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  #1031  
Old 10-16-2018, 11:40 AM
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Maphisto's Sidekick Maphisto's Sidekick is offline
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And the notion that the GI tract is an existential threat is a complete red herring. If it were the SOA wouldn't bother with this diplomatic route, they'd continue full steam ahead with their more militaristic attempts. The reason for the change is its lack of success. The SOA will only take over US P&C if the CAS chooses to give it up, which would be a real shame.
I agree that it's unlikely that the SOA would be able to effect a hostile takeover of the CAS's niche in the foreseeable future if we were focused strictly on North America.

However, property-casualty is the fastest growing segment of insurance abroad, and the SOA is reported to have an advantage vs the CAS in recruitment abroad due to its superior resources. If the GI track were to gain traction abroad (and that is a big if), then 20/30/50 years down the road, the situation in North America might look different.

I'll be retired before it's a problem, so I don't necessarily care about that far in the future. But perhaps it's a bit more relevant to college students now considering pursuing a P&C actuarial career. It might be a low-probability threat, but many of us doing P&C work make careers out of quantifying and mitigating low-probability existential threats.

I am NOT saying that we should merge because we're all doomed. I AM saying that it makes some sense to recognize that concern, and quash it somehow before it becomes a problem..if that can be done without screwing all of us over.
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  #1032  
Old 10-16-2018, 11:42 AM
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I agree that it's unlikely that the SOA would be able to effect a hostile takeover of the CAS's niche in the foreseeable future if we were focused strictly on North America.

However, property-casualty is the fastest growing segment of insurance abroad, and the SOA is reported to have an advantage vs the CAS in recruitment abroad due to its superior resources. If the GI track were to gain traction abroad (and that is a big if), then 20/30/50 years down the road, the situation in North America might look different.

I'll be retired before it's a problem, so I don't necessarily care about that far in the future. But perhaps it's a bit more relevant to college students now considering pursuing a P&C actuarial career. It might be a low-probability threat, but many of us doing P&C work make careers out of quantifying and mitigating low-probability existential threats.

I am NOT saying that we should merge because we're all doomed. I AM saying that it makes some sense to recognize that concern, and quash it somehow before it becomes a problem..if that can be done without screwing all of us over.
I see your point on the international front, but I'm not sure why US P&C actuaries (even thinking about future CAS members) should care about the ability for US actuarial organizations to recruit non-US actuaries? Why don't we just continue specializing in US P&C (similar story w.r.t the whole data science worry, let's continue to specialize in US P&C actuarial, as we've been doing successfully).
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  #1033  
Old 10-16-2018, 11:47 AM
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Except this isn't a JV, and agreeing to this takeover will be irreversibly damaging to the CAS (regardless of any "divorce clause" promises). The CAS credentials will be eliminated (whether or not alternatives are created) and CAS members will be run over politically within the SOA.

Are CAS members truly unable to see this?
It depends on the governance structure. If significant authority/autonomy is vested in the practice councils and Board power suitably limited, then this may not be a concern. But we certainly canít just take their word for it - I at least will need to see a specific proposal thatís acceptable before Iíd vote yes.
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  #1034  
Old 10-16-2018, 11:54 AM
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Don't forget our Canadian friends who also sit CAS examinations to qualify under the CIA Property and Casualty/General Insurance Track.
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  #1035  
Old 10-16-2018, 11:59 AM
Bob Miccolis Bob Miccolis is offline
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I see your point on the international front, but I'm not sure why US P&C actuaries (even thinking about future CAS members) should care about the ability for US actuarial organizations to recruit non-US actuaries? Why don't we just continue specializing in US P&C (similar story w.r.t the whole data science worry, let's continue to specialize in US P&C actuarial, as we've been doing successfully).
Why do you ignore Canada? It is very much a significant part of the CAS and SOA.
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  #1036  
Old 10-16-2018, 12:15 PM
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I see your point on the international front, but I'm not sure why US P&C actuaries (even thinking about future CAS members) should care about the ability for US actuarial organizations to recruit non-US actuaries? Why don't we just continue specializing in US P&C (similar story w.r.t the whole data science worry, let's continue to specialize in US P&C actuarial, as we've been doing successfully).
I'm going to preface this by saying that what follows is, I suspect, fairly unlikely and mostly conjecture.

