Actuarial Outpost
 
Go Back   Actuarial Outpost > Exams - Please Limit Discussion to Exam-Related Topics > CAS > CAS Exams > Exam 7 - Estimation of Policy Liability & ERM
FlashChat Actuarial Discussion Preliminary Exams CAS/SOA Exams Cyberchat Around the World Suggestions

DW Simpson
Actuarial Jobs

Visit our site for the most up to date jobs for actuaries.

Actuarial Salary Surveys
Property & Casualty, Health, Life, Pension and Non-Tradtional Jobs.

Actuarial Meeting Schedule
Browse this year's meetings and which recruiters will attend.

Contact DW Simpson
Have a question?
Let's talk.
You'll be glad you did.


Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #831  
Old 03-19-2020, 01:01 AM
coolguy123456789's Avatar
coolguy123456789 coolguy123456789 is offline
CAS
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 4
Default

I don’t really see how they’ll be able to give this exam in June. I would not be surprised if the exams don’t resume until there is a vaccine widely available - hopefully in time for next April’s sitting. Best case scenario our social distancing etc works perfectly and in a few weeks from now nobody is getting sick anymore. Then gov’ts decide to ease up the restrictions. Is there any chance an outbreak wouldn’t start right back up? It’s a virus where many people have literally no symptoms and walk around infecting people for weeks. It’s not going to be realistic to effectively control it without measures like what we’ve put in place. I think we’ll be mostly in social distance mode until either we get a vaccine or it starts to look like long term social distancing kills more people than it saves.
Reply With Quote
  #832  
Old 03-19-2020, 01:21 AM
AbedNadir's Avatar
AbedNadir AbedNadir is offline
Member
CAS SOA
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Studying for FCAS
Posts: 2,866
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by coolguy123456789 View Post
I donít really see how theyíll be able to give this exam in June. I would not be surprised if the exams donít resume until there is a vaccine widely available - hopefully in time for next Aprilís sitting. Best case scenario our social distancing etc works perfectly and in a few weeks from now nobody is getting sick anymore. Then govíts decide to ease up the restrictions. Is there any chance an outbreak wouldnít start right back up? Itís a virus where many people have literally no symptoms and walk around infecting people for weeks. Itís not going to be realistic to effectively control it without measures like what weíve put in place. I think weíll be mostly in social distance mode until either we get a vaccine or it starts to look like long term social distancing kills more people than it saves.
Second wave starting already in asia. It will keep coming back until a vaccine is ready.
__________________
Reply With Quote
  #833  
Old 03-19-2020, 01:22 AM
niiiiiicky niiiiiicky is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Winery
Posts: 125
Default

I was way behind my schedule and felt very anxious. It seems all good now given the extra two months and I will start to study again with a peaceful mind
Reply With Quote
  #834  
Old 03-19-2020, 06:53 AM
amp019372's Avatar
amp019372 amp019372 is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Columbus, OH
Studying for 7 and 9
College: B.S. University of TN, M.S. Ohio State
Favorite beer: Spotted Cow
Posts: 864
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by coolguy123456789 View Post
I donít really see how theyíll be able to give this exam in June. I would not be surprised if the exams donít resume until there is a vaccine widely available - hopefully in time for next Aprilís sitting. Best case scenario our social distancing etc works perfectly and in a few weeks from now nobody is getting sick anymore. Then govíts decide to ease up the restrictions. Is there any chance an outbreak wouldnít start right back up? Itís a virus where many people have literally no symptoms and walk around infecting people for weeks. Itís not going to be realistic to effectively control it without measures like what weíve put in place. I think weíll be mostly in social distance mode until either we get a vaccine or it starts to look like long term social distancing kills more people than it saves.
I think the CAS may be planning on a way to do this remotely or allow us to take it in June even if it hasn't died down by then.

Either way, I feel like my motivation has plummeted to zero at this point. I'm pretty far ahead for 3 months out I suppose.
__________________
ACAS | 7 | 8 | 9



Reply With Quote
  #835  
Old 03-19-2020, 10:11 AM
SkolChicago SkolChicago is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 1,277
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by AbedNadir View Post
Second wave starting already in asia. It will keep coming back until a vaccine is ready.
?
__________________
ACAS 7 8 9
Reply With Quote
  #836  
Old 03-19-2020, 10:28 AM
kadsura kadsura is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Studying for the heck of it
Posts: 1,026
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SkolChicago View Post
?
He is probably referring to the uptick in HK/TW. I wouldn't go as far as calling it a second wave.

I'm actually optimistic at this point. I was very pessimistic 2 weeks ago as nobody was doing anything here ("it's just a flu"). I'm buying some SPY's.

China is not reporting any new local cases as of today and a few weeks ago it was reporting 1000's.
__________________
1 2 3 4 S 5 6 7 8 9 V V O O C
Reply With Quote
  #837  
Old 03-19-2020, 10:35 AM
kadsura kadsura is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Studying for the heck of it
Posts: 1,026
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kadsura View Post
My random forest analysis suggests there is now a 32.77% chance this sitting will be postponed

and/or cancelled
Quote:
Originally Posted by kadsura View Post
I now forecast there is 51.9% chance this sitting will postpone/cancel.
I now forecast there is a 100% chance this sitting will postpone/cancel.
__________________
1 2 3 4 S 5 6 7 8 9 V V O O C

Last edited by kadsura; 03-19-2020 at 10:51 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #838  
Old 03-19-2020, 10:49 AM
lostatsea lostatsea is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 64
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kadsura View Post
I now forecast there is a 100% chance this sitting will cancel.
Why do you think it will be canceled? Also what are your thoughts on the fall sitting?
__________________
ACAS | 7 | 8 | 9
Reply With Quote
  #839  
Old 03-19-2020, 10:51 AM
exponentc exponentc is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
College: JHU
Posts: 181
Default

CFA postpones their June stting
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...virus-pandemic
Reply With Quote
  #840  
Old 03-19-2020, 10:52 AM
kadsura kadsura is offline
Member
CAS
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Studying for the heck of it
Posts: 1,026
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by lostatsea View Post
Why do you think it will be canceled? Also what are your thoughts on the fall sitting?
I mistyped. was trying to be funny

I think the fall sitting will be OK. Honestly, if the US handles this seriously (which it is now - and unfortunately it has to take a stock market crash to poke the government into action), the epidemic will be over in 2 months. It's always difficult to predict the future, but I have faith in mankind
__________________
1 2 3 4 S 5 6 7 8 9 V V O O C

Last edited by kadsura; 03-19-2020 at 10:55 AM..
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:01 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
*PLEASE NOTE: Posts are not checked for accuracy, and do not
represent the views of the Actuarial Outpost or its sponsors.
Page generated in 0.36926 seconds with 12 queries