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  #851  
Old 03-24-2020, 02:58 PM
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Has anyone kept up the studying? I was really behind, yet it's hard to give a #&*@ right now. Have barely made a dent since the postponement was announced.
I've just been doing 1 hour a day on weekdays and unsuccessfully trying to get an hour a day on the weekends as well. It does feel hard to stay motivated knowing there's a real chance it'll get cancelled and pushed back to the fall or even next spring.
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  #852  
Old 03-25-2020, 01:15 PM
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Any base for your accusation? And why do you think other countries' numbers are trustable?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Under-...ments_in_China

Shephard, Wade (2015). Ghost Cities of China: The Story of Cities without People in the World's Most Populated Country. Zed Books. ISBN 9781783602186.
Umberto Bacchi (4 March 2013). "China's Ghost Towns: Deserted Cities Raise Fears of Debt Crisis". International Business Times.
"China's eerie ghost cities a 'symptom' of the country's economic troubles and housing bubble".
Shepard, Wade (1 September 2015). "Ghost Cities of China: A Discussion with Wade Shepard". Chengdu Living. Retrieved 10 September 2015.

I read Forbes articles 12 years ago on this topic, and you can still google "Forbes Ghost Cities" and find old articles, but at the time of this post they were 404'd and I don't care enough to track down archives for readers who I presume are just going "prove it!" and aren't actually interested in reading. They built cities the size of Omaha and left them vacant for a decade. It doesn't matter that they are occupied now, the 2006 GDP was inflated by their construction. Economics, corporate finance, and money supply has always been a "hobby" of mine so I stay informed on what is going on.

It's simple definitions -- construction boosts GDP, and a jobs program that builds unoccupied cities does bloat the Chinese economic figures with activity that doesn't represent commerce.

Pollution emissions as a proxy for economic activity. March is still significantly reduced (and if you separate whatever !!CHINA!! screed you're aiming at me, you can get a lot of useful information out of this for how the global recession is going to transpire)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...pollution.html

But this discussion is better suited for non-actuarial discussions.

Last edited by HuskerCAS; 03-25-2020 at 01:21 PM..
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  #853  
Old 03-25-2020, 01:20 PM
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Exam related, I still need to complete my first read of Brehms 3-5 but I've been picking a paper everyday and have been working through some questions.

I was pleased to see that I was convinced that I had forgotten Siewart's inverse power tail factor, and the formula I guessed before looking at the solution was the correct one. So some of this is starting to stick.

I also got out my whiteboards in my basement and filled them up with formulas for casual reinforcement throughout the day.
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  #854  
Old 03-25-2020, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by HuskerCAS View Post
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Under-...ments_in_China

Shephard, Wade (2015). Ghost Cities of China: The Story of Cities without People in the World's Most Populated Country. Zed Books. ISBN 9781783602186.
Umberto Bacchi (4 March 2013). "China's Ghost Towns: Deserted Cities Raise Fears of Debt Crisis". International Business Times.
"China's eerie ghost cities a 'symptom' of the country's economic troubles and housing bubble".
Shepard, Wade (1 September 2015). "Ghost Cities of China: A Discussion with Wade Shepard". Chengdu Living. Retrieved 10 September 2015.

I read Forbes articles 12 years ago on this topic, and you can still google "Forbes Ghost Cities" and find old articles, but at the time of this post they were 404'd and I don't care enough to track down archives for readers who I presume are just going "prove it!" and aren't actually interested in reading. They built cities the size of Omaha and left them vacant for a decade. It doesn't matter that they are occupied now, the 2006 GDP was inflated by their construction. Economics, corporate finance, and money supply has always been a "hobby" of mine so I stay informed on what is going on.

It's simple definitions -- construction boosts GDP, and a jobs program that builds unoccupied cities does bloat the Chinese economic figures with activity that doesn't represent commerce.
Well, I want to point out that China is a large country with great diversity in many perspectives. I'm not surprised if this "ghost town" situation happened in some places across China, but it is definitely not the norm. Many cities in China have made big strides in growth and prosperity over the past decade.
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  #855  
Old 03-25-2020, 04:08 PM
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I escaped to my parents house in the suburbs early last week. Very glad I did. NYC looks primed to be the next Italy. Scary stuff.

lol no. I may opt for the refund unless it's pushed to the fall.
I decided to stay. One, don't want risk infecting my family, who are all far more susceptible than I am, and two, the thought of being stuck back at home for the next two months makes me more than happy to be stuck in my tiny studio.
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i like laying in the tube and pretending that i'm dead.
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  #856  
Old 03-30-2020, 09:09 PM
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anyone else still studying everyday? If it goes ahead mid-June, an extra 1.5 months of study can fly by pretty fast
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Old 03-30-2020, 10:02 PM
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Originally Posted by AbedNadir View Post
anyone else still studying everyday? If it goes ahead mid-June, an extra 1.5 months of study can fly by pretty fast
Enjoy your 10 imo
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ASM does not have a discussion of stimulation, but considering how boring the manual is, maybe it would be a good idea.
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Old 03-30-2020, 10:26 PM
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anyone else still studying everyday? If it goes ahead mid-June, an extra 1.5 months of study can fly by pretty fast
I've been sticking to an hour a day on weekdays and very little on weekends, maybe some flipping through flashcards while I do something else.

I think I've got a pretty good grasp on almost all the loss reserving stuff now. I wouldn't say I've mastered it, but I feel I could comfortably get most of the credit on exam questions for it.

I'm still very much not at a good place with respect to Brehm right now though.
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  #859  
Old 03-31-2020, 12:30 AM
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Originally Posted by amp019372 View Post
I've been sticking to an hour a day on weekdays and very little on weekends, maybe some flipping through flashcards while I do something else.

I think I've got a pretty good grasp on almost all the loss reserving stuff now. I wouldn't say I've mastered it, but I feel I could comfortably get most of the credit on exam questions for it.

I'm still very much not at a good place with respect to Brehm right now though.
does it feel like a chore for you to read? it's hard not to run out of stamina
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  #860  
Old 03-31-2020, 12:58 AM
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I'm not sure what this means on page 26 of Brehm,

" One of the more common market-based risk signals - the risk-adjusted discount rate - reflects risk only if there is a time lag. For many kinds of risks, the time aspect is unimportant - the risk is essentially instantaneous ( what is called a jump risk )"

My best guess at the meaning of this is that analysts can try to look at the implied discount rate since Beta is apart of it and you can figure out the non-diversifiable nature of your decisions, but I don't get the time lag aspect and what this is trying to get at.
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