Actuarial Outpost Exam MAS-I October 2018 Discussion
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 CAS Exam S Previously "CAS 3 - specific material" forum

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#21
06-18-2018, 05:21 PM
 mec06e CAS Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 3

I have been using TIA, but I was wondering if anyone would recommend Coaching Actuaries, Mahler or something else?

I think I mainly need to focus on doing more practice problems and it would be nice to have access to a forum for questions.
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#22
06-18-2018, 05:23 PM
 Abraham Weishaus Member SOA AAA Join Date: Oct 2001 Posts: 7,157

Quote:
 Originally Posted by JDeee40 could someone help explain the logic in ASM lesson 14 example 14B? 'express trains arrive in a poisson process at a rate of 4 per hour. Local trains arrive in a poisson rate of 12 per hour. Calculate the probability that at least 4 locals will arrive before 3 express' I understand the probability that a local arrives before express is 4/(4+12) and that the probability of 4 local before 3 express is (6 C 4) (.75^4)(.25^2) but why does he lock it at 6 trains? ...he says the p of 4 or more of the next 6 trains are local is.. (6 C 4) (.75^4)(.25^2) + (6 C 5) (.75^5)(.25^1) + (6 C 6) (.75^6) why do we always expect 6? Couldn't there be 5 local and 2 express...6 local and 2 express...7 local and 2 express?
This question was answered at length in another thread.
But in brief, to solve a probability question involving a set of events, you want to break the set up into mutually exclusive subevents, so that the probability of the set is the sum of the probabilities of the subsets.

By looking at all subsets of what the first 6 trains can be, you achieve this goal.

Your method does not lead to mutually exclusive subevents. For example, LLLLLEEL would be both 5 locals and 2 expresses and 6 locals and 2 expresses.
#23
06-18-2018, 05:58 PM
 MathDoctorG Member Non-Actuary Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: The 'ville College: Cornell Posts: 632

Quote:
 Originally Posted by mec06e I have been using TIA, but I was wondering if anyone would recommend Coaching Actuaries, Mahler or something else? I think I mainly need to focus on doing more practice problems and it would be nice to have access to a forum for questions.
It sounds like you may already be aware of this, as a previous TIA user, but just in case, the MAS-I TIA course has around 1500 problems - most already have a video solution. Also, I answer questions in the TIA MAS-I forum usually within 24 hours.
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#24
06-19-2018, 12:13 AM
 YetAnotherCareerChanger Member CAS Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 2,666

Attempt #2 at this exam, missed it by 1 question which is unbelievably frustrating.
#25
06-20-2018, 05:30 PM
 mec06e CAS Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 3

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MathDoctorG It sounds like you may already be aware of this, as a previous TIA user, but just in case, the MAS-I TIA course has around 1500 problems - most already have a video solution. Also, I answer questions in the TIA MAS-I forum usually within 24 hours.
Thanks, Are more problems being released for the Fall 2018 sitting? In the work problems section I believe there were only 851 problems for Spring 2018.
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#26
06-21-2018, 06:04 PM
 ButtressWOPersonality Member CAS Join Date: Jun 2011 Location: Existential Angst-Ville Studying for 8 College: UMass/BC Posts: 59

All in. Took the last sitting of S. Excited to finally finish this thing and get my ACAS.
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#27
06-21-2018, 06:52 PM
 MathDoctorG Member Non-Actuary Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: The 'ville College: Cornell Posts: 632

Quote:
 Originally Posted by mec06e Thanks, Are more problems being released for the Fall 2018 sitting? In the work problems section I believe there were only 851 problems for Spring 2018.
Yes, some will be added for the new lessons. Right now the counts are 850 for the problem system, another 400 or so in the sample exams and 250 or so more worked out in the lessons.
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