If the SOA has the resources to commit and can execute effectively, they could position themselves as a gold-standard, perhaps even THE gold-standard for actuarial education outside the US and the UK.

With the GI track (if it were fixed), they could potentially be seen as a global leader in both life and P&C arenas.

Presumably the CAS lacks and will be unable to muster the resources to effectively compete with the SOA in the "international gold standard" arena. Yes, we've collaborated with international societies, and actuaries abroad sorta know who we are, but would that remain true in 20/30/50 years if the SOA set its mind to the task?

Right now, in North America, we in the CAS do not perceive the GI track as viable threat, both for content reasons, and because we are known to be the experts on P&C actuarial matters.

But in the future...would we still be able to claim that we are THE experts in P&C actuarial matters in a future where the SOA had a viable claim to GI expertise across most of the rest of the world? Or, would international success make SOA-GI seem less improbable in the US and Canada?

I think that is still a long shot...but I'm writing this while running a model that's helping me value some pretty improbable scenarios for my employer.

There is no immediate existential threat to the CAS beyond perhaps the potential of a merger. The GI track should not be the single driving force behind a merger. But I do think it's reasonable to at least ask the question "at what point would it become a problem / at what point would we be unable to fix such a problem?"

And perhaps that's why the GI track was given as the sticking point from the CAS's perspective. I don't know that I agree, but I can see where someone else could reach that conclusion.

I would still prefer to build trust through collaboration before the grand unification, and that ways were found around the hurdles there. But I don't see any progress possible down that path until after a failure of the Fellows' votes..
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  #1037  
Old 10-16-2018, 12:16 PM
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Maphisto's Sidekick Maphisto's Sidekick is offline
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Why do you ignore Canada? It is very much a significant part of the CAS and SOA.
One of Canada's greatest contributions to the US economy is their surplus actuaries!
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  #1038  
Old 10-16-2018, 02:20 PM
Bob Miccolis Bob Miccolis is offline
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Exclamation ISN'T INDEPENDENCE THE GOLD STANDARD?

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It depends on the governance structure. If significant authority/autonomy is vested in the practice councils and Board power suitably limited, then this may not be a concern. But we certainly canít just take their word for it - I at least will need to see a specific proposal thatís acceptable before Iíd vote yes.
I am finding it hard to imagine a combo structure that is anywhere as solid for CAS stakeholders as an independent self-governed, member organization. The state/federal type of framework sounds tempting, but there are way too many "what-ifs" for me to get comfortable with.

Limiting the power of a Parent Board is a non-starter. Only the voting members can effect a limit of such power, and then the voting members would need to vote on anything that is outside those limits. Not to mentioned the issues around how future leaders might interpret such limits. Just not a workable structure.

There seems to be a HUGH risk to CAS members - WHAT IF the "limits on power" and "vested authority" are ineffective or have other unintended consequences?

Could it get so bad that casualty members would break away and start a new actuarial society? BREXIT for Actuaries?
Maybe, but before that might happen I suspect that member dissatisfaction would drive -
  • a continuing drop-off in volunteerism,
  • diminished pride in being a member,
  • stagnation of actuarial skills, and
  • deferring decisions to "the central authority".

Unlike employers or open membership associations, there just aren't any good alternatives for CAS members if they don't like how it turns out.
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  #1039  
Old 10-16-2018, 02:53 PM
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MAS 1&2 were presented as an improvement to CAS exams that the SOA likes, but it was noted that it took the CAS years to develop it, while the SOA pulled the GI track together in about a year. Difference in resources was a theme in several points....
Amazing how quickly you can reference a well put-together syllabus someone else already put together and tweak it a bit and claim you're better at putting together exams than a group that actually is starting from a bunch of post-it notes that are mostly unorganized and trying to bring it together.

Yes, they may have more resources, but this comment basically makes me want to say things that don't belong in a professional forum. I feel more like voting no with every additional piece of information put forth.
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  #1040  
Old 10-16-2018, 02:56 PM
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Amazing how quickly you can reference a well put-together syllabus someone else already put together and tweak it a bit and claim you're better at putting together exams than a group that actually is starting from a bunch of post-it notes that are mostly unorganized and trying to bring it together.
lol you forgot to mention that you also hire experts who became experts based on that very same syllabus that was copied
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