expanded using more detailed population models and more robust infection models.