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  #11  
Old 10-12-2018, 01:54 PM
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George Frankly George Frankly is offline
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Originally Posted by ditkaworshipper View Post
tl;dr: No one really knows, but I'm confident that we will have jobs for the next 10 years regardless.

I agree with everyone pointing out that there would still be a private market.

Short term: this type of change would likely be an employment boom for health actuaries like ACA was. Change is chaos, actuaries profit off of that.

Long term: I don't think that trend would hold up like with ACA because of how deregulatory a Medicare for all move could potentially be. It could theoretically eliminate VA, Medicaid, employer insurance and Obamacare markets as entities within this space. There is still a lot of work that would need to be done regardless (I don't see any of the core payer or provider risk functions going away), but with less market fragmentation, there may be fewer distinct risk buckets to manage.

But, if you're asking whether I'd bet on government implementing that kind of efficient solution? I'm on board with the idea, but I doubt that it's politically palatable enough to get broad support in the next few years. And even if it got it passed, I'd be confident in at least 10 years of employment while getting everything set up, even if they passed a theoretically ideal plan (impossible).
It might be somewhat analogous to what happened (and continues to happen) within pensions. Overall work would begin to decrease, but the jobs could still be pretty lucrative over the short to medium term. Although it wouldn't take as long to wind down health care, I suspect.

Agree that some form of private insurance would continue to exist, certainly for supplemental policies. In fact, I suspect that market would grow markedly.

There would definitely be ongoing work on the provider side, imo. CMS will likely continue to push risk to providers, I don't see that going away soon and actuaries are a good fit to handle some of that work. Full disclosure for those who don't know: I work on the provider side and may be a bit biased.
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  #12  
Old 10-12-2018, 02:16 PM
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As much as people squeal, ACA has the vast majority of low-income Americans covered at very little cost (premiums and OOP). Now some states decided not to expand medicaid for political reasons. Those people were voted in by the same low income people by and large; I don't shed many tears there.
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  #13  
Old 10-12-2018, 02:28 PM
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As much as people squeal, ACA has the vast majority of low-income Americans covered at very little cost (premiums and OOP). Now some states decided not to expand medicaid for political reasons. Those people were voted in by the same low income people by and large; I don't shed many tears there.
even though Iím in full agreement, this post probably crosses the fine line into political.

But, I can tie this back into professional: having a single system for everyone would eliminate a lot of these headaches imo.
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  #14  
Old 10-12-2018, 02:36 PM
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I think any politically viable system will have a Medicare Advantage style private bid component. I could actually see a scenario where the demand for Health Actuaries increases. Our government is not good at making things simpler. Complexity = job security for me
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  #15  
Old 10-12-2018, 03:10 PM
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If a medicare for all type program were to be adopted in the US, the employment for health actuaries would just shift. Like many others have said, plenty of MA plans are out there which have a need for health actuaries - this "change" would likely shift some private medical insurers/actuaries over to MA. Additionally, not all health actuaries work with medical... health encompasses lots of stuff, from medical, to disability, dental, ect.. these types of benefits would still exist outside of a social program.

I could see some natural attrition taking place with a reduction of total health actuaries, but I doubt we would see any sort of mass eradication of health actuaries. I think this career is a stable choice with or without the changes.
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  #16  
Old 10-12-2018, 04:24 PM
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no worry man, welcome to the CAS # StrongerAsOne
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  #17  
Old 10-12-2018, 04:43 PM
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no worry man, welcome to the CAS # StrongerAsOne
thanks, let's average out salaries with the cas now

tia
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  #18  
Old 10-12-2018, 05:02 PM
DecoysLoisDecoys DecoysLoisDecoys is offline
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let's bring soa salaries up to cas levels
ftfy
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  #19  
Old 10-13-2018, 10:22 AM
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Originally Posted by ditkaworshipper View Post
tl;dr: No one really knows, but I'm confident that we will have jobs for the next 10 years regardless.
I dunno man. An awful lot of experts here on the AO told us health insurance actuaries wouldn't have jobs 10 years after the ACA passed. By that reckoning you've got less than a year left already.

Shine that resume up.
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The most important thing I have learned from the career forum is that the gurus in this field and keepers of supreme knowledge regarding all matters pertaining to the actuarial profession are unlettered actuarial students with < 5 years of experience.
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  #20  
Old 10-13-2018, 12:18 PM
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Health insurers lost a lot of business in Canada back in the 70's when healthcare started becoming publicly funded. I'm presuming that the loss of business will mean cutting costs and fewer jobs for actuaries.
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